NASDAQ$PYPL

PayPal Holdings · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Delivered solid third quarter performance with revenue and EPS ahead of expectations.

PayPal's Q3 2023 results showed solid performance with 8% revenue growth to $7.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.30, up 20% year-over-year. The company focused on disciplined expense management and capital allocation to drive profitable growth.

  • Total payment volume (TPV) reached $387.7 billion, a 15% increase, or 13% on an FX-neutral basis.
  • Net revenues grew by 8% to $7.4 billion, with a 9% increase on an FX-neutral basis.
  • GAAP operating income increased by 4% to $1.2 billion, while non-GAAP operating income rose by 8% to $1.6 billion.
  • GAAP EPS was $0.93, compared to $1.15 in Q3 2022; non-GAAP EPS was $1.30, up 20% from $1.08 in Q3 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.42B

Previous: $6.85B+8.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.30

Previous: $1.08+20.4%
Total payment volume

$388B

Previous: $337B+15.1%
Active accounts

428.0M

Previous: 432.0M-0.9%
Payment transactions

6.3B

Previous: 5.6B+11.2%
Transactions per account

56.6

Previous: 50.1+13.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$478M

Previous: -$548M+12.8%
Free Cash Flow

$542M

Previous: $782M-30.7%
Net Income

$1.02B

Previous: $1.33B-23.3%
Operating Income

$1.17B

Previous: $1.12B+4.5%
Gross Profit

$7.42B

Previous: $6.85B+8.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$6.82B

Previous: $6.66B+2.4%
Total Assets

$76.4B

Previous: $76.4B+0.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$379M

Previous: $226M+67.7%

Revenue & EPS history

PayPal · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.42B

Q3 2023+8.4%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PayPal · $7.42B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Transaction revenue
    $6.65B
  • Other value-added
    $764M

Forward guidance

PayPal anticipates net revenue growth of ~6-7% for Q4 2023 on a spot basis and ~7-8% on an FXN basis. GAAP EPS is expected to be ~$1.20, with non-GAAP EPS projected to grow ~10% to ~$1.36. For FY 2023, GAAP EPS is now expected to be ~$3.75, and non-GAAP EPS is projected to grow ~21% to ~$4.98.

Tailwinds

  • Net revenues expected to grow ~6%-7% on a spot basis and ~7%-8% FXN for Q4 2023
  • GAAP earnings per diluted share expected to be ~$1.20 for Q4 2023
  • Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share expected to grow ~10% to $1.36 for Q4 2023
  • GAAP earnings per diluted share now expected to be ~$3.75 for FY 2023
  • Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share now expected to grow ~21% to ~$4.98 for FY 2023

Headwinds

  • Q3'23 includes a ~$0.8 billion negative impact from European buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans originated as held for sale (HFS).
  • GAAP EPS includes a positive impact of ~$0.02 from PayPal’s strategic investment portfolio, compared to a positive impact of ~$0.34 in Q3'22
  • GAAP operating margin of 15.7%, declining 59 basis points
  • non-GAAP operating margin of 22.2%, declining 18 basis points
  • 428 million total active accounts, compared to 432 million in Q3'22

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

28 / 50 earnings

Positive

+16.6%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-22.9%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.3%-10.0%-15.2%
Q4 2025-20.1%-22.8%-9.0%
Q3 2025+4.7%-1.4%-12.0%
Q2 2025-8.7%-14.2%-10.4%
Q1 2025+2.1%+3.6%+9.2%
Q4 2024-13.2%-13.6%-23.9%
Q3 2024-6.4%-7.6%+3.6%
Q2 2024+11.6%+5.2%+24.1%
Q1 2024-1.3%-1.9%-6.7%
Q4 2023-11.9%-5.7%-7.4%
Q3 2023+6.3%+5.4%+15.2%
Q2 2023-15.0%-14.7%-15.8%
Q1 2023-12.1%-17.7%-14.6%
Q4 2022+1.4%-3.1%-7.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%+2.1%-6.0%
Q2 2022+10.6%+7.6%+4.6%
Q1 2022+10.0%+9.4%+1.8%
Q4 2021-22.9%-26.7%-41.1%
Q3 2021-9.0%-7.7%-12.6%
Q2 2021-5.8%-9.8%-7.4%
Q1 2021+0.7%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2020+8.6%+13.3%-4.0%
Q3 2020-3.4%+8.9%+14.2%
Q2 2020+9.2%+11.8%+16.0%
Q1 2020+16.6%+14.8%+24.4%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.0%-7.3%
Q3 2019+7.8%+9.5%+4.5%
Q2 2019-4.2%-7.3%-11.8%
Q1 2019+3.1%+5.2%+2.8%
Q4 2018-2.6%+0.6%+8.4%
Q3 2018+5.9%+9.3%+6.2%
Q2 2018-2.5%-9.9%-1.4%
Q1 2018+1.0%-0.9%+7.5%
Q4 2017-6.4%-10.8%-5.9%
Q3 2017+5.5%+4.4%+13.6%
Q2 2017+3.2%+0.5%+2.9%
Q1 2017+5.5%+6.3%+14.5%
Q4 2016-3.5%-4.6%+3.3%
Q3 2016+9.7%+7.6%-0.4%
Q2 2016-6.6%-5.9%-4.9%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2014-1.4%
Q3 2015-0.1%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q4 2013+2.3%
Q2 2014+2.3%
Q1 2014+2.3%

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