NYSE$AMR

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Alpha Metallurgical's financial performance was impacted by challenging events, resulting in lowered shipment guidance for the year, but the team continued to operate safely and advance long-term goals.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported a net income of $93.8 million, or $6.65 per diluted share, for Q3 2023. Adjusted EBITDA was $153.9 million. The company continues its share buyback program, increasing authorization to $1.5 billion, and has completed the transition to a pure-play metallurgical producer.

  • Net income for the third quarter was $93.8 million, or $6.65 per diluted share.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $153.9 million.
  • The share repurchase program saw nearly $940 million returned to shareholders since inception as of October 27, 2023.
  • The share repurchase program authorization was increased by $300 million, bringing the total to $1.5 billion.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$742M

Previous: $870M-14.7%
EPS (adj)

$6.65

Previous: $14.21-53.2%
Met Sales Realization per Ton

$154.73

Previous: $184.31-16.0%
Met Cost per Ton

$109.95

Previous: $104.86+4.9%
Met Tons Sold

4.1M

Previous: 3.9M+5.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$154M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$54.7M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$93.8M

Previous: $253M-62.9%
Net Income

$93.8M

Previous: $253M-62.9%
Operating Income

$117M

Previous: $261M-55.1%
Gross Profit

$177M

Previous: $314M-43.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$296M

Previous: $404M-26.8%
Total Assets

$2.35B

Previous: $2.26B+4.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$3M

Previous: $1.52M+97.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Alpha Metallurgical · Revenue · Quarterly

$742M

Q3 2023-14.7%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alpha Metallurgical · $493M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Export Met Coal
    $271M-35.0%
  • Domestic Met Coal
    $222M+39.2%

Forward guidance

Alpha Metallurgical Resources provided operational guidance for the 2024 calendar year, expecting most financial activity to be within the Met segment. They anticipate shipping 15.5 to 16.5 million metallurgical tons and 0.9 to 1.3 million thermal tons. The cost of coal sales is guided to $110.00 to $116.00 per ton.

Tailwinds

  • Expected shipment of 15.5 to 16.5 million metallurgical tons in 2024.
  • Anticipated net cash interest income of $2 million to $8 million.
  • Depreciation, depletion, and amortization expected between $140 million to $160 million.
  • Tax rate expected to be between 12% to 17%.
  • Solid base of committed tonnage to domestic customers.

Headwinds

  • Cost of coal sales is guided to a range of $110.00 to $116.00 per ton.
  • Selling, general, and administrative costs are projected to be $60 million to $66 million.
  • Idle operations expense is anticipated to be between $18 million and $28 million.
  • Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to be between $210 million and $240 million.
  • Capital contributions to equity affiliates are guided to a 2024 range of $40 million to $50 million.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.2%

Avg return

30 days after

38%

14 / 37 earnings

Positive

+26.4%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-50.4%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%-7.2%+4.1%
Q4 2025-2.6%+8.7%+32.9%
Q3 2025-1.7%-4.7%+2.9%
Q1 2025-8.5%-1.5%-10.8%
Q4 2024-7.4%-10.5%-14.9%
Q3 2024+2.4%+16.1%+17.9%
Q2 2024-3.6%-0.7%-17.7%
Q1 2024-8.5%-13.7%-6.7%
Q4 2023+12.5%-1.0%-17.1%
Q3 2023-1.6%-7.3%+31.4%
Q2 2023+7.5%+10.4%+28.1%
Q1 2023+8.7%+3.9%+4.6%
Q4 2022-4.4%+2.4%-9.8%
Q3 2022-4.0%-13.1%-8.7%
Q2 2022+1.7%+17.9%+15.5%
Q1 2022+5.8%-10.5%+4.9%
Q4 2021+8.8%+14.3%+3.1%
Q3 2021-1.1%-12.5%-22.9%
Q2 2021+12.1%+21.0%+53.7%
Q1 2021+13.9%+4.2%+67.4%
Q4 2020-26.2%-18.9%-5.9%
Q3 2020+10.5%
Q2 2020+26.4%
Q1 2020-5.1%
Q4 2019-30.0%
Q3 2019-50.4%
Q2 2019-11.1%
Q1 2019-5.4%
Q4 2018-4.5%
Q4 2016+3.5%
Q1 2017+3.5%
Q2 2017-3.7%
Q4 2017-3.7%
Q3 2017-3.7%
Q3 2018-2.8%
Q2 2018+3.5%
Q1 2018-0.8%
Q2 2016
Q1 2016

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