NYSE$REPX

Riley Exploration Permian Inc · Q1 2023 earnings

Q1 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2023.

Riley Exploration Permian reported a net income of $32 million and Adjusted EBITDAX of $44 million for Q1 2023. The company's oil production averaged 9.9 MBbls/d, a 32% increase year-over-year, driven by organic growth. A transformative acquisition of oil and natural gas assets in New Mexico was closed in April.

  • Averaged oil production of 9.9 MBbls/d, a 32% increase year-over-year.
  • Reported net income of $32 million, or $1.60 per diluted share, including $11 million of non-cash gain on derivative contracts and income from operations of $36 million.
  • Generated $44 million of Adjusted EBITDAX and $33 million of operating cash flow.
  • Closed a transformative acquisition of oil and natural gas assets in New Mexico in April.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$67M

Previous: $57.3M+17.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.26

Previous: $0.71+77.5%
Realized Oil Price

$72.76

Previous: $75.67-3.8%
Oil Production

9.9K

Previous: 7.3K+36.5%
Adjusted EBITDAX

$43.5M

Previous: $27.1M+60.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$35.1M

Previous: -$29.1M-20.5%
Free Cash Flow

-$3.24M

Previous: -$7.73M+58.0%
Net Income

$31.9M

Previous: $21.4M+48.9%
Operating Income

$36M

Previous: $33.4M+8.0%
Gross Profit

$4.98M

Previous: $15.9M-68.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.28M

Previous: $8.32M-72.6%
Total Assets

$575M

Previous: $396M+45.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.26M

Previous: $1.02M+23.9%

Revenue & EPS history

Riley Exploration · Revenue · Quarterly

$67M

Q1 2023+17.1%vs Q1 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 15 quarters(60%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Riley Permian is providing 2023 guidance based on currently scheduled development activity and current market conditions. Beginning with the second quarter, the Company will realize production and financial results for the New Mexico Acquisition given the closing in early April 2023.

Tailwinds

  • Legacy assets are expected to have double-digit percentage production growth in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, as a result of extensive first quarter development activity.
  • Gross operated wells drilled in Texas activity is expected to be 2-4 for Q2 2023.
  • Gross operated wells drilled in New Mexico activity is expected to be 3-4 for Q2 2023.
  • E&P expenditures are expected to be $47 - 56 million for Q2 2023.
  • Total net production is expected to be 20.0 - 21.0 MBoe/d for Q2 2023

Headwinds

  • Modest declines in the New Mexico production during the second quarter are forecasted.
  • Oil basis differentials and fees are expected to be ($3.90) - ($2.90) $ per Bbl for Q2 2023.
  • Natural gas basis differentials and fees are expected to be ($2.70) - ($2.10) $ per Mcf for Q2 2023.
  • Cash payments for income taxes are expected to be $3.0 - 4.0 million for Q2 2023.
  • Joint Venture investment is expected to be $3 - 4 million for Q2 2023.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2023

Historical avgQ1 2023

+0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+8.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+11.4%

Avg return

30 days after

44%

28 / 64 earnings

Positive

+21.0%

Q1 2019

Best reaction

-18.3%

Q3 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-9.3%-5.5%-5.8%
Q4 2025+8.7%+8.1%+23.4%
Q3 2025-3.2%+3.7%+9.4%
Q1 2025+6.8%+18.4%+8.9%
Q4 2024+1.6%-2.2%-12.5%
Q3 2024+16.8%+22.9%+16.3%
Q2 2024+5.3%+11.0%+6.1%
Q1 2024+5.4%+0.9%+0.3%
Q4 2023+14.1%+13.7%+17.9%
Q3 2023-18.3%-16.8%-18.9%
Q2 2023-10.2%-6.9%-11.4%
Q1 2023-14.3%-16.6%-3.7%
Q4 2022+0.9%-0.6%+30.0%
Q3 2022+0.9%-3.9%-10.3%
Q2 2022-1.0%+4.9%+25.4%
Q1 2022+7.5%-5.3%+10.5%
Q4 2021+10.5%+3.0%+36.6%
Q3 2021-12.2%-13.2%+6.0%
Q2 2021-0.4%-7.8%+28.4%
Q4 2020+15.2%+28.4%+46.9%
Q3 2020-5.6%+9.8%+37.0%
Q2 2020+1.2%+2.4%+14.3%
Q1 2020-4.2%+12.5%+8.3%
Q4 2017+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2016+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2018+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q4 2019+0.0%+20.0%+17.8%
Q3 2019-10.0%-5.1%-22.0%
Q2 2019-3.2%-2.8%-12.5%
Q1 2019+21.0%+6.8%+3.9%
Q3 2018+9.1%+10.0%-3.0%
Q2 2018+0.8%+4.0%+3.0%
Q1 2018-1.4%-5.6%+11.3%
Q3 2017+3.3%+3.3%+23.0%
Q2 2017+2.6%-3.2%+9.7%
Q1 2017+0.0%+169.2%+74.4%
Q3 2016+11.2%+11.1%+14.3%
Q2 2016+2.6%+2.6%-4.3%
Q1 2016-6.2%
Q4 2015-5.6%
Q3 2015+8.8%
Q2 2015-0.2%
Q1 2015-4.6%
Q4 2014-2.9%
Q3 2014-5.6%
Q2 2014-4.9%
Q4 2013-4.5%
Q1 2014-4.5%
Q3 2013-8.6%
Q2 2013+1.5%
Q1 2013-4.0%
Q4 2012-4.0%
Q3 2012-7.8%
Q2 2012-3.7%
Q1 2012-2.7%
Q4 2009+4.8%
Q4 2011+4.8%
Q3 2011+7.7%
Q4 2010+8.1%
Q2 2011+8.1%
Q1 2011-0.8%
Q3 2010-6.9%
Q2 2010-0.2%
Q1 2010+2.1%

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