NYSE$VTLE

Vital Energy Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Vital Energy reported strong Q4 2022 financial and operating results, exceeding production guidance and reducing net debt.

Vital Energy announced its fourth-quarter 2022 financial results, reporting a net income of $118.2 million and $191.1 million in Consolidated EBITDAX. The company's oil and total production averaged 35,887 BO/d and 77,947 BOE/d, respectively, exceeding guidance. Capital expenditures were $130 million, below guidance, and the company repurchased $37.3 million of common stock.

  • Reported net income of $118.2 million and Consolidated EBITDAX of $191.1 million.
  • Oil and total production exceeded guidance at 35,887 BO/d and 77,947 BOE/d, respectively.
  • Capital expenditures were $130 million, below guidance due to moderating inflationary pressures.
  • Repurchased $37.3 million of common stock at an average price of $76.02 per share.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$364M

Previous: $470M-22.6%
EPS (adj)

$3.49

Previous: $3.39+2.9%
Avg Daily Oil Equivalent Sales

77.9K

Previous: 85.2K-8.6%
Avg Daily Oil Sales

35.9K

Previous: 41.1K-12.6%
Lease Operating Expenses per BOE

$6.53

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

$36.5M

Previous: $24.8M+47.6%
Net Income

$118M

Previous: $216M-45.3%
Operating Income

$157M

Previous: $243M-35.4%
Gross Profit

$364M

Previous: $470M-22.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$44.4M

Previous: $56.8M-21.8%
Total Assets

$2.73B

Previous: $2.55B+6.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.11M

Previous: $2.07M+2.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Vital Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$364M

Q4 2022-22.6%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vital Energy · $349M total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Oil Sales
    $282M-3.1%
  • NGL Sales
    $37.6M-35.7%
  • Natural Gas Sales
    $29.5M-43.1%

Forward guidance

Vital Energy plans to invest $625 - $675 million in 2023, maintaining relatively flat year-over-year activity levels. The Company expects full-year 2023 oil production of 34.0 - 37.0 MBO/d and total production of 72.0 - 76.0 MBOE/d.

Tailwinds

  • Capital investments are planned between $625 - $675 million in 2023.
  • Company expects to operate two drilling rigs and one completions crew for the majority of 2023.
  • Capital plan focuses primarily on high-return projects in Howard County.
  • Expects to turn-in-line approximately 55 development wells in Howard County.
  • Oil production is expected to be 34.0 - 37.0 MBO/d for full-year 2023.

Headwinds

  • Estimated cost inflation of approximately 15% over 2022 averages.
  • Production guidance does not include volumes associated with the recently announced acquisition.
  • The Company plans to update FY-23 guidance post-closing of the acquisition.
  • 2023 average oil production is relatively flat with fourth-quarter 2022 levels.
  • No increase in prior-year activity levels is planned.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

26 / 56 earnings

Positive

+12.7%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-23.2%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q3 2025+5.1%+20.9%+26.1%
Q2 2025-9.4%-8.8%-0.4%
Q1 2025+7.6%-3.5%+18.7%
Q4 2024-12.1%-20.2%-36.6%
Q3 2024+12.7%+14.7%+8.3%
Q2 2024+2.8%+2.3%-22.8%
Q1 2024-4.1%-10.1%-17.0%
Q4 2023+5.0%+3.9%+9.5%
Q3 2023+6.3%-3.4%-8.8%
Q2 2023+5.2%+5.4%+11.6%
Q1 2023-0.9%-3.3%+5.4%
Q4 2022-3.2%+6.5%-16.9%
Q3 2022+5.2%+6.1%-3.2%
Q2 2022-23.2%-26.0%-15.2%
Q1 2022-6.9%-19.1%+45.2%
Q4 2021+7.1%+7.5%+8.6%
Q3 2021-4.5%
Q2 2021-12.7%
Q1 2021-12.4%
Q4 2020+5.3%
Q3 2020+3.7%
Q2 2020-1.2%
Q1 2020-2.0%
Q4 2019-0.6%
Q3 2019-1.2%
Q2 2019+3.9%
Q1 2019+10.6%
Q4 2018+6.1%
Q3 2018+7.6%
Q2 2018-6.8%
Q1 2018-17.8%
Q4 2017+10.0%
Q3 2017-10.3%
Q2 2017-1.1%
Q1 2017-6.7%
Q4 2016+1.0%
Q3 2016+9.4%
Q2 2016+11.8%
Q1 2016+7.7%
Q4 2015-6.1%
Q3 2015-5.2%
Q2 2015+2.8%
Q1 2015-6.7%
Q4 2014-8.5%
Q3 2014+4.7%
Q2 2014-6.8%
Q1 2014-3.7%
Q4 2013-4.9%
Q3 2013-11.8%
Q2 2013+6.7%
Q1 2013-4.0%
Q4 2012+7.0%
Q3 2012-2.2%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2011+2.2%
Q1 2012+2.2%

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