NASDAQ$PYPL

PayPal Holdings · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Demonstrated solid growth on top of a record year, teaming up with Amazon to enable customers in the U.S. to pay with Venmo at checkout.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. reported Q3 2021 results with a TPV of $310 billion, a growth of 26%, and 416 million active accounts. Net revenue was $6.18 billion, up 13%, with a GAAP EPS of $0.92 and a non-GAAP EPS of $1.11.

  • TPV reached $310 billion, growing 26%, and 24% on an FX-neutral basis.
  • Net revenue of $6.18 billion, growing 13% on a spot and FXN basis.
  • GAAP EPS of $0.92 compared to $0.86 in Q3’20; non-GAAP EPS of $1.11 compared to $1.07 in Q3’20.
  • Added 13.3 million Net New Active Accounts (NNAs), ending the quarter with 416 million active accounts.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$6.18B

Previous: $5.46B+13.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.11

Previous: $1.07+3.7%
Total payment volume

$310B

Previous: $247B+25.6%
Active accounts

416.0M

Previous: 361.0M+15.2%
Payment transactions

4.9B

Previous: 4.0B+22.1%
Transactions per account

44.2

Previous: 40.1+10.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$695M

Previous: -$640M-8.6%
Free Cash Flow

$392M

Previous: $381M+2.9%
Net Income

$1.09B

Previous: $1.02B+6.5%
Operating Income

$1.04B

Previous: $977M+6.8%
Gross Profit

$6.18B

Previous: $5.46B+13.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$7.78B

Previous: $6.11B+27.3%
Total Assets

$74.5B

Previous: $65.6B+13.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$300M

Previous: $364M-17.6%

Revenue & EPS history

PayPal · Revenue · Quarterly

$6.18B

Q3 2021+13.2%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

PayPal · $7.42B total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Transaction revenue
    $6.65B
  • Other value-added
    $764M

Forward guidance

PayPal provided financial guidance for Q4 2021 and full year 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Net revenue expected to be in the range of ~$6.85 billion to ~$6.95 billion, representing growth of ~12%-14% at current spot rates for Q4 2021.
  • Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to grow ~4% to ~$1.12 for Q4 2021.
  • Expects to add ~55 million NNAs, including ~3 million active accounts from the acquisition of Paidy for FY'21
  • TPV growth to be in the range of ~33%-34% at current spot rates and ~31%-32% on an FXN basis for FY'21.
  • Net revenue to be in the range of ~$25.3 billion to ~$25.4 billion, representing growth of ~18% at current spot rates and ~17% on an FXN basis for FY'21.

Headwinds

  • GAAP diluted earnings per share to be ~$0.79, compared to $1.32 in the prior year period for Q4 2021.
  • GAAP EPS guidance does not include any expectation of net realized and unrealized gains and losses on PayPal’s strategic investment portfolio for Q4 2021.
  • GAAP EPS to be ~$3.62 for FY'21.
  • GAAP EPS guidance includes ~$0.24 of net realized and unrealized gains on PayPal’s strategic investment portfolio for FY'21.
  • Estimated non-GAAP amounts for the twelve months ending December 31, 2021 reflect adjustments of approximately $2.1 billion.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

-0.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.8%

Avg return

5 days after

-1.1%

Avg return

30 days after

56%

28 / 50 earnings

Positive

+16.6%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-22.9%

Q4 2021

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.3%-10.0%-15.2%
Q4 2025-20.1%-22.8%-9.0%
Q3 2025+4.7%-1.4%-12.0%
Q2 2025-8.7%-14.2%-10.4%
Q1 2025+2.1%+3.6%+9.2%
Q4 2024-13.2%-13.6%-23.9%
Q3 2024-6.4%-7.6%+3.6%
Q2 2024+11.6%+5.2%+24.1%
Q1 2024-1.3%-1.9%-6.7%
Q4 2023-11.9%-5.7%-7.4%
Q3 2023+6.3%+5.4%+15.2%
Q2 2023-15.0%-14.7%-15.8%
Q1 2023-12.1%-17.7%-14.6%
Q4 2022+1.4%-3.1%-7.9%
Q3 2022-5.4%+2.1%-6.0%
Q2 2022+10.6%+7.6%+4.6%
Q1 2022+10.0%+9.4%+1.8%
Q4 2021-22.9%-26.7%-41.1%
Q3 2021-9.0%-7.7%-12.6%
Q2 2021-5.8%-9.8%-7.4%
Q1 2021+0.7%-2.6%+5.1%
Q4 2020+8.6%+13.3%-4.0%
Q3 2020-3.4%+8.9%+14.2%
Q2 2020+9.2%+11.8%+16.0%
Q1 2020+16.6%+14.8%+24.4%
Q4 2019+0.5%-0.0%-7.3%
Q3 2019+7.8%+9.5%+4.5%
Q2 2019-4.2%-7.3%-11.8%
Q1 2019+3.1%+5.2%+2.8%
Q4 2018-2.6%+0.6%+8.4%
Q3 2018+5.9%+9.3%+6.2%
Q2 2018-2.5%-9.9%-1.4%
Q1 2018+1.0%-0.9%+7.5%
Q4 2017-6.4%-10.8%-5.9%
Q3 2017+5.5%+4.4%+13.6%
Q2 2017+3.2%+0.5%+2.9%
Q1 2017+5.5%+6.3%+14.5%
Q4 2016-3.5%-4.6%+3.3%
Q3 2016+9.7%+7.6%-0.4%
Q2 2016-6.6%-5.9%-4.9%
Q1 2015-2.1%
Q1 2016+0.9%
Q4 2014+4.3%
Q4 2015+7.1%
Q3 2014-1.4%
Q3 2015-0.1%
Q2 2015+2.3%
Q4 2013+2.3%
Q2 2014+2.3%
Q1 2014+2.3%

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