NYSE$REPX

Riley Exploration Permian Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2022.

Riley Exploration Permian reported a net income of $27 million, or $1.37 per share, for Q4 2022. The company's oil production averaged 10.0 MBbls/d, exceeding guidance, and Adjusted EBITDAX was $46 million.

  • Averaged oil production of 10.0 MBbls/d, exceeding the high end of guidance and representing an increase of 37% as compared year-over-year to the fourth quarter 2021
  • Reported net income of $27 million, or $1.37 per share, which includes $7 million of non-cash gain on derivative contracts and income from operations of $41 million
  • Generated $46 million of Adjusted EBITDAX and $40 million of operating cash flow, representing a decrease of 10% and 28%, respectively, over the prior quarter, driven primarily by lower commodity pricing
  • Paid dividends of $0.34 per share in the fourth quarter for a total of $7 million

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$78M

Previous: $48.6M+60.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.36

Previous: $0.94+44.7%
Oil Production

10.0K

Previous: 6.9K+44.1%
Adjusted EBITDAX

$45.9M

Previous: $24.5M+87.2%
Net Income

$26.8M

Previous: $15.7M+71.2%
Operating Income

$40.8M

Previous: $26.9M+51.8%
Gross Profit

$54.7M

Previous: $33.5M+63.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$13.3M

Previous: $17.1M-22.1%
Total Assets

$515M

Previous: $388M+32.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.26M

Previous: $751K+68.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Riley Exploration · Revenue · Quarterly

$78M

Q4 2022+60.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Riley Permian is providing 2023 guidance including pro forma combined guidance for the pending New Mexico Acquisition based on an expected close date early in the second quarter of 2023

Tailwinds

  • Full year 2023 guidance for oil production of 12.8 - 13.4 MBbls/d (18.4 - 19.2 MBoe/d)
  • Full year 2023 guidance for activity-based investing expenditures before acquisitions of $160 - $180 million
  • First quarter 2023 guidance for oil production of 9.8 - 10.2 MBbls/d (13.2 - 13.8 MBoe/d)
  • First quarter 2023 guidance for activity-based investing expenditures before acquisitions of $47 - $54 million

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+8.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.4%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

28 / 64 earnings

Positive

+21.0%

Q1 2019

Best reaction

-18.3%

Q3 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-9.3%-5.5%-5.8%
Q4 2025+8.7%+8.1%+23.4%
Q3 2025-3.2%+3.7%+9.4%
Q1 2025+6.8%+18.4%+8.9%
Q4 2024+1.6%-2.2%-12.5%
Q3 2024+16.8%+22.9%+16.3%
Q2 2024+5.3%+11.0%+6.1%
Q1 2024+5.4%+0.9%+0.3%
Q4 2023+14.1%+13.7%+17.9%
Q3 2023-18.3%-16.8%-18.9%
Q2 2023-10.2%-6.9%-11.4%
Q1 2023-14.3%-16.6%-3.7%
Q4 2022+0.9%-0.6%+30.0%
Q3 2022+0.9%-3.9%-10.3%
Q2 2022-1.0%+4.9%+25.4%
Q1 2022+7.5%-5.3%+10.5%
Q4 2021+10.5%+3.0%+36.6%
Q3 2021-12.2%-13.2%+6.0%
Q2 2021-0.4%-7.8%+28.4%
Q4 2020+15.2%+28.4%+46.9%
Q3 2020-5.6%+9.8%+37.0%
Q2 2020+1.2%+2.4%+14.3%
Q1 2020-4.2%+12.5%+8.3%
Q4 2017+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2016+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2018+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2019+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q3 2019-10.0%-5.1%-22.0%
Q2 2019-3.2%-2.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+21.0%+6.8%+3.9%
Q3 2018+9.1%+10.0%-3.0%
Q2 2018+0.8%+4.0%+3.0%
Q1 2018-1.4%-5.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017+3.3%+3.3%+23.0%
Q2 2017+2.6%-3.2%+9.7%
Q1 2017+0.0%+169.2%+74.4%
Q3 2016+11.2%+11.1%+14.3%
Q2 2016+2.6%+2.6%-4.3%
Q1 2016-6.2%
Q4 2015-5.6%
Q3 2015+8.8%
Q2 2015-0.2%
Q1 2015-4.6%
Q4 2014-2.9%
Q3 2014-5.6%
Q2 2014-4.9%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q1 2014-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.6%
Q2 2013+1.5%
Q1 2013-4.0%
Q4 2012-4.0%
Q3 2012-7.8%
Q2 2012-3.7%
Q1 2012-2.7%
Q4 2009+4.8%
Q4 2011+4.8%
Q3 2011+7.7%
Q4 2010+8.1%
Q2 2011+8.1%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q3 2010-6.9%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q1 2010+2.1%

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