NYSE$AMR

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss and Adjusted EBITDA, managed costs effectively, reduced long-term debt, and introduced 2021 guidance.

Contura Energy reported a net loss from continuing operations of $68.6 million for Q3 2020, with an Adjusted EBITDA of $20 million. The company reduced long-term debt by approximately $31 million and achieved historically low CAPP - Met costs. 2021 guidance was introduced.

  • Net loss from continuing operations of $69 million for the third quarter 2020.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $20 million for the third quarter 2020.
  • Strong cost management in all operating segments with historically low CAPP - Met costs.
  • Reduced long-term debt by approximately $31 million in the third quarter of 2020.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$401M

Previous: $526M-23.8%
EPS (adj)

-$3.75

Previous: -$2.29-63.8%
Met Sales Realization per Ton

$73.79

No prior period
Met Cost per Ton

$66.49

No prior period
Met Tons Sold

3.3M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$68.6M

Previous: -$68.5M-0.2%
Net Income

-$68.6M

Previous: -$68.5M-0.2%
Operating Income

-$49M

Previous: -$26.2M-87.0%
Gross Profit

$33.4M

Previous: $58.2M-42.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$161M

Previous: $153M+5.8%
Total Assets

$1.92B

Previous: $2.67B-28.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.08M

Previous: $2.74M-60.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Alpha Metallurgical · Revenue · Quarterly

$401M

Q3 2020-23.8%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 12 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Alpha Metallurgical · $493M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Export Met Coal
    $271M-35.0%
  • Domestic Met Coal
    $222M+39.2%

Forward guidance

Contura Energy introduced 2021 guidance with coal shipments guidance range of 20.4 million tons to 22.2 million tons.

Tailwinds

  • CAPP - Met segment volume expected to be between 13.5 million to 14.5 million tons
  • Pure metallurgical coal shipments of 12.5 million to 13.0 million tons
  • Thermal shipments in this segment of 1.0 million to 1.5 million tons
  • CAPP - Thermal segment volume is anticipated to be between 1.3 million tons to 1.7 million tons
  • NAPP volumes are expected to be in the range of 5.6 million tons to 6.0 million tons

Headwinds

  • Metallurgical 34 % committed/priced at $86.41
  • Thermal 72 % committed/priced at $52.11
  • SG&A $45 to $50 million
  • Cash Interest Expense $51 to $55 million
  • Capital Expenditures $80 to $100 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-2.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+7.4%

Avg return

30 days after

38%

14 / 37 earnings

Positive

+26.4%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-50.4%

Q3 2019

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.8%-7.2%
Q4 2025-2.6%+8.7%+32.9%
Q3 2025-1.7%-4.7%+2.9%
Q1 2025-8.5%-1.5%-10.8%
Q4 2024-7.4%-10.5%-14.9%
Q3 2024+2.4%+16.1%+17.9%
Q2 2024-3.6%-0.7%-17.7%
Q1 2024-8.5%-13.7%-6.7%
Q4 2023+12.5%-1.0%-17.1%
Q3 2023-1.6%-7.3%+31.4%
Q2 2023+7.5%+10.4%+28.1%
Q1 2023+8.7%+3.9%+4.6%
Q4 2022-4.4%+2.4%-9.8%
Q3 2022-4.0%-13.1%-8.7%
Q2 2022+1.7%+17.9%+15.5%
Q1 2022+5.8%-10.5%+4.9%
Q4 2021+8.8%+14.3%+3.1%
Q3 2021-1.1%-12.5%-22.9%
Q2 2021+12.1%+21.0%+53.7%
Q1 2021+13.9%+4.2%+67.4%
Q4 2020-26.2%-18.9%-5.9%
Q3 2020+10.5%
Q2 2020+26.4%
Q1 2020-5.1%
Q4 2019-30.0%
Q3 2019-50.4%
Q2 2019-11.1%
Q1 2019-5.4%
Q4 2018-4.5%
Q4 2016+3.5%
Q1 2017+3.5%
Q2 2017-3.7%
Q4 2017-3.7%
Q3 2017-3.7%
Q3 2018-2.8%
Q2 2018+3.5%
Q1 2018-0.8%
Q2 2016
Q1 2016

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