NASDAQ$NFLX
Netflix, Inc. · Q3 2023 earnings
Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations
Briefing
Netflix's Q3 2023 financials aligned with or exceeded forecasts, demonstrating strong growth in revenue, paid net additions, and operating margin.
Netflix reported Q3 2023 revenue of $8.5 billion, with 9 million paid net additions and an operating margin of 22.4%. The company increased its FY23 free cash flow forecast to approximately $6.5 billion and repurchased $2.5 billion in shares. Adoption of the ads plan continues to grow, with membership up almost 70% quarter-over-quarter.
- Q3 financials were in line with or ahead of forecast with revenue of $8.5B, paid net adds of 9M and operating margin of 22.4%.
- FY23 free cash flow is now expected to be ~$6.5B, up from the prior forecast of at least $5B.
- Adoption of the ads plan continues to grow, with ads plan membership up almost 70% quarter-over-quarter.
- The company repurchased $2.5B of shares in Q3 and increased the buyback authorization by $10B.
Headline financials
Revenue & EPS history
Netflix · Revenue · Quarterly
$8.54B
Revenue by segment
Netflix · $8.52B total across 4 segments · Q3 2023
- UCAN$3.74B+3.7%43.8%
- EMEA$2.69B+13.3%31.6%
- LATAM$1.14B+11.6%13.4%
- APAC$948M+6.6%11.1%
Forward guidance
Netflix forecasts Q4 2023 revenue of $8.7 billion, up 11% year-over-year, and expects paid net additions will be similar to Q3 2023. The FY23 operating margin guidance forecast is updated to 20%.
Tailwinds
- Q4’23 revenue of $8.7B, up 11% year-over-year, or 12% on an F/X neutral basis.
- For the fourth quarter, paid net additions will be similar to Q3’23 (+/- a few million).
- Updating FY23 operating margin guidance forecast to 20%, the high end of the prior 18% to 20% forecast.
- Assuming no material swing in F/X rates, we currently expect an operating margin in FY24 of 22% to 23%.
- Expects cash content spend of up to ~$17B in 2024.
Headwinds
- Global ARM in Q4 is expected to be roughly flat year-over-year, primarily due to limited price increases over the last eighteen months.
- The US dollar strengthened versus other currencies, representing a roughly $200M expected drag on Q4 revenue and ARM.
- The strikes will create some lumpiness in FCF over the 2023/2024 period.
- Negotiations with SAG-AFTRA are ongoing.
- Ad revenue would not be material to our business in 2023.
Historical earnings impact
How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.
Avg. return before/after earnings
Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023
+1.0%
Avg return
Earnings day
+0.2%
Avg return
5 days after
+2.0%
Avg return
30 days after
47%
34 / 73 earnings
Positive
+50.1%
Q4 2012
Best reaction
-33.1%
Q1 2022
Worst reaction
| Quarter | Report date | Reaction (Day 0) | +5 days | +30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -1.3% | -4.6% | -7.9% | |
| Q4 2025 | +2.6% | -13.5% | -19.2% | |
| Q3 2025 | -5.1% | -11.8% | -16.0% | |
| Q2 2025 | -5.1% | -7.6% | -2.8% | |
| Q1 2025 | +1.5% | +7.9% | +22.5% | |
| Q4 2024 | +11.2% | +13.9% | +19.4% | |
| Q3 2024 | +8.8% | +8.9% | +17.4% | |
| Q2 2024 | -2.2% | -0.7% | +4.1% | |
| Q1 2024 | -9.6% | -5.9% | +1.2% | |
| Q4 2023 | +12.2% | +17.4% | +21.2% | |
| Q3 2023 | +12.9% | +14.4% | +31.0% | |
| Q2 2023 | -7.9% | -9.8% | -14.8% | |
| Q1 2023 | -2.9% | -1.4% | +11.6% | |
| Q4 2022 | +5.0% | +11.5% | +6.6% | |
| Q3 2022 | +11.1% | +18.1% | +20.5% | |
| Q2 2022 | +13.4% | +15.5% | +28.4% | |
| Q1 2022 | -33.1% | -36.2% | -45.7% | |
| Q4 2021 | -22.9% | -29.0% | -24.1% | |
| Q3 2021 | -2.0% | +4.2% | +6.9% | |
| Q2 2021 | -3.5% | -3.2% | +2.1% | |
| Q1 2021 | -8.2% | -8.8% | -9.5% | |
| Q4 2020 | +17.7% | +13.5% | +10.1% | |
| Q3 2020 | -7.9% | -8.0% | -8.7% | |
| Q2 2020 | -5.8% | -6.3% | -7.8% | |
| Q1 2020 | -3.7% | -2.9% | -0.3% | |
| Q4 2019 | -4.0% | +4.0% | +13.6% | |
| Q3 2019 | +3.2% | -2.2% | +3.8% | |
| Q2 2019 | -11.1% | -15.1% | -17.3% | |
| Q1 2019 | +1.7% | +3.3% | +3.0% | |
| Q4 2018 | -3.5% | -7.5% | +1.6% | |
| Q3 2018 | +9.5% | -0.1% | -12.9% | |
| Q2 2018 | -4.1% | -8.8% | -17.5% | |
| Q1 2018 | +7.8% | +5.2% | +5.3% | |
| Q4 2017 | +13.5% | +24.6% | +27.5% | |
| Q3 2017 | -0.0% | -2.7% | -3.7% | |
| Q2 2017 | +14.0% | +17.0% | +5.5% | |
| Q1 2017 | +0.3% | -0.0% | +7.2% | |
| Q4 2016 | +4.2% | +3.4% | +7.0% | |
| Q3 2016 | +17.1% | +25.7% | +13.5% | |
| Q2 2016 | -12.8% | -12.7% | -2.1% | |
| Q1 2016 | -15.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2015 | +3.6% | — | — | |
| Q3 2015 | -7.9% | — | — | |
| Q2 2015 | +15.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2015 | +17.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2014 | +21.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2014 | -19.5% | — | — | |
| Q2 2014 | -2.9% | — | — | |
| Q1 2014 | +7.9% | — | — | |
| Q4 2013 | +18.3% | — | — | |
| Q3 2013 | -3.3% | — | — | |
| Q2 2013 | -5.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2013 | +32.8% | — | — | |
| Q4 2012 | +50.1% | — | — | |
| Q3 2012 | -9.8% | — | — | |
| Q2 2012 | -24.6% | — | — | |
| Q1 2012 | -17.4% | — | — | |
| Q4 2011 | -5.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2011 | +6.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2011 | -0.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2011 | +1.7% | — | — | |
| Q4 2010 | -6.0% | — | — | |
| Q3 2010 | +7.0% | — | — | |
| Q2 2010 | -2.4% | — | — | |
| Q1 2009 | +1.1% | — | — | |
| Q1 2010 | -0.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2009 | -3.5% | — | — | |
| Q4 2007 | -3.5% | — | — | |
| Q3 2008 | -1.2% | — | — | |
| Q3 2009 | -1.2% | — | — | |
| Q2 2008 | +3.1% | — | — | |
| Q2 2009 | +3.1% | — | — | |
| Q4 2008 | +3.1% | — | — |
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