NYSE$TSEOF

Trinseo Plc · Q2 2023 earnings

Q2 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported net loss due to goodwill impairment charge and reduced sales volume, but profitability increased due to implemented initiatives and positive cash generation.

Trinseo reported a net loss of $349 million due to a goodwill impairment charge and lower sales volume across all segments. However, the company delivered its third consecutive quarter of increasing profitability and positive cash generation due to asset footprint actions and other initiatives.

  • Net loss from continuing operations of $349 million and diluted EPS from continuing operations of negative $9.93.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $57 million, including unfavorable impacts of $16 million from net timing, $12 million from natural gas hedges and $4 million from fixed cost under absorption due to inventory reduction initiatives; Adjusted Net Loss of $68 million.
  • Cash provided by operations of $57 million and capital expenditures of $14 million resulted in Free Cash Flow of $43 million including a $52 million decrease in working capital.
  • Announced restructuring actions, including the potential closure of the Terneuzen, the Netherlands styrene plant, which, in aggregate, are expected to result in annual cost savings of approximately $70 million to $90 million in 2024.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$963M

Previous: $1.43B-32.5%
EPS (adj)

-$1.92

Previous: $1.79-207.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$57M

Previous: $164M-65.2%
Free Cash Flow

-$349M

Previous: $37.4M-1033.2%
Net Income

-$349M

Previous: $37.4M-1033.2%
Operating Income

-$337M

Previous: $91.6M-467.7%
Gross Profit

$53.6M

Previous: $139M-61.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$270M

Previous: $264M+1.9%
Total Assets

$3.36B

Previous: $4.54B-26.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.8M

Previous: $3.9M-2.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Trinseo · Revenue · Quarterly

$963M

Q2 2023-32.5%vs Q2 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 14 quarters(36%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Trinseo · $460M total across 2 segments · Q2 2023

  • Latex Binders
    $254M-28.2%
  • Engineered Materials
    $206M-31.6%

Forward guidance

The forecast assumes a similar, constrained demand environment though the remainder of the year and we anticipate second half performance to be similar to the second quarter runrate. Despite the economic environment, we continue to improve our cash and liquidity profile, including working capital reductions and capital expenditure deferments.

Tailwinds

  • Sequential profitability increase of more than $100 million in 2024
  • Better position to achieve higher growth
  • Better position to achieve higher margin
  • Better position to achieve lower volatility as demand normalizes
  • Continue to improve cash and liquidity profile, including working capital reductions and capital expenditure deferments

Headwinds

  • Similar, constrained demand environment though the remainder of the year
  • Anticipate second half performance to be similar to the second quarter runrate
  • Full-year 2023 net loss from continuing operations of $460 million
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $215 million
  • Weaker market conditions in the second half of the year leading to lower expected margins in Feedstocks, Engineered Materials and Polystyrene

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q2 2023

Historical avgQ2 2023

-1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-5.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

25 / 49 earnings

Positive

+16.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-34.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-16.7%-16.7%-91.7%
Q4 2025+0.0%+0.0%-3.6%
Q3 2025-2.4%-9.5%-47.1%
Q1 2025-34.9%-42.0%-27.7%
Q4 2024+6.9%+18.5%-11.2%
Q3 2024-8.9%-13.4%+5.9%
Q2 2024-3.2%-3.6%+44.2%
Q1 2024+16.0%-7.2%-3.4%
Q4 2023-16.8%-18.0%-10.8%
Q3 2023+2.9%-6.2%+1.0%
Q2 2023-8.4%-18.0%-35.7%
Q1 2023+2.4%-13.9%-17.0%
Q4 2022-12.7%+7.8%-5.6%
Q3 2022+8.5%+20.6%+20.0%
Q2 2022-12.9%-7.5%-26.0%
Q1 2022-5.8%-12.1%-4.4%
Q4 2021+9.0%+9.0%-9.3%
Q3 2021-4.2%-5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2021-7.1%-3.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021+0.3%+0.0%-1.3%
Q4 2020-1.0%+6.2%+25.1%
Q3 2020+15.5%+23.0%+35.4%
Q2 2020-11.6%-12.8%+3.2%
Q1 2020+3.8%+6.9%+38.4%
Q4 2019-3.5%-2.7%-34.2%
Q3 2019+2.8%+4.0%-19.0%
Q2 2019-7.3%-9.1%+10.1%
Q1 2019+7.3%+2.8%-14.9%
Q4 2018+0.6%+4.4%-5.1%
Q3 2018-6.6%-24.7%-22.3%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.7%+5.7%
Q1 2018+0.7%+1.4%+2.8%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.0%-6.8%
Q3 2017+1.5%-0.1%-0.2%
Q2 2017-7.7%-9.9%-3.5%
Q1 2017-8.2%-6.7%-2.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%-0.8%-7.8%
Q3 2016-4.3%-5.1%+12.4%
Q2 2016-0.7%+2.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.4%
Q4 2015+6.3%
Q3 2015+3.1%
Q2 2015+7.6%
Q1 2014+2.5%
Q1 2015+7.7%
Q4 2014+1.5%
Q3 2014+1.0%
Q4 2013+2.1%
Q2 2014+2.4%
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Q1 2010

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