NASDAQ$GERN

Geron Corp · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2020.

Geron Corporation reported a net loss of $19.7 million, or $0.06 per share, for the third quarter of 2020. As of September 30, 2020, the company had approximately $274 million in cash and investments, which is expected to be sufficient for operations until the end of 2022.

  • Advanced enrollment in the ongoing IMerge Phase 3 clinical trial and start-up activities for the upcoming Phase 3 clinical trial in refractory myelofibrosis (IMpactMF).
  • Secured European orphan drug designation in lower risk MDS.
  • Received acceptance for presentation of all ten abstracts submitted to the ASH Annual Meeting.
  • Strengthened balance sheet with a loan facility providing additional financial flexibility.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$108K

Previous: $131K-17.6%
EPS (adj)

-$0.06

Previous: -$0.08+25.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$390K

Previous: -$324K-20.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$20M

Previous: -$15.5M-29.3%
Net Income

-$19.7M

Previous: -$15.2M-29.5%
Operating Income

-$20M

Previous: -$16M-25.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$45M

No prior period
Total Assets

$286M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Geron · Revenue · Quarterly

$108K

Q3 2020-17.6%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 7 of 15 quarters(47%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Geron · $164K total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Royalties
    $164K

Forward guidance

Geron expects its 2020 operating expense burn to range from $70 to $75 million. Enrollment in the IMerge Phase 3 trial is expected to be complete in the second quarter of 2021, with top-line results available in the second half of 2022. The IMpactMF Phase 3 clinical trial is expected to be open for screening and enrollment in the first quarter of 2021.

Tailwinds

  • IMpactMF will be open for screening and enrollment in the first quarter of 2021.
  • The loan facility is available through the end of 2022 subject to the achievement of certain clinical, financial and regulatory milestones.
  • Top-line results for IMerge will be available in the second half of 2022.
  • Almost all of the new IMerge sites will be open for screening and enrollment by the end of 2020.
  • Under current planning assumptions, for IMpactMF Geron expects to complete patient enrollment in the second half of 2022, conduct an interim analysis in the first half of 2023 and conduct a final analysis in the first half of 2024.

Headwinds

  • The recent resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic is causing an uncertain and unpredictable impact on clinical trial activities.
  • The trial will most likely be fully enrolled in the second quarter of 2021.
  • The anticipated timing is subject to potential delays or interruptions associated with the evolving effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which causes unpredictability when projecting future enrollment trends.
  • Geron will need to raise substantial capital in order to complete the development and commercialization of imetelstat.
  • Whether there are failures or delays in manufacturing sufficient quantities of imetelstat or other clinical trial materials in a timely manner, whether due to the current or evolving effects of the COVID-19 pandemic or otherwise.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.2%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

27 / 64 earnings

Positive

+35.3%

Q4 2013

Best reaction

-32.1%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.2%-15.8%-29.1%
Q4 2025-11.3%-20.5%-28.2%
Q3 2025-4.5%+0.9%+13.9%
Q1 2025-0.8%-3.0%+21.2%
Q4 2024-32.1%-27.8%-30.4%
Q3 2024-0.5%-7.0%-8.0%
Q2 2024+3.1%+0.2%-6.8%
Q1 2024-3.7%-5.1%-13.0%
Q4 2023-3.4%+0.5%+59.4%
Q3 2023+2.6%-1.0%+3.1%
Q2 2023-7.5%-7.5%-22.5%
Q1 2023+9.9%+6.0%+27.7%
Q4 2022-3.4%-10.7%-24.8%
Q3 2022-2.3%+0.9%+7.0%
Q2 2022+8.3%+2.3%+22.1%
Q1 2022+13.8%+11.5%+8.5%
Q4 2021+0.9%-3.7%+46.3%
Q3 2021-9.3%-8.7%-21.5%
Q2 2021+4.9%+4.1%+11.5%
Q1 2021+4.5%+7.5%+12.8%
Q4 2020-6.0%-3.3%-19.1%
Q3 2020-4.8%-0.5%-2.7%
Q2 2020-2.3%-7.0%+6.4%
Q1 2020-1.8%+0.0%+17.7%
Q4 2019-6.8%-7.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019+0.7%+0.0%+2.0%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.8%+16.7%
Q1 2019-0.6%-3.3%-19.9%
Q4 2018+0.7%+7.7%+27.3%
Q3 2018+9.2%+7.8%+5.2%
Q2 2018+4.5%+4.8%+63.6%
Q1 2018-9.9%-10.9%-2.1%
Q4 2017+24.7%+43.4%+10.6%
Q3 2017-8.9%-8.4%-14.2%
Q2 2017-7.1%-8.4%-5.8%
Q1 2017+0.8%+11.7%+4.7%
Q4 2016+2.3%-0.9%+5.6%
Q3 2016+2.7%+2.2%+8.6%
Q2 2016-0.4%+0.0%+1.1%
Q1 2016-2.2%
Q4 2015-4.2%
Q3 2015+3.4%
Q2 2015-7.8%
Q1 2015+3.1%
Q4 2014-7.0%
Q3 2014+20.2%
Q2 2014-5.3%
Q1 2014-6.4%
Q4 2013+35.3%
Q3 2013+28.2%
Q2 2013+14.6%
Q1 2013-1.8%
Q4 2012-5.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012+3.8%
Q1 2012-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-15.6%
Q1 2011+0.0%
Q4 2010+1.7%
Q3 2010-4.5%
Q2 2010+26.4%
Q1 2010+3.2%

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