NYSE$TSEOF

Trinseo Plc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Fourth quarter and full year 2019 financial results were reported.

Trinseo reported a decrease in net sales for the fourth quarter, primarily due to lower prices and volumes. Net income increased compared to the prior year, while Adjusted EBITDA decreased. The company focused on cost structure improvements and working capital optimization.

  • Net sales decreased 17% versus prior year.
  • Net income of $6 million was $7 million above prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $59 million was $6 million below prior year.
  • The Company repurchased approximately 0.5 million shares in the fourth quarter for approximately $21 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$889M

Previous: $1.07B-16.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.35

Previous: $0.23+52.2%
Adjusted EBITDA

$59M

Previous: $65M-9.2%
Free Cash Flow

$9M

No prior period
Net Income

$6M

Previous: -$900K+766.7%
Operating Income

-$11.2M

Previous: $17.7M-163.3%
Gross Profit

$60M

Previous: $59.3M+1.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$456M

Previous: $452M+0.9%
Total Assets

$2.76B

Previous: $2.73B+1.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.7M

Previous: $3.5M-22.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Trinseo · Revenue · Quarterly

$889M

Q4 2019-16.5%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Trinseo · $219M total across 1 segment · Q4 2019

  • Latex Binders
    $219M

Forward guidance

Full-year outlook assumes market conditions that are similar to those in the second half of 2019. Full-year 2020 net income of $95 million to $112 million and earnings per diluted share of $2.40 to $2.84

Tailwinds

  • Business Excellence program
  • Improved cost structure from the recent restructuring
  • Focus on the growth areas of our portfolio

Headwinds

  • Market conditions similar to the second half of 2019
  • Lower year-over-year styrene margins
  • Lower demand from our customers in China due to delayed plant startups following Chinese New Year
  • Estimate of the first quarter impact in our full-year outlook

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

-3.4%

Avg return

5 days after

-5.3%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

25 / 49 earnings

Positive

+16.0%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-34.9%

Q1 2025

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-16.7%-16.7%-91.7%
Q4 2025+0.0%+0.0%-3.6%
Q3 2025-2.4%-9.5%-47.1%
Q1 2025-34.9%-42.0%-27.7%
Q4 2024+6.9%+18.5%-11.2%
Q3 2024-8.9%-13.4%+5.9%
Q2 2024-3.2%-3.6%+44.2%
Q1 2024+16.0%-7.2%-3.4%
Q4 2023-16.8%-18.0%-10.8%
Q3 2023+2.9%-6.2%+1.0%
Q2 2023-8.4%-18.0%-35.7%
Q1 2023+2.4%-13.9%-17.0%
Q4 2022-12.7%+7.8%-5.6%
Q3 2022+8.5%+20.6%+20.0%
Q2 2022-12.9%-7.5%-26.0%
Q1 2022-5.8%-12.1%-4.4%
Q4 2021+9.0%+9.0%-9.3%
Q3 2021-4.2%-5.2%-11.5%
Q2 2021-7.1%-3.3%-4.1%
Q1 2021+0.3%+0.0%-1.3%
Q4 2020-1.0%+6.2%+25.1%
Q3 2020+15.5%+23.0%+35.4%
Q2 2020-11.6%-12.8%+3.2%
Q1 2020+3.8%+6.9%+38.4%
Q4 2019-3.5%-2.7%-34.2%
Q3 2019+2.8%+4.0%-19.0%
Q2 2019-7.3%-9.1%+10.1%
Q1 2019+7.3%+2.8%-14.9%
Q4 2018+0.6%+4.4%-5.1%
Q3 2018-6.6%-24.7%-22.3%
Q2 2018+2.1%+7.7%+5.7%
Q1 2018+0.7%+1.4%+2.8%
Q4 2017-2.7%+1.0%-6.8%
Q3 2017+1.5%-0.1%-0.2%
Q2 2017-7.7%-9.9%-3.5%
Q1 2017-8.2%-6.7%-2.1%
Q4 2016-0.5%-0.8%-7.8%
Q3 2016-4.3%-5.1%+12.4%
Q2 2016-0.7%+2.1%+16.2%
Q1 2016+3.4%
Q4 2015+6.3%
Q3 2015+3.1%
Q2 2015+7.6%
Q1 2014+2.5%
Q1 2015+7.7%
Q4 2014+1.5%
Q3 2014+1.0%
Q4 2013+2.1%
Q2 2014+2.4%
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
Q1 2013
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2011
Q2 2010
Q1 2010

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