NYSE$TSEOF

Trinseo Plc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Trinseo's Q4 2020 financial results were reported, showing a decrease in net sales but an increase in net income and Adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year, driven by higher volume and margin.

Trinseo reported a 3% decrease in net sales for Q4 2020 compared to the prior year, but net income increased by $61 million and Adjusted EBITDA increased by $90 million. The increase in earnings was mainly due to higher volume and margin, particularly within the Polystyrene and Base Plastics segments, as well as a favorable pre-tax net timing variance of $37 million.

  • Net sales decreased 3% versus prior year, with lower prices partially offset by higher volume across most segments.
  • Net income increased $61 million above prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased $90 million above prior year.
  • Earnings increased due to higher volume and margin in Polystyrene and Base Plastics segments, and a favorable pre-tax net timing variance.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$860M

Previous: $889M-3.2%
EPS (adj)

$1.84

Previous: $0.35+425.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$149M

Previous: $59M+152.9%
Free Cash Flow

$106M

Previous: $9M+1080.0%
Net Income

$67M

Previous: $6M+1016.7%
Operating Income

$111M

Previous: -$11.2M+1086.6%
Gross Profit

$150M

Previous: $60M+149.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$589M

Previous: $456M+29.0%
Total Assets

$2.85B

Previous: $2.76B+3.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.4M

Previous: $2.7M-11.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Trinseo · Revenue · Quarterly

$860M

Q4 2020-3.2%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Trinseo · $259M total across 2 segments · Q4 2020

  • Latex Binders
    $200M-8.7%
  • Engineered Materials
    $59.5M

Forward guidance

Trinseo anticipates significant earnings improvement in 2021 and expects the first quarter results to benefit from positive trends in volume and margins.

Tailwinds

  • Full-year 2021 net income of $167 million to $200 million.
  • Full-year 2021 Adjusted EBITDA of $400 million to $450 million, excluding any impact from net timing, the announced acquisition of Arkema’s MMA/PMMA business or the potential Synthetic Rubber divestiture.
  • First quarter results are expected to benefit from a continuation of positive trends in both volume, such as in automotive and appliances.
  • First quarter results are expected to benefit from positive margins, such as in ABS and polystyrene.
  • The company is starting the year with a very strong balance sheet on the heels of a solid quarter of earnings with the expectation of continued strong demand in the first quarter, particularly in tires, automotive and appliances.

Headwinds

  • Continued economic impact risk of COVID-19.
  • Excluding any impact from net timing.
  • Excluding the announced acquisition of Arkema’s MMA/PMMA business.
  • Excluding the potential Synthetic Rubber divestiture.
  • Reconciling items to Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income are not typically forecasted by the Company based on their nature as being primarily driven by transactions that are not part of the core operations of the business and, as a result, cannot be estimated without unreasonable cost or uncertainty.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-5.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

25 / 49 earnings

Positive

+16.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-34.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-16.7%-16.7%-91.7%
Q4 2025+0.0%+0.0%-3.6%
Q3 2025-2.4%-9.5%-47.1%
Q1 2025-34.9%-42.0%-27.7%
Q4 2024+6.9%+18.5%-11.2%
Q3 2024-8.9%-13.4%+5.9%
Q2 2024-3.2%-3.6%+44.2%
Q1 2024+16.0%-7.2%-3.4%
Q4 2023-16.8%-18.0%-10.8%
Q3 2023+2.9%-6.2%+1.0%
Q2 2023-8.4%-18.0%-35.7%
Q1 2023+2.4%-13.9%-17.0%
Q4 2022-12.7%+7.8%-5.6%
Q3 2022+8.5%+20.6%+20.0%
Q2 2022-12.9%-7.5%-26.0%
Q1 2022-5.8%-12.1%-4.4%
Q4 2021+9.0%+9.0%-9.3%
Q3 2021-4.2%-5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2021-7.1%-3.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021+0.3%+0.0%-1.3%
Q4 2020-1.0%+6.2%+25.1%
Q3 2020+15.5%+23.0%+35.4%
Q2 2020-11.6%-12.8%+3.2%
Q1 2020+3.8%+6.9%+38.4%
Q4 2019-3.5%-2.7%-34.2%
Q3 2019+2.8%+4.0%-19.0%
Q2 2019-7.3%-9.1%+10.1%
Q1 2019+7.3%+2.8%-14.9%
Q4 2018+0.6%+4.4%-5.1%
Q3 2018-6.6%-24.7%-22.3%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.7%+5.7%
Q1 2018+0.7%+1.4%+2.8%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.0%-6.8%
Q3 2017+1.5%-0.1%-0.2%
Q2 2017-7.7%-9.9%-3.5%
Q1 2017-8.2%-6.7%-2.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%-0.8%-7.8%
Q3 2016-4.3%-5.1%+12.4%
Q2 2016-0.7%+2.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.4%
Q4 2015+6.3%
Q3 2015+3.1%
Q2 2015+7.6%
Q1 2014+2.5%
Q1 2015+7.7%
Q4 2014+1.5%
Q3 2014+1.0%
Q4 2013+2.1%
Q2 2014+2.4%
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Q1 2010

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