NASDAQ$UFCS

United Fire Group Inc · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · After market close · Investor relations

Briefing

United Fire Group, Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, driven by increased net income, higher net investment income, and improved combined ratios.

United Fire Group, Inc. announced a significant increase in net income to $31.4 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, up from $19.6 million in the prior year. Diluted EPS rose to $1.21, and adjusted operating income per diluted share reached $1.25. The company achieved its highest level of net written premiums in its 79-year history for the full year, alongside its best annual combined ratio and highest adjusted operating income since 2015.

  • Net income for Q4 2024 increased to $31.4 million, up from $19.6 million in Q4 2023.
  • Net investment income grew by 21.2% to $23.2 million in Q4 2024.
  • The combined ratio improved by 4.8 points to 94.4% in Q4 2024, driven by an improved underlying loss ratio.
  • Net written premiums increased by 13% to $278.5 million in Q4 2024, primarily due to core commercial and assumed reinsurance business.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$333M

Previous: $287M+16.0%
EPS (adj)

$1.25

Previous: $0.65+92.3%
Combined Ratio

94.4%

Previous: 99.2%-4.8%
Underlying Combined Ratio

92.8%

Previous: 94.4%-1.7%
Underlying Loss Ratio

55.7%

Previous: 60.0%-7.2%
Catastrophe Loss Ratio

1.6%

Previous: 1.5%+6.7%
Underwriting Expense Ratio

37.1%

Previous: 34.4%+7.8%
Net Loss Ratio

57.3%

Previous: 64.8%-11.6%
Net Investment Income

$23.2M

Previous: $19.1M+21.2%
Book Value Per Share

$30.80

Previous: $29.04+6.1%
Adjusted Book Value Per Share

$33.64

Previous: $31.69+6.2%
Net Income

$31.4M

Previous: $19.6M+60.4%
Operating Income

$32.5M

Previous: $16.6M+96.1%

Revenue & EPS history

United Fire Group · Revenue · Quarterly

$333M

Q4 2024+16%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

United Fire Group · $222M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Commercial Lines
    $220M+1.7%
  • Personal Lines
    $1.62M+201.3%

Forward guidance

The company anticipates continued strong performance, driven by strategic business plan execution, improved underwriting profitability, and favorable investment returns. They expect fixed maturity portfolio to generate over $80 million of annualized fixed maturity income, with potential for further improvement.

Tailwinds

  • Continued progress in executing the strategic business plan.
  • Anticipated return to underwriting profitability for UFG.
  • Expectation of over $80 million in annualized fixed maturity income from the fixed maturity portfolio.
  • Potential for further improvement in fixed maturity income from future reinvestment at higher rates.
  • Confidence in ability to execute the business plan for improved performance in the years ahead.

Headwinds

  • Elevated expense ratios in Q4 2024 due to investments in talent and policy administration system development.
  • Increased performance-based compensation for employees and agents contributing to higher expenses.
  • Uncertainty from the impact of social inflation on the umbrella loss ratio.
  • Potential for future interest rate changes to impact unrealized gains/losses on investments.
  • Ongoing need to manage catastrophe risk, as evidenced by estimated losses from Southern California wildfires.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+27.4%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.0%+21.7%+13.4%
Q4 2025+7.2%+8.9%+2.0%
Q3 2025+14.7%+17.3%+13.0%
Q1 2025-4.6%-2.4%-0.7%
Q4 2024+2.2%+5.7%+16.2%
Q3 2024+27.4%+25.3%+62.4%
Q2 2024-9.4%-8.1%-1.6%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.8%-8.8%
Q4 2023+12.0%+9.1%-2.6%
Q3 2023-2.5%-1.2%+5.4%
Q2 2023-3.2%-4.4%-8.5%
Q1 2023-10.1%-10.6%-14.0%
Q4 2022-6.4%+1.0%-7.9%
Q3 2022-4.3%+3.4%+6.9%
Q2 2022-13.8%-9.4%-9.6%
Q1 2022-2.3%-4.7%+4.4%
Q4 2021+26.2%+26.8%+23.7%
Q3 2021-3.9%-2.3%-4.1%
Q2 2021+3.9%+9.5%+3.4%
Q1 2021+7.0%+5.4%+1.3%
Q4 2020-2.6%-4.3%+12.9%
Q3 2020-7.7%+0.7%+12.7%
Q2 2020+4.4%+12.1%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.9%-1.7%+15.7%
Q4 2019-0.0%-3.4%-31.1%
Q3 2019-4.7%-5.7%-7.6%
Q2 2019-10.2%-11.5%-12.3%
Q1 2019+6.6%+6.2%+9.0%
Q4 2018-8.9%-13.3%-21.3%
Q3 2018-8.3%-9.9%-2.3%
Q2 2018-11.9%-11.5%-9.8%
Q1 2018+3.5%+1.4%+13.7%
Q4 2017+8.0%+10.9%+18.9%
Q3 2017+1.4%+0.1%+0.1%
Q2 2017-1.4%-1.8%-5.6%
Q1 2017-0.9%-1.8%+0.9%
Q4 2016-14.6%-14.3%-10.0%
Q3 2016-3.3%-1.7%+15.2%
Q2 2016-0.3%+1.3%+3.6%
Q1 2016-11.7%
Q4 2015+8.2%
Q3 2015+8.3%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015+0.7%
Q4 2014-1.6%
Q3 2014-3.9%
Q2 2014-0.8%
Q1 2014-2.0%
Q4 2013+9.4%
Q3 2013-9.6%
Q2 2013+4.9%
Q1 2013+2.1%
Q4 2012+0.8%
Q3 2012-5.3%
Q2 2012+14.3%
Q1 2011+0.8%
Q1 2012+1.8%
Q4 2009-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q4 2010-0.7%
Q3 2010+1.8%
Q3 2011+1.8%
Q2 2011-8.7%
Q2 2010-8.7%
Q1 2010-1.6%

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