NASDAQ$PYPL

PayPal Holdings · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

PayPal's Q4 2020 earnings demonstrated a record year with substantial growth in TPV, revenue, and active accounts.

PayPal reported a strong finish to 2020, marked by significant growth in total payment volume (TPV), revenue, and net new active accounts (NNAs). The company's GAAP EPS and non-GAAP EPS also saw substantial increases, reflecting a year of record performance driven by the accelerated digitization of businesses.

  • Total Payment Volume (TPV) reached $277 billion, a 39% increase, or 36% on an FX-neutral basis.
  • Revenue totaled $6.12 billion, reflecting a 23% growth on both a spot and FX-neutral basis.
  • GAAP EPS was reported at $1.32, a 208% increase, while non-GAAP EPS reached $1.08, up by 29%.
  • The company added 16.0 million Net New Active Accounts (NNAs).

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$6.12B

Previous: $4.96B+23.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.08

Previous: $0.86+25.6%
Total payment volume

$277B

Previous: $199B+39.0%
Active accounts

377.0M

Previous: 305.0M+23.6%
Payment transactions

4.4B

Previous: 3.5B+27.1%
Transactions per account

40.9

Previous: 40.6+0.7%
Capital Expenditures

$226M

Previous: $174M+29.9%
Free Cash Flow

$1.12B

Previous: $1.09B+2.8%
Net Income

$1.57B

Previous: $507M+209.1%
Operating Income

$963M

Previous: $799M+20.5%
Gross Profit

$3.42B

Previous: $2.67B+28.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$4.79B

Previous: $7.35B-34.8%
Total Assets

$70.4B

Previous: $51.3B+37.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$377M

Previous: $285M+32.3%

Revenue & EPS history

PayPal · Revenue · Quarterly

$6.12B

Q4 2020+23.3%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PayPal · $7.42B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Transaction revenue
    $6.65B
  • Other value-added
    $764M

Forward guidance

PayPal anticipates sustained momentum in 2021, projecting strong TPV growth and the addition of approximately 50 million net new active accounts (NNAs) to the platform.

Tailwinds

  • Expects TPV to grow in the high 20’s on a percentage basis for the year.
  • Revenue expected to grow ~19% at current spot rates and ~17% on an FXN basis, to approximately ~$25.5 billion.
  • GAAP EPS is expected to be ~$3.20, compared to $3.54 in FY’20.
  • Non-GAAP EPS is expected to grow ~17%.
  • ~50 million NNAs expected to be added to PayPal’s platform in FY’21.

Headwinds

  • GAAP EPS is expected to be ~$3.20, compared to $3.54 in FY’20, which benefitted from ~$1.24 in net gains on strategic investments.
  • In the first quarter of 2020, GAAP EPS included a net unrealized loss of $0.07 on strategic investments, and an approximate $0.22 of negative impact from taxes primarily related to the acquisition of Honey.
  • In the first quarter of 2020, GAAP and non-GAAP EPS included $0.17 of negative impact from increased credit loss reserves due to macroeconomic projections.
  • Estimated non-GAAP amounts for the three months ending March 31, 2021 reflect adjustments of approximately $590 million, including estimated stock-based compensation expense and related payroll taxes of approximately $440 million.
  • Estimated non-GAAP amounts for the twelve months ending December 31, 2021 reflect adjustments of approximately $2.17 billion, including estimated stock-based compensation expense and related payroll taxes of approximately $1.62 billion.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

28 / 50 earnings

Positive

+16.6%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-22.9%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.3%-10.0%-15.2%
Q4 2025-20.1%-22.8%-9.0%
Q3 2025+4.7%-1.4%-12.0%
Q2 2025-8.7%-14.2%-10.4%
Q1 2025+2.1%+3.6%+9.2%
Q4 2024-13.2%-13.6%-23.9%
Q3 2024-6.4%-7.6%+3.6%
Q2 2024+11.6%+5.2%+24.1%
Q1 2024-1.3%-1.9%-6.7%
Q4 2023-11.9%-5.7%-7.4%
Q3 2023+6.3%+5.4%+15.2%
Q2 2023-15.0%-14.7%-15.8%
Q1 2023-12.1%-17.7%-14.6%
Q4 2022+1.4%-3.1%-7.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%+2.1%-6.0%
Q2 2022+10.6%+7.6%+4.6%
Q1 2022+10.0%+9.4%+1.8%
Q4 2021-22.9%-26.7%-41.1%
Q3 2021-9.0%-7.7%-12.6%
Q2 2021-5.8%-9.8%-7.4%
Q1 2021+0.7%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2020+8.6%+13.3%-4.0%
Q3 2020-3.4%+8.9%+14.2%
Q2 2020+9.2%+11.8%+16.0%
Q1 2020+16.6%+14.8%+24.4%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.0%-7.3%
Q3 2019+7.8%+9.5%+4.5%
Q2 2019-4.2%-7.3%-11.8%
Q1 2019+3.1%+5.2%+2.8%
Q4 2018-2.6%+0.6%+8.4%
Q3 2018+5.9%+9.3%+6.2%
Q2 2018-2.5%-9.9%-1.4%
Q1 2018+1.0%-0.9%+7.5%
Q4 2017-6.4%-10.8%-5.9%
Q3 2017+5.5%+4.4%+13.6%
Q2 2017+3.2%+0.5%+2.9%
Q1 2017+5.5%+6.3%+14.5%
Q4 2016-3.5%-4.6%+3.3%
Q3 2016+9.7%+7.6%-0.4%
Q2 2016-6.6%-5.9%-4.9%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2014-1.4%
Q3 2015-0.1%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q4 2013+2.3%
Q2 2014+2.3%
Q1 2014+2.3%

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