NYSE$TSEOF

Trinseo Plc · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Trinseo's third quarter results were impacted by market demand weakness, but the company took actions to improve profitability and refinanced debt maturities.

Trinseo reported a net loss from continuing operations of $38 million and adjusted EBITDA of $41 million. The company is taking actions to improve profitability, including the closure of a styrene plant in the Netherlands. They also successfully refinanced their 2024 and most of their 2025 debt maturities.

  • Free Cash Flow was $16 million, including a $52 million decrease in working capital.
  • Third quarter ending cash of $279 million with approximately $216 million of additional available liquidity.
  • Net loss from continuing operations of $38 million included a pre-tax charge of approximately $14 million related to restructuring initiatives.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $41 million was $78 million higher than prior year.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$879M

Previous: $1.18B-25.4%
EPS (adj)

-$1.03

Previous: -$2.91+64.6%
Adjusted EBITDA

$41M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$13.6M

No prior period
Free Cash Flow

-$38.4M

Previous: -$120M+67.9%
Net Income

-$38.4M

Previous: -$120M+67.9%
Operating Income

-$16.4M

Previous: -$99.1M+83.5%
Gross Profit

$31.3M

Previous: -$39.5M+179.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$279M

Previous: $243M+14.7%
Total Assets

$3.27B

Previous: $4.13B-20.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.1M

Previous: $3.4M+20.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Trinseo · Revenue · Quarterly

$879M

Q3 2023-25.4%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 14 quarters(36%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Trinseo · $408M total across 2 segments · Q3 2023

  • Latex Binders
    $222M-34.9%
  • Engineered Materials
    $186M-23.4%

Forward guidance

Trinseo anticipates a constrained demand environment, similar to what they've seen throughout the year. Cost reduction initiatives, along with lower natural gas hedge losses, are expected to result in a $100 million year-over-year profitability improvement in 2024.

Tailwinds

  • Cost reduction initiatives are expected to improve profitability.
  • Lower natural gas hedge losses are anticipated.
  • The company is investing in transformation projects like polycarbonate dissolution.
  • Closure of the Terneuzen styrene plant is expected to improve profitability.
  • Successful refinancing of 2024 and most of 2025 debt maturities.

Headwinds

  • Forecast assumes a constrained demand environment.
  • Unfavorable net timing and styrene-related impacts in the third quarter.
  • More pronounced seasonality impact expected in the fourth quarter.
  • Lower Free Cash Flow is expected due to higher cash interest and lower profitability.
  • Full-year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA outlook lowered due to the above factors.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

-1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-5.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

25 / 49 earnings

Positive

+16.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-34.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-16.7%-16.7%-91.7%
Q4 2025+0.0%+0.0%-3.6%
Q3 2025-2.4%-9.5%-47.1%
Q1 2025-34.9%-42.0%-27.7%
Q4 2024+6.9%+18.5%-11.2%
Q3 2024-8.9%-13.4%+5.9%
Q2 2024-3.2%-3.6%+44.2%
Q1 2024+16.0%-7.2%-3.4%
Q4 2023-16.8%-18.0%-10.8%
Q3 2023+2.9%-6.2%+1.0%
Q2 2023-8.4%-18.0%-35.7%
Q1 2023+2.4%-13.9%-17.0%
Q4 2022-12.7%+7.8%-5.6%
Q3 2022+8.5%+20.6%+20.0%
Q2 2022-12.9%-7.5%-26.0%
Q1 2022-5.8%-12.1%-4.4%
Q4 2021+9.0%+9.0%-9.3%
Q3 2021-4.2%-5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2021-7.1%-3.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021+0.3%+0.0%-1.3%
Q4 2020-1.0%+6.2%+25.1%
Q3 2020+15.5%+23.0%+35.4%
Q2 2020-11.6%-12.8%+3.2%
Q1 2020+3.8%+6.9%+38.4%
Q4 2019-3.5%-2.7%-34.2%
Q3 2019+2.8%+4.0%-19.0%
Q2 2019-7.3%-9.1%+10.1%
Q1 2019+7.3%+2.8%-14.9%
Q4 2018+0.6%+4.4%-5.1%
Q3 2018-6.6%-24.7%-22.3%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.7%+5.7%
Q1 2018+0.7%+1.4%+2.8%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.0%-6.8%
Q3 2017+1.5%-0.1%-0.2%
Q2 2017-7.7%-9.9%-3.5%
Q1 2017-8.2%-6.7%-2.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%-0.8%-7.8%
Q3 2016-4.3%-5.1%+12.4%
Q2 2016-0.7%+2.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.4%
Q4 2015+6.3%
Q3 2015+3.1%
Q2 2015+7.6%
Q1 2014+2.5%
Q1 2015+7.7%
Q4 2014+1.5%
Q3 2014+1.0%
Q4 2013+2.1%
Q2 2014+2.4%
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Q1 2010

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