NASDAQ$UFCS

United Fire Group Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported third quarter net income of $0.25 per diluted share and adjusted operating income of $0.31 per diluted share.

United Fire Group reported a net income of $6.4 million and adjusted operating income of $0.31 per diluted share for the third quarter of 2023. The results reflect improvements driven by increased earned premium, favorable loss and loss adjustment expense, and higher investment income.

  • Net income of $6.4 million driven by increased earned premium, favorable loss and loss adjustment expense and higher investment income.
  • Net premiums written of $247.7 million increased 0.1% compared to the third quarter of 2022, with core commercial lines growth of 2.7% driven by increasing levels of rate achievement and new business.
  • GAAP combined ratio of 102.1%, including an underlying loss ratio of 60.5% and catastrophe loss ratio of 5.9%. Expense ratio was 35.5%.
  • Net investment income of $16.5 million increased 41.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$274M

Previous: $236M+16.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.31

Previous: -$0.47+166.0%
Combined Ratio

102.1%

Previous: 111.7%-8.6%
Underlying Combined Ratio

96.0%

No prior period
Net Investment Income

$16.5M

Previous: $11.6M+41.8%
Capital Expenditures

-$2.42M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$6.38M

Previous: -$23M+127.8%
Net Income

$6.38M

Previous: -$23M+127.8%
Operating Income

-$113M

Previous: -$136M+17.2%
Gross Profit

-$80.5M

Previous: -$103M+21.8%
Cash & Equivalents

$69.2M

Previous: $53M+30.4%
Total Assets

$2.82B

Previous: $2.82B-0.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$949K

Previous: $828K+14.6%

Revenue & EPS history

United Fire Group · Revenue · Quarterly

$274M

Q3 2023+16.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 11 of 15 quarters(73%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

United Fire Group · $222M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Commercial Lines
    $220M+1.7%
  • Personal Lines
    $1.62M+201.3%

Forward guidance

UFG remains confident in its strategy and in the actions it is taking to position the company for superior financial and operational performance in the long term.

Tailwinds

  • Core commercial new business remained significantly above the prior year period.
  • Average renewal premiums change accelerated to 11.0% in the third quarter, representing the highest level since at least 2018.
  • Rate achievement increased across all lines of business from the second quarter of 2023, excluding workers' compensation, with property rates increasing 17.3%.
  • Other results improved in the third quarter of 2023, including neutral prior period reserve development.
  • Catastrophe losses below long-term averages.

Headwinds

  • Net written premium was flat in the quarter as growth in core commercial and assumed reinsurance business was offset by targeted underwriting action on underperforming segments as well as increased surety reinsurance reinstatement premiums.
  • The third quarter underlying loss ratio of 60.5% included approximately 2.0 points of impact from a small number of large claims and associated reinsurance reinstatement premiums in the surety business.
  • The third quarter expense ratio of 35.5% was also impacted by surety reinstatement premiums that offset ongoing actions to sustainably reduce expenses.
  • Book value per common share decreased 13.0% to $25.53 as of September 30, 2023, compared to December 31, 2022.
  • Net investment gains (losses) was a loss of $1,960,000

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.4%

Avg return

30 days after

43%

28 / 65 earnings

Positive

+27.4%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-14.6%

Q4 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+8.0%+21.7%+13.4%
Q4 2025+7.2%+8.9%+2.0%
Q3 2025+14.7%+17.3%+13.0%
Q1 2025-4.6%-2.4%-0.7%
Q4 2024+2.2%+5.7%+16.2%
Q3 2024+27.4%+25.3%+62.4%
Q2 2024-9.4%-8.1%-1.6%
Q1 2024+1.4%+1.8%-8.8%
Q4 2023+12.0%+9.1%-2.6%
Q3 2023-2.5%-1.2%+5.4%
Q2 2023-3.2%-4.4%-8.5%
Q1 2023-10.1%-10.6%-14.0%
Q4 2022-6.4%+1.0%-7.9%
Q3 2022-4.3%+3.4%+6.9%
Q2 2022-13.8%-9.4%-9.6%
Q1 2022-2.3%-4.7%+4.4%
Q4 2021+26.2%+26.8%+23.7%
Q3 2021-3.9%-2.3%-4.1%
Q2 2021+3.9%+9.5%+3.4%
Q1 2021+7.0%+5.4%+1.3%
Q4 2020-2.6%-4.3%+12.9%
Q3 2020-7.7%+0.7%+12.7%
Q2 2020+4.4%+12.1%-4.7%
Q1 2020-0.9%-1.7%+15.7%
Q4 2019-0.0%-3.4%-31.1%
Q3 2019-4.7%-5.7%-7.6%
Q2 2019-10.2%-11.5%-12.3%
Q1 2019+6.6%+6.2%+9.0%
Q4 2018-8.9%-13.3%-21.3%
Q3 2018-8.3%-9.9%-2.3%
Q2 2018-11.9%-11.5%-9.8%
Q1 2018+3.5%+1.4%+13.7%
Q4 2017+8.0%+10.9%+18.9%
Q3 2017+1.4%+0.1%+0.1%
Q2 2017-1.4%-1.8%-5.6%
Q1 2017-0.9%-1.8%+0.9%
Q4 2016-14.6%-14.3%-10.0%
Q3 2016-3.3%-1.7%+15.2%
Q2 2016-0.3%+1.3%+3.6%
Q1 2016-11.7%
Q4 2015+8.2%
Q3 2015+8.3%
Q2 2015+3.0%
Q1 2015+0.7%
Q4 2014-1.6%
Q3 2014-3.9%
Q2 2014-0.8%
Q1 2014-2.0%
Q4 2013+9.4%
Q3 2013-9.6%
Q2 2013+4.9%
Q1 2013+2.1%
Q4 2012+0.8%
Q3 2012-5.3%
Q2 2012+14.3%
Q1 2011+0.8%
Q1 2012+1.8%
Q4 2009-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.7%
Q4 2010-0.7%
Q3 2010+1.8%
Q3 2011+1.8%
Q2 2011-8.7%
Q2 2010-8.7%
Q1 2010-1.6%

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