NASDAQ$GERN

Geron Corp · Q3 2021 earnings

Q3 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Geron reported a net loss for Q3 2021, highlighted the potential of Imetelstat, and summarized key takeaways from its Investor Event.

Geron Corporation reported its Q3 2021 financial results, including a net loss of $26.7 million, and summarized key highlights from its Investor Event, where the company emphasized the disease-modifying activity of Imetelstat and its potential in treating hematologic malignancies.

  • Imetelstat shows strong evidence of disease-modifying activity.
  • Phase 3 development programs in lower risk MDS and refractory MF are underway.
  • New programs are expanding potential indications and combination opportunities for Imetelstat.
  • Company estimates potential peak revenue of more than $3 billion for imetelstat from the United States and the five largest countries in the European Union.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$109K

Previous: $108K+0.9%
EPS (adj)

-$0.08

Previous: -$0.06-33.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$104K

Previous: -$390K+73.3%
Free Cash Flow

-$26.8M

Previous: -$20M-33.7%
Net Income

-$26.7M

Previous: -$19.7M-35.9%
Operating Income

-$25.7M

Previous: -$20M-28.3%
Gross Profit

$1.23M

No prior period
Cash & Equivalents

$29M

Previous: $45M-35.4%
Total Assets

$229M

Previous: $286M-19.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.01M

No prior period

Revenue & EPS history

Geron · Revenue · Quarterly

$109K

Q3 2021+0.9%vs Q3 2020
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Geron · $164K total across 1 segment · Q3 2023

  • Royalties
    $164K

Forward guidance

Geron anticipates several key milestones and developments in the near future, including the availability of top-line results from the IMerge Phase 3 trial, the opening of the first clinical site for IMproveMF, the initiation of IMpress and TELOMERE trials, and the availability of preliminary results from the preclinical program in lymphoid malignancies.

Tailwinds

  • Top-line results from IMerge Phase 3 are expected at the beginning of January 2023.
  • Interim analysis for IMpactMF is expected in 2024, and the final analysis in 2025.
  • The first clinical site for IMproveMF is expected to open in the first half of 2022.
  • IMpress is expected to begin in the first half of 2022.
  • TELOMERE is expected to begin in the first half of 2022.

Headwinds

  • The COVID-19 pandemic could materially and adversely impact Geron’s business and business prospects.
  • Geron faces potential delays and other adverse impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Regulatory authorities may not permit the further development of imetelstat on a timely basis, or at all, without any clinical holds.
  • Future efficacy or safety results may cause the benefit-risk profile of imetelstat to become unacceptable.
  • There may be failures or delays in manufacturing or supplying sufficient quantities of imetelstat or other clinical trial materials in a timely manner.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2021

Historical avgQ3 2021

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+4.2%

Avg return

30 days after

42%

27 / 64 earnings

Positive

+35.3%

Q4 2013

Best reaction

-32.1%

Q4 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-4.2%-15.8%-29.1%
Q4 2025-11.3%-20.5%-28.2%
Q3 2025-4.5%+0.9%+13.9%
Q1 2025-0.8%-3.0%+21.2%
Q4 2024-32.1%-27.8%-30.4%
Q3 2024-0.5%-7.0%-8.0%
Q2 2024+3.1%+0.2%-6.8%
Q1 2024-3.7%-5.1%-13.0%
Q4 2023-3.4%+0.5%+59.4%
Q3 2023+2.6%-1.0%+3.1%
Q2 2023-7.5%-7.5%-22.5%
Q1 2023+9.9%+6.0%+27.7%
Q4 2022-3.4%-10.7%-24.8%
Q3 2022-2.3%+0.9%+7.0%
Q2 2022+8.3%+2.3%+22.1%
Q1 2022+13.8%+11.5%+8.5%
Q4 2021+0.9%-3.7%+46.3%
Q3 2021-9.3%-8.7%-21.5%
Q2 2021+4.9%+4.1%+11.5%
Q1 2021+4.5%+7.5%+12.8%
Q4 2020-6.0%-3.3%-19.1%
Q3 2020-4.8%-0.5%-2.7%
Q2 2020-2.3%-7.0%+6.4%
Q1 2020-1.8%+0.0%+17.7%
Q4 2019-6.8%-7.8%+7.8%
Q3 2019+0.7%+0.0%+2.0%
Q2 2019-3.3%-0.8%+16.7%
Q1 2019-0.6%-3.3%-19.9%
Q4 2018+0.7%+7.7%+27.3%
Q3 2018+9.2%+7.8%+5.2%
Q2 2018+4.5%+4.8%+63.6%
Q1 2018-9.9%-10.9%-2.1%
Q4 2017+24.7%+43.4%+10.6%
Q3 2017-8.9%-8.4%-14.2%
Q2 2017-7.1%-8.4%-5.8%
Q1 2017+0.8%+11.7%+4.7%
Q4 2016+2.3%-0.9%+5.6%
Q3 2016+2.7%+2.2%+8.6%
Q2 2016-0.4%+0.0%+1.1%
Q1 2016-2.2%
Q4 2015-4.2%
Q3 2015+3.4%
Q2 2015-7.8%
Q1 2015+3.1%
Q4 2014-7.0%
Q3 2014+20.2%
Q2 2014-5.3%
Q1 2014-6.4%
Q4 2013+35.3%
Q3 2013+28.2%
Q2 2013+14.6%
Q1 2013-1.8%
Q4 2012-5.1%
Q3 2012-1.5%
Q2 2012+3.8%
Q1 2012-0.7%
Q4 2011-0.6%
Q3 2011+4.2%
Q2 2011-15.6%
Q1 2011+0.0%
Q4 2010+1.7%
Q3 2010-4.5%
Q2 2010+26.4%
Q1 2010+3.2%

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