NYSE$TSN

Tyson Foods Inc · Q3 2022 earnings

Q3 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Tyson Foods reported solid results in Q3 2022, focusing on operational excellence and aggressive cost management. The turnaround of the chicken business continued, and the company maintained its market share leadership in many retail business lines.

Tyson Foods delivered solid results in the third quarter, driven by operational excellence and aggressive cost management. The chicken business turnaround continued, and the company maintained its market share leadership in key retail business lines. The company is progressing toward its goal of delivering over $1 billion in recurring productivity savings by the end of fiscal 2024.

  • GAAP EPS of $2.07, up 1% from prior year; Adjusted EPS of $1.94, down 28% from prior year
  • GAAP operating income of $1,033 million, down 3% from prior year; Adjusted operating income of $998 million, down 27% from prior year
  • Total Company GAAP operating margin of 7.7%; Adjusted operating margin of 7.4%
  • Liquidity of $3.3 billion at July 2, 2022

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$13.5B

Previous: $12.5B+8.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.94

Previous: $2.70-28.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.32B

Previous: -$859M-54.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$573M

Previous: -$110M-420.9%
Net Income

$750M

Previous: $749M+0.1%
Operating Income

$1.03B

Previous: $1.06B-2.7%
Gross Profit

$1.61B

Previous: $1.62B-0.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.06B

Previous: $1.61B-34.5%
Total Assets

$36.2B

Previous: $35.7B+1.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Tyson Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$13.5B

Q3 2022+8.2%vs Q3 2021
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Tyson Foods · $14B total across 5 segments · Q3 2022

  • Beef
    $4.96B+0.1%
  • Chicken
    $4.37B+25.6%
  • Prepared Foods
    $2.45B+5.3%
  • Pork
    $1.62B-5.6%
  • International
    $602M+23.4%

Forward guidance

For fiscal 2022, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates domestic protein production (beef, pork, chicken and turkey) should be relatively flat compared to fiscal 2021 levels. We are targeting $1 billion in productivity savings by the end of fiscal 2024 and more than $400 million in fiscal 2022, relative to a fiscal 2021 cost baseline. We expect sales to be $52 billion to $54 billion in fiscal 2022.

Tailwinds

  • USDA projects domestic beef production will increase approximately 1% in fiscal 2022 as compared to fiscal 2021.
  • We anticipate another strong year with adjusted operating margin between 11% and 13% in fiscal 2022 for Beef.
  • USDA projects chicken production will increase approximately 1% in fiscal 2022 as compared to fiscal 2021.
  • We anticipate an adjusted operating margin of 5% to 7% for fiscal 2022 for Chicken.
  • We will remain disciplined in our revenue management to ensure that additional inflationary pressures are mitigated by sales price increases, while also working diligently to deliver productivity savings to reduce costs for Prepared Foods.

Headwinds

  • USDA projects domestic pork production will decrease approximately 3% in fiscal 2022 as compared to fiscal 2021.
  • We believe our Pork segment's adjusted operating margin will be 3% to 5% in fiscal 2022.
  • We anticipate lower results from our foreign operations in fiscal 2022 due to supply chain disruptions and other impacts related to COVID-19 for International/Other.
  • We expect net interest expense to approximate $350 million for fiscal 2022.
  • We currently expect our adjusted effective tax rate to approximate 22.5% in fiscal 2022.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2022

Historical avgQ3 2022

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+15.8%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-19.6%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.2%+7.4%-11.3%
Q1 2026+0.3%-0.1%-3.7%
Q4 2025+2.3%+2.5%+9.5%
Q2 2025-7.6%-9.0%-8.5%
Q1 2025+2.2%+2.6%+7.5%
Q4 2024+7.6%+9.4%+4.1%
Q3 2024+0.5%+0.8%+7.3%
Q2 2024-5.0%-3.8%-9.1%
Q1 2024-1.7%-6.7%-5.3%
Q4 2023+1.7%+3.8%+11.4%
Q3 2023-2.5%-2.2%-8.7%
Q2 2023-19.6%-19.5%-15.4%
Q1 2023-4.1%-5.7%-8.6%
Q4 2022-4.6%-2.8%-4.5%
Q3 2022-8.6%-6.5%-15.5%
Q2 2022+1.4%-0.9%-3.9%
Q1 2022+11.8%+11.0%+2.7%
Q4 2021+2.9%+0.3%+5.8%
Q3 2021+11.9%+15.2%+7.1%
Q2 2021+0.8%+1.9%-1.8%
Q1 2021-5.4%-5.2%+9.0%
Q4 2020+2.3%-2.6%+4.6%
Q3 2020+6.0%+2.2%+3.2%
Q2 2020-5.0%+0.6%+0.1%
Q1 2020-4.5%-3.7%-23.1%
Q4 2019+7.4%+9.2%+5.8%
Q3 2019+6.6%+10.8%+7.9%
Q2 2019+2.3%+6.3%+7.4%
Q1 2019-2.6%+0.8%+3.1%
Q4 2018-4.6%-2.3%-9.0%
Q3 2018+3.7%+4.2%+8.2%
Q2 2018-0.5%+1.9%+1.8%
Q1 2018+2.0%+1.8%+3.1%
Q4 2017+2.6%+5.2%+11.5%
Q3 2017+2.7%+3.6%+2.6%
Q2 2017-8.6%-8.0%-4.5%
Q1 2017-1.1%-0.5%-5.3%
Q4 2016-12.5%-11.4%-8.0%
Q3 2016+1.1%+2.3%+2.2%
Q2 2016+3.0%
Q1 2016+15.8%
Q4 2015+12.5%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015+0.4%
Q1 2015-1.6%
Q4 2014+4.9%
Q3 2014-0.9%
Q2 2014-10.3%
Q1 2014+4.4%
Q4 2013+7.0%
Q3 2013+7.7%
Q2 2013-1.3%
Q1 2013+3.2%
Q4 2012+13.0%
Q3 2012-4.1%
Q2 2012+6.7%
Q1 2012+2.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q3 2011+2.5%
Q2 2011-5.0%
Q1 2011+2.4%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q3 2010-6.2%
Q2 2010-3.2%
Q1 2009+7.9%

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