NYSE$VTLE

Vital Energy Inc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Vital Energy's financial performance in Q3 2023 was marked by record production, exceeding guidance, and strategic acquisitions, leading to strong financial results.

Vital Energy reported a successful third quarter in 2023, characterized by record production levels that surpassed guidance, strategic acquisitions, and efficient capital investments, resulting in robust financial performance and strong free cash flow generation.

  • Net income was reported at $4.9 million, with adjusted net income reaching $95.8 million.
  • Consolidated EBITDAX amounted to $286.5 million, and free cash flow was $91.3 million.
  • Oil production averaged 49.0 MBO/d, and total production averaged 101.7 MBOE/d, both company records.
  • Capital expenditures were below guidance at $158.2 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$436M

Previous: $464M-6.2%
EPS (adj)

$5.16

Previous: $5.30-2.6%
Avg Daily Oil Equivalent Sales

101.7K

Previous: 79.6K+27.8%
Avg Daily Oil Sales

49.0K

Previous: 35.0K+40.0%
Capital Expenditures

-$995M

Previous: -$438M-127.4%
Free Cash Flow

-$416M

Previous: $283M-247.0%
Net Income

$4.89M

Previous: $338M-98.6%
Operating Income

$180M

Previous: $263M-31.6%
Gross Profit

$210M

Previous: $464M-54.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$590M

Previous: $49.9M+1080.8%
Total Assets

$4.43B

Previous: $2.81B+57.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.94M

Previous: $1.64M+79.3%

Revenue & EPS history

Vital Energy · Revenue · Quarterly

$436M

Q3 2023-6.2%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 10 of 15 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Vital Energy · $435M total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Oil Sales
    $375M+20.3%
  • NGL Sales
    $38.3M-35.5%
  • Natural Gas Sales
    $21.2M-71.2%

Forward guidance

Vital Energy provided fourth-quarter 2023 guidance for production and capital investments. Total production is expected to be between 101.8 - 105.8 MBOE/d, with oil production between 47.9 - 50.9 MBO/d. Capital investments are projected to be $175 - $190 million.

Tailwinds

  • Total production guidance was increased by 3.8 MBOE/d.
  • Oil production guidance was increased by 1.4 MBO/d.
  • Lower than expected investments are related to the earlier completion of acquired wells.
  • The impact of including their capital in purchase price adjustments.
  • Average oil sales price is expected to be 101% of WTI.

Headwinds

  • Average NGL sales price is expected to be 16% of WTI.
  • Average natural gas sales price is expected to be 44% of Henry Hub.
  • Net settlements paid for matured commodity derivatives for oil are expected to be $(29) million.
  • Lease operating expenses are expected to be $8.35/BOE.
  • Production and ad valorem taxes are expected to be 6.50% of oil, NGL, and natural gas sales revenues.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-0.7%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

46%

26 / 56 earnings

Positive

+12.7%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-23.2%

Q2 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q3 2025+5.1%+20.9%+26.1%
Q2 2025-9.4%-8.8%-0.4%
Q1 2025+7.6%-3.5%+18.7%
Q4 2024-12.1%-20.2%-36.6%
Q3 2024+12.7%+14.7%+8.3%
Q2 2024+2.8%+2.3%-22.8%
Q1 2024-4.1%-10.1%-17.0%
Q4 2023+5.0%+3.9%+9.5%
Q3 2023+6.3%-3.4%-8.8%
Q2 2023+5.2%+5.4%+11.6%
Q1 2023-0.9%-3.3%+5.4%
Q4 2022-3.2%+6.5%-16.9%
Q3 2022+5.2%+6.1%-3.2%
Q2 2022-23.2%-26.0%-15.2%
Q1 2022-6.9%-19.1%+45.2%
Q4 2021+7.1%+7.5%+8.6%
Q3 2021-4.5%
Q2 2021-12.7%
Q1 2021-12.4%
Q4 2020+5.3%
Q3 2020+3.7%
Q2 2020-1.2%
Q1 2020-2.0%
Q4 2019-0.6%
Q3 2019-1.2%
Q2 2019+3.9%
Q1 2019+10.6%
Q4 2018+6.1%
Q3 2018+7.6%
Q2 2018-6.8%
Q1 2018-17.8%
Q4 2017+10.0%
Q3 2017-10.3%
Q2 2017-1.1%
Q1 2017-6.7%
Q4 2016+1.0%
Q3 2016+9.4%
Q2 2016+11.8%
Q1 2016+7.7%
Q4 2015-6.1%
Q3 2015-5.2%
Q2 2015+2.8%
Q1 2015-6.7%
Q4 2014-8.5%
Q3 2014+4.7%
Q2 2014-6.8%
Q1 2014-3.7%
Q4 2013-4.9%
Q3 2013-11.8%
Q2 2013+6.7%
Q1 2013-4.0%
Q4 2012+7.0%
Q3 2012-2.2%
Q2 2012-2.4%
Q4 2011+2.2%
Q1 2012+2.2%

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