NYSE$RCL

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Royal Caribbean Group reported Q4 2022 results, exceeding guidance due to better pricing, strong onboard spend, favorable timing of operating costs, and lower interest expense.

Royal Caribbean Group reported a net loss of $(500.2) million for Q4 2022, with an adjusted net loss of $(284.9) million. Total revenues for the quarter were $2.6 billion. Load factors were in line with guidance at 95%, with Caribbean sailings reaching 100%. The company is experiencing a record-breaking WAVE season, with booking volumes significantly higher than in 2019.

  • Q4 2022 Loss per Share was $(1.96), and Adjusted Loss per Share was $(1.12), exceeding company guidance.
  • Total revenues for Q4 2022 reached $2.6 billion.
  • Load Factors for Q4 2022 were 95%, with Caribbean sailings at 100%.
  • The company is experiencing a record-breaking WAVE season, with booking positions approaching previous record highs at higher prices.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$2.6B

Previous: $982M+165.1%
EPS (adj)

-$1.12

Previous: -$4.78+76.6%
Occupancy (Load factor)

95.0%

Previous: 59.3%+60.2%
Capital Expenditures

$167M

Previous: $575M-71.0%
Free Cash Flow

$410M

Previous: -$780M+152.5%
Net Income

-$500M

Previous: -$1.36B+63.1%
Operating Income

$15.5M

Previous: -$1.03B+101.5%
Gross Profit

$822M

Previous: -$153M+636.1%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.94B

Previous: $2.7B-28.4%
Total Assets

$33.8B

Previous: $32.3B+4.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$11.8M

Previous: $8.2M+44.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Royal Caribbean · Revenue · Quarterly

$2.6B

Q4 2022+165.1%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 6 of 15 quarters(40%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Royal Caribbean · $2.6B total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Passenger ticket revenues
    $1.7B+175.7%
  • Onboard and other revenues
    $902M+147.1%

Forward guidance

The company expects Net Yields to increase 2.5% to 4.5% in both as-reported and in Constant Currency versus 2019. Adjusted Earnings per Share are expected to be in the range of $3.00 to $3.60 for the full year 2023.

Tailwinds

  • The company is experiencing a record-breaking WAVE season, driven by strong demand.
  • 2023 cumulative booked position remains well within historical ranges for all quarters and at record rates.
  • North America based itineraries are booked in line with 2019 for the full year, and ahead for the second quarter through the fourth quarter.
  • Net Yields are expected to increase 2.5% to 4.5% in both as-reported and in Constant Currency versus 2019.
  • The company expects to exceed prior record Adjusted EBITDA, achieved in 2019.

Headwinds

  • Net Cruise Costs (NCC), excluding Fuel, per APCD expected to increase 4.5% to 5.5% as-reported and 4.75% to 5.75% in Constant Currency compared to 2019.
  • Includes approximately 210 basis points from lingering transitional costs (e.g. crew movement) and additional structural costs (e.g. full-year operations of Perfect Day at CocoCay and the new Galveston terminal).
  • The company recorded a loss contingency of $130 million in the fourth quarter related to a Helms-Burton Act claim.
  • Adjusted Loss per Share is expected to be in the range of $(0.65) – $(0.85) for Q1 2023.
  • NCC, excluding Fuel, per APCD is expected to increase approximately 8.3% as-reported and approximately 8.5% in Constant Currency, compared to 2019 for Q1 2023.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+2.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+3.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+6.0%

Avg return

30 days after

69%

48 / 70 earnings

Positive

+18.8%

Q4 2025

Best reaction

-12.6%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.6%+3.9%+12.0%
Q4 2025+18.8%+11.9%+6.6%
Q3 2025-8.2%-10.4%-17.0%
Q2 2025-5.0%-10.7%+3.9%
Q1 2025+0.1%+6.3%+17.6%
Q4 2024+12.0%+12.6%+0.6%
Q3 2024+2.4%-0.7%+18.7%
Q2 2024-6.7%-4.6%-0.9%
Q1 2024+2.8%+2.1%+8.6%
Q4 2023-3.2%-5.4%-2.5%
Q3 2023+0.7%+3.1%+27.0%
Q2 2023+7.6%+6.5%-1.1%
Q1 2023+12.7%+14.7%+28.5%
Q4 2022+7.8%+3.7%-1.2%
Q3 2022+10.1%+9.4%+21.8%
Q2 2022+10.9%+5.0%+21.2%
Q1 2022-10.2%-21.7%-27.6%
Q4 2021+3.3%+11.0%-12.3%
Q3 2021+4.8%+6.6%-19.3%
Q2 2021+4.8%+3.9%+6.6%
Q1 2021-0.6%-4.0%+6.6%
Q4 2020+14.2%+18.3%+3.4%
Q3 2020+6.2%+8.4%+53.4%
Q2 2020+12.6%+16.1%+34.6%
Q1 2020+2.8%+2.3%+31.1%
Q4 2019+1.6%-4.2%-43.5%
Q3 2019-3.9%+0.0%+6.0%
Q2 2019-1.2%+0.6%-11.1%
Q1 2019+4.0%+6.8%+0.7%
Q4 2018+7.1%+6.2%+6.2%
Q3 2018-3.6%-4.8%+3.1%
Q2 2018+2.2%+2.0%+11.4%
Q1 2018-5.6%-7.5%-7.3%
Q4 2017+3.7%+5.9%+2.3%
Q3 2017+2.9%-0.9%-1.0%
Q2 2017+3.8%+5.9%+10.1%
Q1 2017+7.9%+7.6%+10.5%
Q4 2016+7.9%+6.8%+9.7%
Q3 2016+13.0%+10.3%+22.0%
Q2 2016-4.3%+3.6%+1.2%
Q1 2016+3.6%
Q4 2015-12.6%
Q3 2015+4.3%
Q2 2015+9.5%
Q1 2015-6.5%
Q4 2014-7.6%
Q3 2014+1.8%
Q2 2014+12.1%
Q1 2014-2.4%
Q4 2013+5.4%
Q3 2013+9.4%
Q2 2013+1.9%
Q1 2013+4.8%
Q4 2012-2.5%
Q3 2012+7.8%
Q2 2012+1.3%
Q1 2012-9.8%
Q4 2011+0.5%
Q3 2011-10.3%
Q2 2011-5.8%
Q1 2011-3.3%
Q4 2010+2.0%
Q4 2008+2.0%
Q3 2009-0.6%
Q3 2010-0.6%
Q2 2010+6.2%
Q2 2009+6.2%
Q4 2009+3.8%
Q1 2009+3.8%
Q1 2010+3.8%

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