NASDAQ$FTDR

Frontdoor Inc. · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Frontdoor's first quarter performance was marked by a 4% revenue increase, improved gross profit margin, and strategic initiatives, including the launch of a new mobile app, driving enhanced earnings and a focus on shareholder returns.

Frontdoor reported a 4% increase in revenue to $367 million for Q1 2023. Gross profit margin improved to 46%, and net income rose to $22 million. The company launched a new mobile app and expects to repurchase approximately $80 million in stock in 2023.

  • Revenue increased by 4% to $367 million, driven by a 10% increase from price, partially offset by a 5% decline from lower volume.
  • Gross profit margin increased 540 basis points to 46% due to higher realized price, fewer service requests, and moderated inflationary cost pressures.
  • Net income increased by $20 million to $22 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by $29 million to $54 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$367M

Previous: $351M+4.6%
EPS (adj)

$0.29

Previous: $0.04+625.0%
Customer Retention Rate

75.9%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$8M

Previous: -$9M+11.1%
Free Cash Flow

$14M

Previous: -$7M+300.0%
Net Income

$22M

Previous: $2M+1000.0%
Operating Income

$35M

Previous: $11M+218.2%
Gross Profit

$170M

Previous: $144M+18.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$337M

Previous: $255M+32.2%
Total Assets

$1.13B

Previous: $1.06B+6.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $6M-16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Frontdoor · Revenue · Quarterly

$367M

Q1 2023+4.6%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Frontdoor · $289M total across 2 segments · Q1 2023

  • Renewals
    $278M+12.6%
  • Non-warranty and other
    $11M-15.4%

Forward guidance

Frontdoor provided full-year 2023 revenue guidance of $1.70 billion to $1.74 billion and Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $220 million to $240 million.

Tailwinds

  • Revenue growth in the renewals channel is expected to be approximately 10%.
  • Gross profit margin is expected to be between 43.5% and 46.0% due to a moderation of inflation.
  • Expects to repurchase approximately $80 million in stock in 2023
  • Second-quarter 2023 revenue is expected to be $505 million to $520 million, a 5% increase over the prior year period
  • Second-quarter 2023 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $80 million to $90 million, a 10% increase over the prior year period

Headwinds

  • Revenue decline in the direct-to-consumer channel is expected to be in the low double digits.
  • Revenue decline in the real estate channel is expected to be nearly 20%.
  • The number of home service plans is expected to decline in the mid to upper single digits.
  • SG&A is projected to be $570 million to $595 million due to additional investments in the American Home Shield brand.
  • Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $35 to $45 million, primarily consisting of technology investments.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+1.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

20 / 34 earnings

Positive

+25.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-34.2%

Q4 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+13.3%+8.8%+2.3%
Q4 2025+16.9%+22.8%-4.7%
Q3 2025-15.8%-24.1%-19.3%
Q2 2025-4.0%-6.2%+8.2%
Q1 2025+25.0%+30.0%+33.8%
Q4 2024-19.2%-26.4%-33.5%
Q3 2024+10.7%+17.9%+19.9%
Q1 2024+12.6%+16.8%+15.0%
Q4 2023-5.1%-6.8%-1.4%
Q3 2023+13.4%+21.2%+19.5%
Q2 2023+5.6%+4.6%-4.8%
Q1 2023+11.7%+15.1%+19.5%
Q4 2022+4.3%+1.6%-1.3%
Q3 2022+12.9%+12.2%+12.8%
Q2 2022-0.9%-5.4%-12.5%
Q1 2022-12.9%-14.3%-21.4%
Q4 2021-6.6%-8.1%-11.9%
Q3 2021-11.8%-6.7%-16.5%
Q2 2021-13.8%-14.7%-14.2%
Q1 2021+2.0%+1.6%+1.0%
Q4 2020-1.3%-3.9%-0.2%
Q3 2020+4.0%+9.0%+9.1%
Q2 2020+7.0%+3.8%+0.1%
Q1 2020+5.5%+6.2%+12.5%
Q4 2019-2.1%+0.9%-20.1%
Q3 2019-5.3%-4.7%-3.9%
Q2 2019+16.5%+14.9%+17.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%-0.7%+4.0%
Q1 2019+11.9%+12.0%+17.6%
Q4 2016+12.7%+13.0%+8.9%
Q2 2018+12.7%+13.0%+8.9%
Q4 2018+13.6%+25.2%+22.2%
Q4 2017-34.2%-36.6%-35.4%
Q3 2018-29.0%-36.4%-36.0%

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