NASDAQ$FTDR

Frontdoor Inc. · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Frontdoor's Q2 2023 performance was marked by a 7% increase in revenue, a significant expansion in gross profit margin, and a substantial rise in net income and Adjusted EBITDA.

Frontdoor reported a 7% increase in revenue to $523 million, driven by price increases, which were partially offset by a decline in volume. Gross profit margin improved significantly due to higher prices, favorable weather conditions, and process improvements. Net income more than doubled, and Adjusted EBITDA rose by 57%. The company also raised its full-year outlook for revenue and Adjusted EBITDA.

  • Revenue increased by 7% to $523 million, driven by a 9% increase from price, partly offset by a 2% decline in volume.
  • Gross profit margin increased by 840 basis points to 52% due to higher realized price, favorable weather trends, moderation of inflation, and process improvement initiatives.
  • Net income more than doubled to $70 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased by 57% to $121 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$523M

Previous: $487M+7.4%
EPS (adj)

$0.87

Previous: $0.53+64.2%
Home Warranties

2.1M

Previous: 2.2M-4.6%
Customer Retention Rate

76.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$15M

Previous: -$19M+21.1%
Free Cash Flow

$55M

Previous: $14M+292.9%
Net Income

$70M

Previous: $33M+112.1%
Operating Income

$87M

Previous: $40M+117.5%
Gross Profit

$270M

Previous: $211M+28.0%
Cash & Equivalents

$344M

Previous: $269M+27.9%
Total Assets

$1.14B

Previous: $1.08B+5.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $6M+33.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Frontdoor · Revenue · Quarterly

$523M

Q2 2023+7.4%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 12 of 15 quarters(80%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Frontdoor · $422M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Renewals
    $398M+14.7%
  • Non-warranty and other
    $24M+33.3%

Forward guidance

Frontdoor provided the following guidance: Revenue of $500 million to $515 million, a 5% increase over the prior year period, reflecting approximately 15% growth in the renewals channel, partially offset by an approximately mid-20% decline in the first-year real estate channel and approximately a 15% decline in the first year direct to consumer channel. Adjusted EBITDA of $80 million to $90 million, a 7% increase over the prior year period. Increased revenue outlook to $1.73 billion to $1.75 billion, or approximately 5% higher than the prior year. Increased Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $260 million to $280 million.

Tailwinds

  • Renewals channel revenue growth increased to the low double-digit range given stronger than expected year-to-date retention.
  • Other revenue of approximately $60 million, driven by growth in on-demand services, primarily HVAC upgrade services sold through Frontdoor Pro that is partly offset by lower Streem revenue
  • Increased gross profit margin to 45.5% to 47.5%. The increase from the prior outlook is primarily due to favorability in the first half of the year.
  • Capital expenditures remains at approximately $35 to $45 million, primarily consisting of technology investments.
  • The company is increasing its full year share repurchase target to approximately $100 million.

Headwinds

  • Direct-to-Consumer channel revenue decline remains in the low double-digit range as an improvement in volume has been offset by lower price compared to original expectations.
  • Real Estate channel revenue decline increased to the mid-20% range due to lower existing home inventory and a stronger seller’s market than originally expected.
  • Number of home service plans is expected to decline in the mid to upper single digits.
  • Narrowed SG&A outlook to $575 million to $590 million.
  • Annual effective tax rate remains at approximately 26%.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

+1.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.6%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

20 / 34 earnings

Positive

+25.0%

Q1 2025

Best reaction

-34.2%

Q4 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+13.3%+8.8%+2.3%
Q4 2025+16.9%+22.8%-4.7%
Q3 2025-15.8%-24.1%-19.3%
Q2 2025-4.0%-6.2%+8.2%
Q1 2025+25.0%+30.0%+33.8%
Q4 2024-19.2%-26.4%-33.5%
Q3 2024+10.7%+17.9%+19.9%
Q1 2024+12.6%+16.8%+15.0%
Q4 2023-5.1%-6.8%-1.4%
Q3 2023+13.4%+21.2%+19.5%
Q2 2023+5.6%+4.6%-4.8%
Q1 2023+11.7%+15.1%+19.5%
Q4 2022+4.3%+1.6%-1.3%
Q3 2022+12.9%+12.2%+12.8%
Q2 2022-0.9%-5.4%-12.5%
Q1 2022-12.9%-14.3%-21.4%
Q4 2021-6.6%-8.1%-11.9%
Q3 2021-11.8%-6.7%-16.5%
Q2 2021-13.8%-14.7%-14.2%
Q1 2021+2.0%+1.6%+1.0%
Q4 2020-1.3%-3.9%-0.2%
Q3 2020+4.0%+9.0%+9.1%
Q2 2020+7.0%+3.8%+0.1%
Q1 2020+5.5%+6.2%+12.5%
Q4 2019-2.1%+0.9%-20.1%
Q3 2019-5.3%-4.7%-3.9%
Q2 2019+16.5%+14.9%+17.5%
Q1 2018+0.2%-0.7%+4.0%
Q1 2019+11.9%+12.0%+17.6%
Q4 2016+12.7%+13.0%+8.9%
Q2 2018+12.7%+13.0%+8.9%
Q4 2018+13.6%+25.2%+22.2%
Q4 2017-34.2%-36.6%-35.4%
Q3 2018-29.0%-36.4%-36.0%

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