NASDAQ$UFCS

United Fire Group Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

United Fire Group reported a net loss for the fourth quarter of 2019, impacted by commercial auto losses.

United Fire Group reported a consolidated net loss of $23.2 million, or $0.93 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2019, compared to a net loss of $29.3 million, or $1.17 per diluted share, for the same period in 2018. The company's results were negatively impacted by commercial auto losses and prior year reserve strengthening in the Gulf Coast Region.

  • Consolidated net loss was $23.2 million ($0.93 per diluted share) for Q4 2019, compared to a net loss of $29.3 million ($1.17 per diluted share) for the same period in 2018.
  • Consolidated adjusted operating loss was $1.04 per diluted share for Q4 2019, compared to an adjusted operating loss of $0.30 per diluted share for the same period in 2018.
  • Net premiums earned increased 0.9 percent to $273.2 million for Q4 2019, compared to $270.7 million in Q4 2018.
  • The GAAP combined ratio increased to 117.9 percent for Q4 2019, compared to 108.5 percent for Q4 2018, driven by an increase in the loss ratio due to commercial auto losses.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$293M

Previous: $252M+16.4%
EPS (adj)

-$1.04

Previous: -$0.30-246.7%
Combined Ratio

117.9%

Previous: 108.5%+8.7%
Catastrophe Loss Ratio

19441000.0%

Previous: 15948000.0%+21.9%
Net Income

-$23.2M

Previous: -$29.3M+21.0%
Operating Income

-$28.7M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$292M

Previous: $262M+11.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$121M

Previous: $64.5M+87.3%
Total Assets

$3.01B

Previous: $2.82B+7.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$904K

Previous: $1.21M-25.2%

Revenue & EPS history

United Fire Group · Revenue · Quarterly

$293M

Q4 2019+16.4%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

United Fire Group · $273M total across 3 segments · Q4 2019

  • Commercial Lines
    $251M
  • Personal Lines
    $18.4M
  • Assumed Reinsurance
    $4.08M

Forward guidance

UFG plans to be more aggressive with non-renewals in 2020 which will reduce their commercial auto unit counts, especially in poor-performing segments, and not write new classes of business that are auto heavy.

Tailwinds

  • Strategic plan initiatives underway in underwriting.
  • Strategic plan initiatives underway in claims.
  • Strategic plan initiatives underway in analytics.
  • Strategic plan initiatives underway in portfolio management.
  • Strategic plan initiatives underway in technology innovation.

Headwinds

  • Commercial auto losses.
  • Prior year reserve strengthening in Gulf Coast Region.
  • Failure to meet expectations.
  • Failure to make an operational profit.
  • Continued escalation of commercial auto losses industry-wide.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+27.4%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.0%+21.7%+13.4%
Q4 2025+7.2%+8.9%+2.0%
Q3 2025+14.7%+17.3%+13.0%
Q1 2025-4.6%-2.4%-0.7%
Q4 2024+2.2%+5.7%+16.2%
Q3 2024+27.4%+25.3%+62.4%
Q2 2024-9.4%-8.1%-1.6%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.8%-8.8%
Q4 2023+12.0%+9.1%-2.6%
Q3 2023-2.5%-1.2%+5.4%
Q2 2023-3.2%-4.4%-8.5%
Q1 2023-10.1%-10.6%-14.0%
Q4 2022-6.4%+1.0%-7.9%
Q3 2022-4.3%+3.4%+6.9%
Q2 2022-13.8%-9.4%-9.6%
Q1 2022-2.3%-4.7%+4.4%
Q4 2021+26.2%+26.8%+23.7%
Q3 2021-3.9%-2.3%-4.1%
Q2 2021+3.9%+9.5%+3.4%
Q1 2021+7.0%+5.4%+1.3%
Q4 2020-2.6%-4.3%+12.9%
Q3 2020-7.7%+0.7%+12.7%
Q2 2020+4.4%+12.1%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.9%-1.7%+15.7%
Q4 2019-0.0%-3.4%-31.1%
Q3 2019-4.7%-5.7%-7.6%
Q2 2019-10.2%-11.5%-12.3%
Q1 2019+6.6%+6.2%+9.0%
Q4 2018-8.9%-13.3%-21.3%
Q3 2018-8.3%-9.9%-2.3%
Q2 2018-11.9%-11.5%-9.8%
Q1 2018+3.5%+1.4%+13.7%
Q4 2017+8.0%+10.9%+18.9%
Q3 2017+1.4%+0.1%+0.1%
Q2 2017-1.4%-1.8%-5.6%
Q1 2017-0.9%-1.8%+0.9%
Q4 2016-14.6%-14.3%-10.0%
Q3 2016-3.3%-1.7%+15.2%
Q2 2016-0.3%+1.3%+3.6%
Q1 2016-11.7%
Q4 2015+8.2%
Q3 2015+8.3%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015+0.7%
Q4 2014-1.6%
Q3 2014-3.9%
Q2 2014-0.8%
Q1 2014-2.0%
Q4 2013+9.4%
Q3 2013-9.6%
Q2 2013+4.9%
Q1 2013+2.1%
Q4 2012+0.8%
Q3 2012-5.3%
Q2 2012+14.3%
Q1 2011+0.8%
Q1 2012+1.8%
Q4 2009-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q4 2010-0.7%
Q3 2010+1.8%
Q3 2011+1.8%
Q2 2011-8.7%
Q2 2010-8.7%
Q1 2010-1.6%

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