NYSE$PLOW

Douglas Dynamics Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Financial performance improved across the board, driven by continued price realization and higher volumes at Work Truck Solutions.

Douglas Dynamics reported improved fourth quarter results with increased net sales, income from operations, and net income. Both segments showed improved results, with Work Truck Solutions particularly benefiting from improved pricing and upfit velocity.

  • Financial performance improved across the board in the fourth quarter, driven by continued price realization at both segments and higher volumes at Work Truck Solutions.
  • Work Truck Attachments segment saw net sales approximately the same as the prior year with pricing actions offsetting lower volumes.
  • Work Truck Solutions segment experienced increased net sales due to price increase realization, ongoing positive demand, and higher truck deliveries.
  • Order backlog at the start of 2023 was a record $360.3 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$160M

Previous: $153M+4.5%
EPS (adj)

$0.52

Previous: $0.42+23.8%
Adjusted EBITDA

$22.9M

No prior period
Adjusted EBITDA Margin

14.3%

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

$4.38M

Previous: $4.57M-4.1%
Free Cash Flow

$28M

Previous: $32.9M-14.8%
Net Income

$11.5M

Previous: $9.91M+16.0%
Operating Income

$16.7M

Previous: $14.2M+17.8%
Gross Profit

$37.9M

Previous: $36.2M+4.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$20.7M

Previous: $36.2M-42.8%
Total Assets

$872M

Previous: $583M+49.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$1.17M

Previous: -$231K+605.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Douglas Dynamics · Revenue · Quarterly

$160M

Q4 2022+4.5%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Douglas Dynamics · $160M total across 2 segments · Q4 2022

  • Work Truck Attachments
    $97.9M-10.8%
  • Work Truck Solutions
    $61.9M+79.5%

Forward guidance

Douglas Dynamics provided its 2023 financial outlook, expecting net sales between $620 million and $680 million, adjusted EBITDA ranging from $85 million to $115 million, and adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.55 to $2.45.

Tailwinds

  • Teams continue to see opportunities to grow and improve operations
  • Positive long-term outlook on both segments overall
  • Backlog and demand trends remain favorable
  • Potential for a mild to moderate recession will be more than offset by the record backlog of orders
  • Need to replace aging trucks and equipment

Headwinds

  • Assumes relatively stable economic conditions
  • Assumes slightly improving supply of chassis and components
  • Assumes company’s core markets will experience average snowfall levels.
  • Not expecting significant near-term improvements in chassis supply
  • Company is not able to provide a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP because it does not provide specific guidance for the various extraordinary, nonrecurring, or unusual charges and other certain items.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.5%

Avg return

30 days after

55%

36 / 65 earnings

Positive

+17.5%

Q2 2016

Best reaction

-16.1%

Q3 2016

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+14.0%+1.8%+0.3%
Q4 2025+7.0%+7.7%-0.4%
Q3 2025+0.3%+3.6%+8.4%
Q1 2025+4.7%+11.7%+12.8%
Q4 2024+4.3%+4.8%-8.1%
Q3 2024-10.5%-10.5%-0.1%
Q2 2024+17.1%+6.1%+5.6%
Q1 2024+1.2%+5.2%+8.3%
Q4 2023+7.0%+2.5%+1.8%
Q3 2023-3.2%-2.8%+3.6%
Q2 2023+8.1%+4.5%-1.5%
Q1 2023-7.5%-5.4%-3.6%
Q4 2022-1.0%-4.7%-21.4%
Q3 2022+10.4%+9.9%+13.8%
Q2 2022-0.7%+4.5%-8.7%
Q1 2022-1.4%-0.6%+1.6%
Q4 2021-1.7%-0.4%-6.9%
Q3 2021-3.0%+3.2%-7.2%
Q2 2021-3.6%+2.8%-1.2%
Q1 2021+0.1%-0.2%-1.9%
Q4 2020+4.2%+1.0%-6.0%
Q3 2020-0.0%+5.2%+15.0%
Q2 2020+7.4%+11.6%+16.9%
Q1 2020-7.1%-7.3%+7.1%
Q4 2019-2.6%-16.8%-40.1%
Q3 2019+1.5%+8.3%+11.5%
Q2 2019+8.5%+10.1%+4.1%
Q1 2019-5.5%-4.2%-3.8%
Q4 2018+3.2%+10.1%-3.2%
Q3 2018-11.6%-13.6%-19.6%
Q2 2018-3.9%-8.0%-0.4%
Q1 2018+5.8%+6.4%+14.2%
Q4 2017+16.7%+13.9%+13.7%
Q3 2017-3.1%-5.2%-7.4%
Q2 2017+11.5%+9.6%+14.4%
Q1 2017-5.2%-8.3%-4.1%
Q4 2016-1.8%-9.1%-7.4%
Q3 2016-16.1%-16.1%+1.1%
Q2 2016+17.5%+18.8%+19.7%
Q1 2016-4.8%
Q4 2015+4.3%
Q3 2015+7.3%
Q2 2015+13.8%
Q1 2015-4.6%
Q4 2014-4.4%
Q3 2014+1.3%
Q2 2014+7.1%
Q1 2014+0.2%
Q4 2013+3.6%
Q3 2013-0.3%
Q2 2013-3.5%
Q1 2013+1.5%
Q4 2012-1.3%
Q3 2012-1.4%
Q2 2012+2.7%
Q1 2011-5.1%
Q1 2012+0.7%
Q4 2009+2.1%
Q4 2011+2.1%
Q3 2010-2.6%
Q3 2011-2.6%
Q2 2010+5.4%
Q2 2011+5.4%
Q4 2010+5.4%
Q1 2010+0.4%

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