NASDAQ$GERN

Geron Corp · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported business updates, upcoming milestones and financial results.

Geron Corporation reported a net loss of $42.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2022 and ended the year with $173.1 million in cash and marketable securities. The company is focused on completing regulatory submissions for imetelstat in lower risk MDS and preparing for its potential commercial launch in the U.S.

  • Positive top-line results were reported for IMerge Phase 3.
  • The company plans to complete and submit a U.S. New Drug Application (NDA) and a European Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for imetelstat in lower risk MDS in 2023.
  • Geron is implementing operational items needed to prepare for potential commercial launch of imetelstat in lower risk MDS in the U.S.
  • Progress continues to be made on recruiting and enrolling patients into IMpactMF, the imetelstat Phase 3 trial in relapsed/refractory MF.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$103K

Previous: $1.04M-90.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.10

Previous: -$0.10+0.0%
Capital Expenditures

$140K

Previous: $103K+35.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$35.3M

Previous: -$22.3M-58.6%
Net Income

-$42.6M

Previous: -$32M-33.2%
Operating Income

-$42M

Previous: -$32M-31.1%
Gross Profit

-$126K

Previous: $814K-115.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$57.2M

Previous: $35.2M+62.4%
Total Assets

$191M

Previous: $226M-15.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.19M

Previous: $2.31M-5.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Geron · Revenue · Quarterly

$103K

Q4 2022-90.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 6 of 14 quarters(43%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Geron · $164K total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Royalties
    $164K

Forward guidance

For fiscal year 2023, Geron expects total expenses to be between $210 million and $220 million under GAAP, and non-GAAP total expenses to be between $200 million and $210 million.

Tailwinds

  • Costs to support planned regulatory submissions in 2023
  • Continued support of ongoing clinical trials
  • Manufacturing commercial inventory of imetelstat
  • Preparations for potential U.S. commercial launch of imetelstat in lower risk MDS
  • Projected increases in headcount

Headwinds

  • The financial guidance reflects projected increases in interest payments on outstanding debt.
  • The company is facing increasing interest rates.
  • The company anticipates higher personnel-related expenses for additional headcount.
  • The company is incurring costs for commercial preparatory activities.
  • The company's portion of settlement costs related to class action and derivative lawsuits is increasing expenses.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.2%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

27 / 64 earnings

Positive

+35.3%

Q4 2013

Best reaction

-32.1%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.2%-15.8%-29.1%
Q4 2025-11.3%-20.5%-28.2%
Q3 2025-4.5%+0.9%+13.9%
Q1 2025-0.8%-3.0%+21.2%
Q4 2024-32.1%-27.8%-30.4%
Q3 2024-0.5%-7.0%-8.0%
Q2 2024+3.1%+0.2%-6.8%
Q1 2024-3.7%-5.1%-13.0%
Q4 2023-3.4%+0.5%+59.4%
Q3 2023+2.6%-1.0%+3.1%
Q2 2023-7.5%-7.5%-22.5%
Q1 2023+9.9%+6.0%+27.7%
Q4 2022-3.4%-10.7%-24.8%
Q3 2022-2.3%+0.9%+7.0%
Q2 2022+8.3%+2.3%+22.1%
Q1 2022+13.8%+11.5%+8.5%
Q4 2021+0.9%-3.7%+46.3%
Q3 2021-9.3%-8.7%-21.5%
Q2 2021+4.9%+4.1%+11.5%
Q1 2021+4.5%+7.5%+12.8%
Q4 2020-6.0%-3.3%-19.1%
Q3 2020-4.8%-0.5%-2.7%
Q2 2020-2.3%-7.0%+6.4%
Q1 2020-1.8%+0.0%+17.7%
Q4 2019-6.8%-7.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019+0.7%+0.0%+2.0%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.8%+16.7%
Q1 2019-0.6%-3.3%-19.9%
Q4 2018+0.7%+7.7%+27.3%
Q3 2018+9.2%+7.8%+5.2%
Q2 2018+4.5%+4.8%+63.6%
Q1 2018-9.9%-10.9%-2.1%
Q4 2017+24.7%+43.4%+10.6%
Q3 2017-8.9%-8.4%-14.2%
Q2 2017-7.1%-8.4%-5.8%
Q1 2017+0.8%+11.7%+4.7%
Q4 2016+2.3%-0.9%+5.6%
Q3 2016+2.7%+2.2%+8.6%
Q2 2016-0.4%+0.0%+1.1%
Q1 2016-2.2%
Q4 2015-4.2%
Q3 2015+3.4%
Q2 2015-7.8%
Q1 2015+3.1%
Q4 2014-7.0%
Q3 2014+20.2%
Q2 2014-5.3%
Q1 2014-6.4%
Q4 2013+35.3%
Q3 2013+28.2%
Q2 2013+14.6%
Q1 2013-1.8%
Q4 2012-5.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012+3.8%
Q1 2012-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-15.6%
Q1 2011+0.0%
Q4 2010+1.7%
Q3 2010-4.5%
Q2 2010+26.4%
Q1 2010+3.2%

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