NYSE$TSN

Tyson Foods Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Tyson Foods' Q1 2020 results were reported, showcasing top and bottom-line growth with record beef results.

Tyson Foods reported its Q1 2020 results with overall results in line with expectations. The Beef and Pork segments performed well and the Prepared Foods segment produced its sixth consecutive quarter of retail consumption growth.

  • GAAP EPS of $1.52, up 1% from prior year; Adjusted EPS of $1.66, up 5% from prior year
  • GAAP operating income of $826 million, up 2% from prior year
  • Adjusted operating income of $894 million, up 6% from prior year
  • Record Beef GAAP operating margin of 10.7% and record Adjusted operating margin of 11.2%

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$10.8B

Previous: $10.2B+6.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.66

Previous: $1.58+5.1%
Capital Expenditures

-$312M

Previous: -$318M+1.9%
Free Cash Flow

$245M

Previous: $233M+5.2%
Net Income

$557M

Previous: $551M+1.1%
Operating Income

$826M

Previous: $807M+2.4%
Gross Profit

$1.44B

Previous: $1.36B+6.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$497M

Previous: $400M+24.3%
Total Assets

$33.8B

Previous: $32.3B+4.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Tyson Foods · Revenue · Quarterly

$10.8B

Q1 2020+6.1%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Tyson Foods · $11.1B total across 5 segments · Q1 2020

  • Beef
    $3.84B-2.2%
  • Chicken
    $3.29B+5.7%
  • Prepared Foods
    $2.14B-0.4%
  • Pork
    $1.38B+17.0%
  • International
    $498M+248.3%

Forward guidance

For fiscal 2020, USDA indicates domestic protein production (beef, pork, chicken and turkey) should increase approximately 3-4% from fiscal 2019 levels, but we expect export markets to absorb the increased production.

Tailwinds

  • Beef – We expect industry fed cattle supplies to increase approximately 1% in fiscal 2020 as compared to fiscal 2019. We expect ample supplies in regions where we operate our plants.
  • Beef - For fiscal 2020, we believe our Beef segment's adjusted operating margin will be toward the upper end of 6.5% to 7.5%, absent additional impacts from ASF.
  • Pork – We expect industry hog supplies to increase approximately 4% in fiscal 2020 as compared to fiscal 2019.
  • International/Other – We expect improved results in fiscal 2020 from improvement in our foreign operations as well as the impact of a full year of our recently acquired operations.
  • Liquidity – We expect total liquidity, which was approximately $1.4 billion at December 28, 2019, to remain above our minimum liquidity target of $1.0 billion.

Headwinds

  • Chicken – USDA projects a 4% increase in chicken production in fiscal 2020 as compared to fiscal 2019.
  • Pork - We expect increased livestock costs in fiscal 2020 as compared to fiscal 2019.
  • Pork - For fiscal 2020, we believe our Pork segment's adjusted operating margin will be 6% to 8%, absent additional impacts from ASF.
  • Chicken - For fiscal 2020, we believe our Chicken segment's adjusted operating margin will be 4% to 6%, absent additional impacts from ASF.
  • Prepared Foods – We expect raw material costs to increase throughout fiscal 2020 as compared to fiscal 2019, but we expect to recover these costs through pricing over time. Given the timing lag on passing these prices through, we may not fully recover these costs within the fiscal year.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+0.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

-0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

58%

38 / 65 earnings

Positive

+15.8%

Q1 2016

Best reaction

-19.6%

Q2 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026+0.2%+7.4%-11.3%
Q1 2026+0.3%-0.1%-3.7%
Q4 2025+2.3%+2.5%+9.5%
Q2 2025-7.6%-9.0%-8.5%
Q1 2025+2.2%+2.6%+7.5%
Q4 2024+7.6%+9.4%+4.1%
Q3 2024+0.5%+0.8%+7.3%
Q2 2024-5.0%-3.8%-9.1%
Q1 2024-1.7%-6.7%-5.3%
Q4 2023+1.7%+3.8%+11.4%
Q3 2023-2.5%-2.2%-8.7%
Q2 2023-19.6%-19.5%-15.4%
Q1 2023-4.1%-5.7%-8.6%
Q4 2022-4.6%-2.8%-4.5%
Q3 2022-8.6%-6.5%-15.5%
Q2 2022+1.4%-0.9%-3.9%
Q1 2022+11.8%+11.0%+2.7%
Q4 2021+2.9%+0.3%+5.8%
Q3 2021+11.9%+15.2%+7.1%
Q2 2021+0.8%+1.9%-1.8%
Q1 2021-5.4%-5.2%+9.0%
Q4 2020+2.3%-2.6%+4.6%
Q3 2020+6.0%+2.2%+3.2%
Q2 2020-5.0%+0.6%+0.1%
Q1 2020-4.5%-3.7%-23.1%
Q4 2019+7.4%+9.2%+5.8%
Q3 2019+6.6%+10.8%+7.9%
Q2 2019+2.3%+6.3%+7.4%
Q1 2019-2.6%+0.8%+3.1%
Q4 2018-4.6%-2.3%-9.0%
Q3 2018+3.7%+4.2%+8.2%
Q2 2018-0.5%+1.9%+1.8%
Q1 2018+2.0%+1.8%+3.1%
Q4 2017+2.6%+5.2%+11.5%
Q3 2017+2.7%+3.6%+2.6%
Q2 2017-8.6%-8.0%-4.5%
Q1 2017-1.1%-0.5%-5.3%
Q4 2016-12.5%-11.4%-8.0%
Q3 2016+1.1%+2.3%+2.2%
Q2 2016+3.0%
Q1 2016+15.8%
Q4 2015+12.5%
Q3 2015-6.2%
Q2 2015+0.4%
Q1 2015-1.6%
Q4 2014+4.9%
Q3 2014-0.9%
Q2 2014-10.3%
Q1 2014+4.4%
Q4 2013+7.0%
Q3 2013+7.7%
Q2 2013-1.3%
Q1 2013+3.2%
Q4 2012+13.0%
Q3 2012-4.1%
Q2 2012+6.7%
Q1 2012+2.8%
Q4 2011-0.5%
Q3 2011+2.5%
Q2 2011-5.0%
Q1 2011+2.4%
Q4 2010+3.5%
Q3 2010-6.2%
Q2 2010-3.2%
Q1 2009+7.9%

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