NASDAQ$FTDR

Frontdoor Inc. · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Frontdoor's third-quarter performance in 2022 showed revenue growth, but net income and adjusted EBITDA decreased due to rising costs, however, full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance were raised.

Frontdoor reported a 3% increase in revenue to $484 million for Q3 2022. However, net income decreased by 63% to $28 million, and adjusted EBITDA decreased by 35% to $79 million. The company broadened cost reduction initiatives and reduced its workforce by 7%. Despite these challenges, Frontdoor raised its full-year 2022 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.

  • Revenue increased by 3% to $484 million, driven by price and product mix changes.
  • Net income decreased 63% to $28 million, impacted by a Streem impairment charge and restructuring costs.
  • Adjusted EBITDA decreased 35% to $79 million due to higher contract claims costs.
  • Full-year revenue guidance increased to $1.65 billion to $1.66 billion, and adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $185 million to $195 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$484M

Previous: $471M+2.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.56

Previous: $0.91-38.5%
Home Warranties

2.2M

Previous: 2.23+96860886.5%
Customer Retention Rate

75.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$30M

Previous: -$23M-30.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$2M

Previous: $53M-103.8%
Net Income

$28M

Previous: $76M-63.2%
Operating Income

$46M

Previous: $110M-58.2%
Gross Profit

$210M

Previous: $254M-17.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$244M

Previous: $309M-21.0%
Total Assets

$1.1B

Previous: $1.16B-5.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$5M

Previous: $6M-16.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Frontdoor · Revenue · Quarterly

$484M

Q3 2022+2.8%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Frontdoor · $369M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Renewals
    $356M+8.5%
  • Non-warranty and other
    $13M+18.2%

Forward guidance

Frontdoor expects revenue between $326 million and $336 million and adjusted EBITDA between $4 million and $14 million for Q4 2022. For the full year 2022, the company anticipates revenue between $1.65 billion and $1.66 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $185 million and $195 million.

Tailwinds

  • Upper single-digit revenue growth in the renewal channel.
  • Upper single-digit revenue growth in the direct-to-consumer channel.
  • SG&A range updated to $515 million to $520 million, an approximately $45 million reduction from the original 2022 outlook.
  • Gross profit margin updated to approximately 41 percent, driven primarily by the continuation of high cost inflation that is partly offset by higher pricing and process improvement efforts.
  • Revenue growth is mostly driven by higher price and product mix.

Headwinds

  • Approximately 30 percent revenue decline in the real estate channel.
  • Low-single digit revenue decline in the direct-to-consumer channel.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $4 million to $14 million, a decline from the prior year period.
  • Revenue growth customer growth is expected to decline approximately 5 percent.
  • High cost inflation that is partly offset by higher pricing and process improvement efforts.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+1.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

20 / 34 earnings

Positive

+25.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-34.2%

Q4 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+13.3%+8.8%+2.3%
Q4 2025+16.9%+22.8%-4.7%
Q3 2025-15.8%-24.1%-19.3%
Q2 2025-4.0%-6.2%+8.2%
Q1 2025+25.0%+30.0%+33.8%
Q4 2024-19.2%-26.4%-33.5%
Q3 2024+10.7%+17.9%+19.9%
Q1 2024+12.6%+16.8%+15.0%
Q4 2023-5.1%-6.8%-1.4%
Q3 2023+13.4%+21.2%+19.5%
Q2 2023+5.6%+4.6%-4.8%
Q1 2023+11.7%+15.1%+19.5%
Q4 2022+4.3%+1.6%-1.3%
Q3 2022+12.9%+12.2%+12.8%
Q2 2022-0.9%-5.4%-12.5%
Q1 2022-12.9%-14.3%-21.4%
Q4 2021-6.6%-8.1%-11.9%
Q3 2021-11.8%-6.7%-16.5%
Q2 2021-13.8%-14.7%-14.2%
Q1 2021+2.0%+1.6%+1.0%
Q4 2020-1.3%-3.9%-0.2%
Q3 2020+4.0%+9.0%+9.1%
Q2 2020+7.0%+3.8%+0.1%
Q1 2020+5.5%+6.2%+12.5%
Q4 2019-2.1%+0.9%-20.1%
Q3 2019-5.3%-4.7%-3.9%
Q2 2019+16.5%+14.9%+17.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%-0.7%+4.0%
Q1 2019+11.9%+12.0%+17.6%
Q4 2016+12.7%+13.0%+8.9%
Q2 2018+12.7%+13.0%+8.9%
Q4 2018+13.6%+25.2%+22.2%
Q4 2017-34.2%-36.6%-35.4%
Q3 2018-29.0%-36.4%-36.0%

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