NASDAQ$UFCS

United Fire Group Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

United Fire Group reported a net loss for Q4 2020, impacted by social inflation and reserve strengthening, but showed underlying improvements in commercial auto loss frequency and core loss ratio.

United Fire Group reported a consolidated net loss of $8.9 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to a net loss of $23.2 million, or $0.93 per diluted share, for the same period in 2019. The GAAP combined ratio increased to 123.1 percent, and net premiums earned decreased by 3.5 percent. The results were negatively impacted by social inflation and catastrophe losses.

  • Net loss was $8.9 million ($0.36 per diluted share) for Q4 2020, compared to a net loss of $23.2 million ($0.93 per diluted share) for Q4 2019.
  • Adjusted operating loss was $1.30 per diluted share for Q4 2020, compared to an adjusted operating loss of $1.04 per diluted share for Q4 2019.
  • GAAP combined ratio increased to 123.1 percent for Q4 2020, compared to 117.9 percent for Q4 2019.
  • Net premiums earned decreased 3.5 percent to $263.6 million for Q4 2020, compared to $273.2 million for Q4 2019.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$311M

Previous: $293M+6.0%
EPS (adj)

-$1.30

Previous: -$1.04-25.0%
Combined Ratio

123.1%

Previous: 117.9%+4.4%
Book Value Per Share

$32.93

No prior period
Net Income

-$8.89M

Previous: -$23.2M+61.6%
Operating Income

-$32.6M

Previous: -$28.7M-13.6%
Gross Profit

$311M

Previous: $292M+6.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$87.9M

Previous: $121M-27.1%
Total Assets

$3.07B

Previous: $3.01B+1.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.01M

Previous: $904K+12.1%

Revenue & EPS history

United Fire Group · Revenue · Quarterly

$311M

Q4 2020+6%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

United Fire Group · $264M total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • Commercial Lines
    $241M-4.0%
  • Personal Lines
    $13.1M-28.7%
  • Assumed Reinsurance
    $9.73M+138.2%

Forward guidance

UFG remains optimistic about its future, focusing on a new strategic plan, "One UFG boldly forward," to improve profitability through portfolio diversification, sustainable growth, and continuous innovation.

Tailwinds

  • Building the foundation of a new strategic plan to improve profitability.
  • Fifth consecutive quarter with a decrease in the frequency of commercial auto losses.
  • Improvement in core loss ratio despite reserves being established earlier in the claims cycle.
  • Commercial auto average renewal rate increase remained in the double digits at 10.5 percent.
  • Commercial property average renewal rate increase was 7.4 percent.

Headwinds

  • Fourth quarter results were negatively impacted by ongoing social inflation.
  • Increase in severity of current accident year losses and in prior accident year reserve strengthening.
  • Texas and California, are amongst the highest trending social inflation states, meaning the impact to UFG is magnified.
  • Full year results were negatively impacted by a historical level of catastrophe losses.
  • COVID-19 pandemic had some impact to net premiums earned.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+27.4%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.0%+21.7%+13.4%
Q4 2025+7.2%+8.9%+2.0%
Q3 2025+14.7%+17.3%+13.0%
Q1 2025-4.6%-2.4%-0.7%
Q4 2024+2.2%+5.7%+16.2%
Q3 2024+27.4%+25.3%+62.4%
Q2 2024-9.4%-8.1%-1.6%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.8%-8.8%
Q4 2023+12.0%+9.1%-2.6%
Q3 2023-2.5%-1.2%+5.4%
Q2 2023-3.2%-4.4%-8.5%
Q1 2023-10.1%-10.6%-14.0%
Q4 2022-6.4%+1.0%-7.9%
Q3 2022-4.3%+3.4%+6.9%
Q2 2022-13.8%-9.4%-9.6%
Q1 2022-2.3%-4.7%+4.4%
Q4 2021+26.2%+26.8%+23.7%
Q3 2021-3.9%-2.3%-4.1%
Q2 2021+3.9%+9.5%+3.4%
Q1 2021+7.0%+5.4%+1.3%
Q4 2020-2.6%-4.3%+12.9%
Q3 2020-7.7%+0.7%+12.7%
Q2 2020+4.4%+12.1%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.9%-1.7%+15.7%
Q4 2019-0.0%-3.4%-31.1%
Q3 2019-4.7%-5.7%-7.6%
Q2 2019-10.2%-11.5%-12.3%
Q1 2019+6.6%+6.2%+9.0%
Q4 2018-8.9%-13.3%-21.3%
Q3 2018-8.3%-9.9%-2.3%
Q2 2018-11.9%-11.5%-9.8%
Q1 2018+3.5%+1.4%+13.7%
Q4 2017+8.0%+10.9%+18.9%
Q3 2017+1.4%+0.1%+0.1%
Q2 2017-1.4%-1.8%-5.6%
Q1 2017-0.9%-1.8%+0.9%
Q4 2016-14.6%-14.3%-10.0%
Q3 2016-3.3%-1.7%+15.2%
Q2 2016-0.3%+1.3%+3.6%
Q1 2016-11.7%
Q4 2015+8.2%
Q3 2015+8.3%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015+0.7%
Q4 2014-1.6%
Q3 2014-3.9%
Q2 2014-0.8%
Q1 2014-2.0%
Q4 2013+9.4%
Q3 2013-9.6%
Q2 2013+4.9%
Q1 2013+2.1%
Q4 2012+0.8%
Q3 2012-5.3%
Q2 2012+14.3%
Q1 2011+0.8%
Q1 2012+1.8%
Q4 2009-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q4 2010-0.7%
Q3 2010+1.8%
Q3 2011+1.8%
Q2 2011-8.7%
Q2 2010-8.7%
Q1 2010-1.6%

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