NYSE$CVNA

Carvana Co · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Carvana's Q3 2023 earnings demonstrated significant progress towards profitability, driven by operational efficiencies and unit economic gains.

Carvana reported a decrease in revenue by 18% to $2.773 billion, but achieved a net income of $741 million due to a gain on debt extinguishment. The company also saw an increase in total gross profit by 34% to $482 million and made substantial improvements in total gross profit per unit.

  • Achieved positive net income primarily due to a gain on debt extinguishment.
  • Increased total gross profit by 34% year-over-year.
  • Improved total gross profit per unit to $5,952, up by $2,452 year-over-year.
  • Retail units sold totaled 80,987, a decrease of 21%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.77B

Previous: $3.39B-18.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.50

Previous: -$2.67+81.3%
Retail Units Sold

81.0K

Previous: 102.6K-21.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$69M

Previous: -$451M+84.7%
Free Cash Flow

$713M

Previous: -$734M+197.1%
Net Income

$782M

Previous: -$283M+376.3%
Operating Income

-$3M

Previous: -$332M+99.1%
Gross Profit

$482M

Previous: $359M+34.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$544M

Previous: $316M+72.2%
Total Assets

$7.03B

Previous: $9.62B-27.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$18M

Previous: $15M+20.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Carvana · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.77B

Q3 2023-18.1%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Carvana expects a sequential decline in retail units sold, non-GAAP total GPU above $5,000, and positive Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023, assuming a stable macroeconomic environment. They also anticipate driving significant Total GPU and Adjusted EBITDA in 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Anticipates Non-GAAP Total GPU above $5,000 for the third consecutive quarter.
  • Expects positive Adjusted EBITDA for the third consecutive quarter.
  • Plans to drive significant Total GPU in 2024.
  • Aims to achieve significant Adjusted EBITDA in 2024.
  • Focuses on maintaining relatively stable levels of staffing, advertising, and inventory to bolster unit economics.

Headwinds

  • Expects a sequential decline in retail units sold due to industry and seasonal patterns.
  • Macroeconomic and industry environment continues to be uncertain.
  • Unable to calculate one-time or restructuring expenses which could affect GAAP GPU and Net Income.
  • The environment needs to remain stable for the expectations to hold.
  • No assurance that financing alternatives will be available in the future.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+8.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+6.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+12.7%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

23 / 37 earnings

Positive

+40.7%

Q1 2017

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.3%-4.4%-8.1%
Q4 2025+16.3%-10.1%-22.2%
Q3 2025-8.4%-12.5%+5.8%
Q2 2025+17.0%+5.1%+11.5%
Q1 2025+10.2%+13.1%+31.8%
Q4 2024-12.1%-21.3%-32.2%
Q3 2024+18.5%+8.3%+24.8%
Q2 2024+15.6%+6.8%+18.8%
Q1 2024+40.5%+48.3%+20.6%
Q4 2023+40.1%+62.8%+74.0%
Q3 2023+24.2%+31.5%+35.4%
Q2 2023+17.4%+16.2%-1.5%
Q1 2023+26.7%+67.6%+121.8%
Q4 2022-20.5%-6.5%-18.7%
Q3 2022-35.0%-45.4%-40.1%
Q2 2022+34.6%+18.7%-9.5%
Q1 2022-18.3%-20.2%-67.0%
Q4 2021+34.2%+27.6%+13.1%
Q3 2021-1.2%-1.8%-13.3%
Q2 2021+4.5%+11.8%-0.7%
Q1 2021-11.7%-14.8%-0.3%
Q4 2020-0.5%+10.5%-9.1%
Q3 2020-8.7%-5.9%+22.7%
Q2 2020+33.8%+14.1%+12.2%
Q1 2020+13.6%+17.1%+34.7%
Q4 2019-14.7%-20.8%-52.9%
Q3 2019-10.3%-4.9%+6.0%
Q2 2019+21.2%+31.1%+39.9%
Q1 2019+5.9%-12.4%-11.0%
Q4 2018+10.8%+3.9%+43.4%
Q3 2018+14.3%-2.3%-20.7%
Q2 2018+8.4%+13.8%+30.4%
Q1 2018+7.2%+8.9%+44.3%
Q4 2017-6.3%-3.2%+25.2%
Q3 2017-10.4%-13.3%+34.6%
Q2 2017-2.6%-12.1%+1.0%
Q1 2017+40.7%+47.8%+124.2%
Q4 2016
Q3 2016
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
Q4 2015

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