NYSE$REPX

Riley Exploration Permian Inc · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial and operating results for Q4 2023.

Riley Exploration Permian reported strong operational and financial performance for Q4 2023, with total revenues of $100 million and net income of $38 million, or $1.90 per diluted share. The company averaged 19.9 MBoe/d of total equivalent production and generated $66 million of operating cash flow. They also reduced debt by $30 million and paid dividends of $0.36 per share.

  • Averaged 19.9 MBoe/d of total equivalent production (oil production of 13.6 MBbls/d).
  • Generated $66 million of operating cash flow.
  • Generated Free Cash Flow of $33 million.
  • Reduced debt outstanding by $30 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$99.8M

Previous: $78M+27.9%
EPS (adj)

$0.70

Previous: $1.36-48.5%
Realized Oil Price

$76.85

No prior period
Oil Production

13.6K

Previous: 10.0K+35.5%
Adjusted EBITDAX

$64.4M

Previous: $45.9M+40.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$21.1M

No prior period
Net Income

$38M

Previous: $26.8M+41.8%
Operating Income

$32.6M

Previous: $40.8M-20.1%
Gross Profit

$54.9M

Previous: $54.7M+0.3%
Stock-Based Comp

$3.38M

Previous: $1.26M+168.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Riley Exploration · Revenue · Quarterly

$99.8M

Q4 2023+27.9%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Riley Permian provided first quarter detailed guidance and select full year 2024 activity guidance based on currently scheduled development activity and current market conditions.

Tailwinds

  • Full year 2024 guidance for oil production of 14.0 – 15.0 MBbls/d, corresponding to approximately 10% year-over-year growth at the midpoint
  • Full year 2024 guidance for total production of 21.0 – 22.5 MBoe/d, corresponding to approximately 17% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, benefiting from the anticipated addition of natural gas processing capacity through the year
  • Full year 2024 guidance for activity-based investing expenditures before acquisitions of $115 - 130 million, corresponding to an approximate 10% year-over-year reduction at the midpoint
  • The Company anticipates a notable increase in sales of processed natural gas and NGLs from its Yoakum County, Texas, operations during the second quarter of 2024, corresponding with a capacity expansion at our midstream counterparty’s processing plant.
  • Drilled 7 gross operated wells in Q1 2024.

Headwinds

  • The average working interest on gross operated wells drilled is subject to change and may have corresponding impacts on investing expenditures.
  • The completion and timing of the plant capacity expansion is outside of the Company’s control, and delays in the plant being fully operational could lead to lower actual results for the Company’s total equivalent production volumes due to lower natural gas and natural gas liquids processed.
  • Oil basis differentials and fees are expected to be $(2.75) - (2.25) per Bbl in Q1 2024.
  • Natural gas basis differentials and fees are expected to be $(2.75) - (2.00) per Mcf in Q1 2024.
  • Interest expense is expected to be $9.5-10.5 million in Q1 2024.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+8.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.4%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

28 / 64 earnings

Positive

+21.0%

Q1 2019

Best reaction

-18.3%

Q3 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-9.3%-5.5%-5.8%
Q4 2025+8.7%+8.1%+23.4%
Q3 2025-3.2%+3.7%+9.4%
Q1 2025+6.8%+18.4%+8.9%
Q4 2024+1.6%-2.2%-12.5%
Q3 2024+16.8%+22.9%+16.3%
Q2 2024+5.3%+11.0%+6.1%
Q1 2024+5.4%+0.9%+0.3%
Q4 2023+14.1%+13.7%+17.9%
Q3 2023-18.3%-16.8%-18.9%
Q2 2023-10.2%-6.9%-11.4%
Q1 2023-14.3%-16.6%-3.7%
Q4 2022+0.9%-0.6%+30.0%
Q3 2022+0.9%-3.9%-10.3%
Q2 2022-1.0%+4.9%+25.4%
Q1 2022+7.5%-5.3%+10.5%
Q4 2021+10.5%+3.0%+36.6%
Q3 2021-12.2%-13.2%+6.0%
Q2 2021-0.4%-7.8%+28.4%
Q4 2020+15.2%+28.4%+46.9%
Q3 2020-5.6%+9.8%+37.0%
Q2 2020+1.2%+2.4%+14.3%
Q1 2020-4.2%+12.5%+8.3%
Q4 2017+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2016+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2018+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2019+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q3 2019-10.0%-5.1%-22.0%
Q2 2019-3.2%-2.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+21.0%+6.8%+3.9%
Q3 2018+9.1%+10.0%-3.0%
Q2 2018+0.8%+4.0%+3.0%
Q1 2018-1.4%-5.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017+3.3%+3.3%+23.0%
Q2 2017+2.6%-3.2%+9.7%
Q1 2017+0.0%+169.2%+74.4%
Q3 2016+11.2%+11.1%+14.3%
Q2 2016+2.6%+2.6%-4.3%
Q1 2016-6.2%
Q4 2015-5.6%
Q3 2015+8.8%
Q2 2015-0.2%
Q1 2015-4.6%
Q4 2014-2.9%
Q3 2014-5.6%
Q2 2014-4.9%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q1 2014-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.6%
Q2 2013+1.5%
Q1 2013-4.0%
Q4 2012-4.0%
Q3 2012-7.8%
Q2 2012-3.7%
Q1 2012-2.7%
Q4 2009+4.8%
Q4 2011+4.8%
Q3 2011+7.7%
Q4 2010+8.1%
Q2 2011+8.1%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q3 2010-6.9%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q1 2010+2.1%

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