NASDAQ$NFLX
Netflix, Inc. · Q3 2022 earnings
Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Revenue, operating income and membership slightly exceeded forecast in Q3’22.
Netflix's Q3 2022 results showed slight exceedance of forecasts in revenue, operating income, and membership. The company launched highly watched series and films. Netflix estimates competitors are losing money, with combined 2022 operating losses well over $10 billion, vs. Netflix's $5 to $6 billion annual operating profit. After a challenging first half, Netflix believes it’s on a path to reaccelerate growth.
- Revenue, operating income and membership slightly exceeded forecast in Q3’22.
- Netflix had big hits across TV and film in Q3 – launching some of the most watched series and films of all time.
- Lower priced ad-supported plan launches in 12 countries in November – just six months after initial announcement; existing plans remain ad free.
- Netflix has higher engagement than any other streamer – with room for growth.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Netflix · Revenue · Quarterly
$7.93B
Revenue by segment
Netflix · $7.89B total across 4 segments · Q3 2022
- UCAN$3.6B+10.6%45.6%
- EMEA$2.38B-2.3%30.1%
- LATAM$1.02B+11.9%13.0%
- APAC$889M+6.6%11.3%
Forward guidance
For Q4’22, Netflix is expecting revenue of $7.8 billion. Revenue growth forecast is driven by expectation for 4.5m paid net adds and ARM growth of 6% year-over-year, excluding F/X. Netflix forecast Q4’22 operating margin of 4%.
Tailwinds
- Revenue growth forecast is driven by expectation for 4.5m paid net adds
- ARM growth of 6% year-over-year, excluding F/X.
- Very optimistic about new advertising business.
- New members have more choice.
- Profile transfer option should be popular.
Headwinds
- Sequential decline entirely due to the continued strengthening of the US dollar vs. other currencies.
- Macroeconomic weakness which leads to less-than-normal visibility.
- Don’t expect a material contribution in Q4’22 as launching Basic with Ads plan intra-quarter and anticipate growing membership in that plan gradually over time.
- The fourth quarter is typically the lowest operating margin quarter of the year as it’s usually the largest quarter in terms of content and marketing spend.
- The aforementioned F/X impact has a high flow through to operating income (~75%-80% of the revenue impact) as most of costs are in US dollars.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022
+1.0%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.2%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.0%
Avg return
30 days after
47%
34 / 73 earnings
Positive
+50.1%
Q4 2012
Best reaction
-33.1%
Q1 2022
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -1.3% | -4.6% | -7.9% | |
| Q4 2025 | +2.6% | -13.5% | -19.2% | |
| Q3 2025 | -5.1% | -11.8% | -16.0% | |
| Q2 2025 | -5.1% | -7.6% | -2.8% | |
| Q1 2025 | +1.5% | +7.9% | +22.5% | |
| Q4 2024 | +11.2% | +13.9% | +19.4% | |
| Q3 2024 | +8.8% | +8.9% | +17.4% | |
| Q2 2024 | -2.2% | -0.7% | +4.1% | |
| Q1 2024 | -9.6% | -5.9% | +1.2% | |
| Q4 2023 | +12.2% | +17.4% | +21.2% | |
| Q3 2023 | +12.9% | +14.4% | +31.0% | |
| Q2 2023 | -7.9% | -9.8% | -14.8% | |
| Q1 2023 | -2.9% | -1.4% | +11.6% | |
| Q4 2022 | +5.0% | +11.5% | +6.6% | |
| Q3 2022 | +11.1% | +18.1% | +20.5% | |
| Q2 2022 | +13.4% | +15.5% | +28.4% | |
| Q1 2022 | -33.1% | -36.2% | -45.7% | |
| Q4 2021 | -22.9% | -29.0% | -24.1% | |
| Q3 2021 | -2.0% | +4.2% | +6.9% | |
| Q2 2021 | -3.5% | -3.2% | +2.1% | |
| Q1 2021 | -8.2% | -8.8% | -9.5% | |
| Q4 2020 | +17.7% | +13.5% | +10.1% | |
| Q3 2020 | -7.9% | -8.0% | -8.7% | |
| Q2 2020 | -5.8% | -6.3% | -7.8% | |
| Q1 2020 | -3.7% | -2.9% | -0.3% | |
| Q4 2019 | -4.0% | +4.0% | +13.6% | |
| Q3 2019 | +3.2% | -2.2% | +3.8% | |
| Q2 2019 | -11.1% | -15.1% | -17.3% | |
| Q1 2019 | +1.7% | +3.3% | +3.0% | |
| Q4 2018 | -3.5% | -7.5% | +1.6% | |
| Q3 2018 | +9.5% | -0.1% | -12.9% | |
| Q2 2018 | -4.1% | -8.8% | -17.5% | |
| Q1 2018 | +7.8% | +5.2% | +5.3% | |
| Q4 2017 | +13.5% | +24.6% | +27.5% | |
| Q3 2017 | -0.0% | -2.7% | -3.7% | |
| Q2 2017 | +14.0% | +17.0% | +5.5% | |
| Q1 2017 | +0.3% | -0.0% | +7.2% | |
| Q4 2016 | +4.2% | +3.4% | +7.0% | |
| Q3 2016 | +17.1% | +25.7% | +13.5% | |
| Q2 2016 | -12.8% | -12.7% | -2.1% | |
| Q1 2016 | -15.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -7.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +15.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | +17.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +21.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | -19.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +7.9% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +18.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -5.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | +32.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +50.1% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | -9.8% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | -24.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -17.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -5.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | +6.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -0.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +1.7% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | -6.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | +7.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2009 | +1.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | -0.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | -3.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2007 | -3.5% | — | — | |
| Q3 2008 | -1.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | -1.2% | — | — | |
| Q2 2008 | +3.1% | — | — | |
| Q2 2009 | +3.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | +3.1% | — | — |
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