NASDAQ$NFLX

Netflix, Inc. · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Netflix's Q4 2022 results exceeded expectations with strong membership growth and a successful content slate, while also navigating leadership changes and preparing for paid sharing rollout.

Netflix exceeded its Q4 2022 forecast for revenue, operating profit, and membership growth, driven by a strong content slate and the successful launch of its ad-supported plan. The company reported $7.852 billion in revenue, $550 million in operating income, and 230.75 million paid memberships. Looking ahead, Netflix is focused on reaccelerating revenue growth through paid sharing and advertising initiatives.

  • Q4 revenue, operating profit, and membership growth exceeded forecast, driven by strong streaming engagement, revenue, and profit leadership.
  • The Q4 content slate, including 'Wednesday,' 'Harry & Meghan,' 'Troll,' and 'Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,' outperformed high expectations.
  • The new, lower-priced ad-supported plan launched successfully in November, showing promising early results.
  • Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters are now co-CEOs, with Reed Hastings as Executive Chairman, completing the company's succession process.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$7.85B

Previous: $7.71B+1.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.12

Previous: $1.33-91.0%
Capital Expenditures

$112M

Previous: $166M-32.8%
Free Cash Flow

$332M

Previous: -$569M+158.4%
Net Income

$55.3M

Previous: $607M-90.9%
Operating Income

$550M

Previous: $632M-13.0%
Gross Profit

$2.45B

Previous: $2.47B-0.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$5.15B

Previous: $6.03B-14.6%
Total Assets

$48.6B

Previous: $44.6B+9.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$154M

Previous: $99.3M+54.8%

Revenue & EPS history

Netflix · Revenue · Quarterly

$7.85B

Q4 2022+1.9%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Netflix · $7.82B total across 4 segments · Q4 2022

  • UCAN
    $3.6B+8.6%
  • EMEA
    $2.35B-6.9%
  • LATAM
    $1.02B+5.5%
  • APAC
    $857M-1.6%

Forward guidance

For Q1 2023, Netflix projects revenue growth of 4% (8% on an F/X neutral basis) driven by growth in average paid memberships and ARM. The company anticipates a different quarterly paid net adds pattern in 2023 due to the rollout of paid sharing, with Q2 2023 likely to have greater paid net adds than Q1 2023. For the full year 2023, Netflix expects constant currency revenue growth to accelerate and operating profit growth and margin expansion, targeting an operating margin of 18%-20% based on F/X rates as of January 1, 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue growth of 4% (8% on a F/X neutral basis) is expected in Q1 2023.
  • Growth in average paid memberships and ARM will drive F/X neutral revenue growth.
  • Paid net adds are expected to be modestly positive in Q1 2023.
  • Constant currency revenue growth is expected to accelerate over the course of 2023.
  • Year-over-year operating profit growth and operating margin expansion are anticipated for the full year 2023.

Headwinds

  • Fewer paid net adds are expected in Q1 2023 compared to Q4 2022 due to seasonality and strong member growth in Q4 2022.
  • The rollout of paid sharing may result in some cancel reactions and impact near-term member growth.
  • Near-term engagement, as measured by third parties, could be negatively impacted as some borrowers stop watching.
  • Operating margin is expected to be down year-over-year in Q1 2023 (20% vs. 25%) due to the timing of content spend.
  • Uncertain macroeconomic environment leads to less-than-normal visibility.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.0%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

34 / 73 earnings

Positive

+50.1%

Q4 2012

Best reaction

-33.1%

Q1 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-1.3%-4.6%-7.9%
Q4 2025+2.6%-13.5%-19.2%
Q3 2025-5.1%-11.8%-16.0%
Q2 2025-5.1%-7.6%-2.8%
Q1 2025+1.5%+7.9%+22.5%
Q4 2024+11.2%+13.9%+19.4%
Q3 2024+8.8%+8.9%+17.4%
Q2 2024-2.2%-0.7%+4.1%
Q1 2024-9.6%-5.9%+1.2%
Q4 2023+12.2%+17.4%+21.2%
Q3 2023+12.9%+14.4%+31.0%
Q2 2023-7.9%-9.8%-14.8%
Q1 2023-2.9%-1.4%+11.6%
Q4 2022+5.0%+11.5%+6.6%
Q3 2022+11.1%+18.1%+20.5%
Q2 2022+13.4%+15.5%+28.4%
Q1 2022-33.1%-36.2%-45.7%
Q4 2021-22.9%-29.0%-24.1%
Q3 2021-2.0%+4.2%+6.9%
Q2 2021-3.5%-3.2%+2.1%
Q1 2021-8.2%-8.8%-9.5%
Q4 2020+17.7%+13.5%+10.1%
Q3 2020-7.9%-8.0%-8.7%
Q2 2020-5.8%-6.3%-7.8%
Q1 2020-3.7%-2.9%-0.3%
Q4 2019-4.0%+4.0%+13.6%
Q3 2019+3.2%-2.2%+3.8%
Q2 2019-11.1%-15.1%-17.3%
Q1 2019+1.7%+3.3%+3.0%
Q4 2018-3.5%-7.5%+1.6%
Q3 2018+9.5%-0.1%-12.9%
Q2 2018-4.1%-8.8%-17.5%
Q1 2018+7.8%+5.2%+5.3%
Q4 2017+13.5%+24.6%+27.5%
Q3 2017-0.0%-2.7%-3.7%
Q2 2017+14.0%+17.0%+5.5%
Q1 2017+0.3%-0.0%+7.2%
Q4 2016+4.2%+3.4%+7.0%
Q3 2016+17.1%+25.7%+13.5%
Q2 2016-12.8%-12.7%-2.1%
Q1 2016-15.4%
Q4 2015+3.6%
Q3 2015-7.9%
Q2 2015+15.4%
Q1 2015+17.4%
Q4 2014+21.3%
Q3 2014-19.5%
Q2 2014-2.9%
Q1 2014+7.9%
Q4 2013+18.3%
Q3 2013-3.3%
Q2 2013-5.4%
Q1 2013+32.8%
Q4 2012+50.1%
Q3 2012-9.8%
Q2 2012-24.6%
Q1 2012-17.4%
Q4 2011-5.2%
Q3 2011+6.0%
Q2 2011-0.1%
Q1 2011+1.7%
Q4 2010-6.0%
Q3 2010+7.0%
Q2 2010-2.4%
Q1 2009+1.1%
Q1 2010-0.1%
Q4 2009-3.5%
Q4 2007-3.5%
Q3 2008-1.2%
Q3 2009-1.2%
Q2 2008+3.1%
Q2 2009+3.1%
Q4 2008+3.1%

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