NASDAQ$FTDR

Frontdoor Inc. · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Frontdoor's Q3 2023 performance was marked by revenue growth, margin expansion and increased profitability.

Frontdoor reported an 8% increase in revenue to $524 million for Q3 2023. Gross profit margin expanded by 760 bps to 51%, and net income more than doubled to $71 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 61% to $128 million. The company is raising its full-year 2023 outlook for revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and share repurchases.

  • Revenue increased by 8% to $524 million, driven by price increases.
  • Gross profit margin expanded significantly to 51% due to pricing, process improvements and favorable cost development.
  • Net income more than doubled, reaching $71 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 61% to $128 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$524M

Previous: $484M+8.3%
EPS (adj)

$0.94

Previous: $0.56+67.9%
Home Warranties

2.04

Previous: 2.2M-100.0%
Customer Retention Rate

76.2%

Previous: 75.3%+1.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$23M

Previous: -$30M+23.3%
Free Cash Flow

$48M

Previous: -$2M+2500.0%
Net Income

$71M

Previous: $28M+153.6%
Operating Income

$88M

Previous: $46M+91.3%
Gross Profit

$268M

Previous: $210M+27.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$320M

Previous: $244M+31.1%
Total Assets

$1.17B

Previous: $1.1B+6.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $5M+60.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Frontdoor · Revenue · Quarterly

$524M

Q3 2023+8.3%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Frontdoor · $430M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Renewals
    $406M+14.0%
  • Non-warranty and other
    $24M+84.6%

Forward guidance

Frontdoor is raising its full-year 2023 revenue outlook to $1.765 billion to $1.775 billion and Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $320 million to $330 million. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue of $350 million to $360 million and Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $20 million to $30 million.

Tailwinds

  • Raised revenue outlook to $1.765B to $1.775B
  • Renewals channel revenue growth of nearly 15%
  • Increased gross profit margin to 48.0% to 49.5%
  • Increased Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $320M to $330M
  • Narrowed capital expenditures to approximately $35M

Headwinds

  • Direct-to-Consumer channel revenue decline in the low double-digit range
  • Real Estate channel revenue decline in the mid-20% range
  • Number of home service plans is expected to decline in the mid-to-upper single digits.
  • Revenue of $350 million to $360 million for Q4
  • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $20 million to $30 million for Q4

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+1.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

20 / 34 earnings

Positive

+25.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-34.2%

Q4 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+13.3%+8.8%+2.3%
Q4 2025+16.9%+22.8%-4.7%
Q3 2025-15.8%-24.1%-19.3%
Q2 2025-4.0%-6.2%+8.2%
Q1 2025+25.0%+30.0%+33.8%
Q4 2024-19.2%-26.4%-33.5%
Q3 2024+10.7%+17.9%+19.9%
Q1 2024+12.6%+16.8%+15.0%
Q4 2023-5.1%-6.8%-1.4%
Q3 2023+13.4%+21.2%+19.5%
Q2 2023+5.6%+4.6%-4.8%
Q1 2023+11.7%+15.1%+19.5%
Q4 2022+4.3%+1.6%-1.3%
Q3 2022+12.9%+12.2%+12.8%
Q2 2022-0.9%-5.4%-12.5%
Q1 2022-12.9%-14.3%-21.4%
Q4 2021-6.6%-8.1%-11.9%
Q3 2021-11.8%-6.7%-16.5%
Q2 2021-13.8%-14.7%-14.2%
Q1 2021+2.0%+1.6%+1.0%
Q4 2020-1.3%-3.9%-0.2%
Q3 2020+4.0%+9.0%+9.1%
Q2 2020+7.0%+3.8%+0.1%
Q1 2020+5.5%+6.2%+12.5%
Q4 2019-2.1%+0.9%-20.1%
Q3 2019-5.3%-4.7%-3.9%
Q2 2019+16.5%+14.9%+17.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%-0.7%+4.0%
Q1 2019+11.9%+12.0%+17.6%
Q4 2016+12.7%+13.0%+8.9%
Q2 2018+12.7%+13.0%+8.9%
Q4 2018+13.6%+25.2%+22.2%
Q4 2017-34.2%-36.6%-35.4%
Q3 2018-29.0%-36.4%-36.0%

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