NYSE$AMR

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported strong Q4 2023 financial results, marked by a team effort to finish the year successfully.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported net income of $176.0 million, or $12.88 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter 2023. Total Adjusted EBITDA was $266.3 million. The company continues to progress on its buyback program, having returned approximately $1.1 billion to shareholders since its inception.

  • Reported fourth quarter net income of $176.0 million, or $12.88 per diluted share.
  • Announced Adjusted EBITDA of $266.3 million for the quarter.
  • Continued progress on the buyback program, with approximately $1.1 billion returned to shareholders since program inception.
  • Announced changes to the company's board of directors.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$960M

Previous: $823M+16.6%
EPS (adj)

$13.05

Previous: $13.37-2.4%
Met Sales Realization per Ton

$183.76

Previous: $186.29-1.4%
Met Cost per Ton

$119.00

Previous: $112.97+5.3%
Met Tons Sold

4.5M

Previous: 3.8M+21.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$61.5M

No prior period
Net Income

$176M

Previous: $221M-20.3%
Operating Income

$213M

Previous: $217M-1.5%
Gross Profit

$240M

Previous: $247M-2.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$9.34M

Previous: $3.38M+176.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Alpha Metallurgical · Revenue · Quarterly

$960M

Q4 2023+16.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alpha Metallurgical · $493M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Export Met Coal
    $271M-35.0%
  • Domestic Met Coal
    $222M+39.2%

Forward guidance

Alpha provided 2024 guidance for metallurgical and thermal coal shipments, committed pricing, and costs per ton.

Tailwinds

  • Metallurgical coal shipment guidance between 15.5 and 16.5 million tons.
  • Thermal coal shipment guidance between 0.9 and 1.3 million tons.
  • SG&A expenses are expected to be between $60 and $66 million.
  • Net cash interest income is projected to be between $2 and $8 million.
  • Expect DD&A between $140 and $160 million.

Headwinds

  • Capital expenditures are projected to be between $210 and $240 million.
  • Capital contributions to equity affiliates are expected to be between $40 and $50 million.
  • Tax rate is projected to be between 12% and 17%.
  • Idle operations expense is projected between $18 and $28 million.
  • The company is unable to present a quantitative reconciliation of its forward-looking non-GAAP cost of coal sales per ton sold financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures without unreasonable efforts.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.2%

Avg return

30 days after

38%

14 / 37 earnings

Positive

+26.4%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-50.4%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%-7.2%+4.1%
Q4 2025-2.6%+8.7%+32.9%
Q3 2025-1.7%-4.7%+2.9%
Q1 2025-8.5%-1.5%-10.8%
Q4 2024-7.4%-10.5%-14.9%
Q3 2024+2.4%+16.1%+17.9%
Q2 2024-3.6%-0.7%-17.7%
Q1 2024-8.5%-13.7%-6.7%
Q4 2023+12.5%-1.0%-17.1%
Q3 2023-1.6%-7.3%+31.4%
Q2 2023+7.5%+10.4%+28.1%
Q1 2023+8.7%+3.9%+4.6%
Q4 2022-4.4%+2.4%-9.8%
Q3 2022-4.0%-13.1%-8.7%
Q2 2022+1.7%+17.9%+15.5%
Q1 2022+5.8%-10.5%+4.9%
Q4 2021+8.8%+14.3%+3.1%
Q3 2021-1.1%-12.5%-22.9%
Q2 2021+12.1%+21.0%+53.7%
Q1 2021+13.9%+4.2%+67.4%
Q4 2020-26.2%-18.9%-5.9%
Q3 2020+10.5%
Q2 2020+26.4%
Q1 2020-5.1%
Q4 2019-30.0%
Q3 2019-50.4%
Q2 2019-11.1%
Q1 2019-5.4%
Q4 2018-4.5%
Q4 2016+3.5%
Q1 2017+3.5%
Q2 2017-3.7%
Q4 2017-3.7%
Q3 2017-3.7%
Q3 2018-2.8%
Q2 2018+3.5%
Q1 2018-0.8%
Q2 2016
Q1 2016

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