NYSE$NGVC

Natural Grocers By Vitamin C · Q3 2023 earnings

Q3 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong third quarter results driven by top-line momentum and comparable store sales acceleration.

Natural Grocers announced strong Q3 2023 results with a 5.8% increase in net sales to $281.8 million, a 4.4% increase in daily average comparable store sales, and an 82.4% growth in diluted earnings per share to $0.31. The company also raised its outlook for fiscal year 2023.

  • Net sales increased by 5.8% to $281.8 million.
  • Daily average comparable store sales increased by 4.4%.
  • Operating income increased by 60.8% to $9.1 million.
  • Diluted earnings per share increased by 82.4% to $0.31.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$282M

Previous: $266M+5.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.31

Previous: $0.17+82.4%
Comp store sales growth

4.4%

Previous: 2.5%+76.0%
Gross margin

28.9%

Previous: 27.6%+4.7%
Adjusted EBITDA

$16.7M

No prior period
Capital Expenditures

-$23.2M

Previous: -$15.9M-45.9%
Free Cash Flow

-$16.2M

Previous: -$12M-34.8%
Net Income

$7.07M

Previous: $3.93M+79.8%
Operating Income

$9.08M

Previous: $5.65M+60.8%
Gross Profit

$81.4M

Previous: $73.6M+10.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$8.58M

Previous: $19.9M-56.9%
Total Assets

$656M

Previous: $664M-1.2%
Stock-Based Comp

$333K

Previous: $297K+12.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Natural Grocers · Revenue · Quarterly

$282M

Q3 2023+5.8%vs Q3 2022
Beat estimate in 5 of 10 quarters(50%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Natural Grocers · $8.5M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Comparable store sales
    $6.4M
  • New store sales
    $2.1M

Forward guidance

The Company is raising its fiscal 2023 outlook for comparable store sales and diluted earnings per share based upon year-to-date performance and current trends. The Company is also refining its outlook for the number of new stores and relocations/remodels. The outlook reflects recent results, current operating trends, consumer trends, and the uncertainty of the economic environment, including inflationary factors.

Tailwinds

  • Raising fiscal 2023 outlook for comparable store sales.
  • Raising fiscal 2023 outlook for diluted earnings per share.
  • Refining outlook for the number of new stores.
  • Refining outlook for the number of relocations/remodels.
  • Reflects recent results and current operating trends.

Headwinds

  • Uncertainty of the economic environment.
  • Inflationary factors.
  • Consumer trends.
  • Potential changes in the number of new stores.
  • Potential changes in the number of relocations/remodels.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2023

Historical avgQ3 2023

+4.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

34 / 58 earnings

Positive

+44.7%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q2 2014

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026-5.2%+1.3%+7.7%
Q1 2026-0.1%-9.8%-4.1%
Q4 2025-6.6%-8.5%-17.0%
Q2 2025+31.5%+8.8%-1.3%
Q1 2025+2.5%-0.5%-23.2%
Q4 2024+31.1%+33.9%+12.7%
Q3 2024+6.0%+0.3%+12.8%
Q2 2024+9.1%+13.1%+16.6%
Q1 2024+18.4%+4.1%+17.7%
Q4 2023+20.1%+28.6%+25.0%
Q3 2023+5.8%+5.3%+1.1%
Q2 2023+11.6%+4.1%+0.8%
Q1 2023-0.9%+2.3%+10.6%
Q4 2022-11.2%-10.1%-22.1%
Q3 2022-5.9%-8.7%-18.1%
Q2 2022-17.1%-11.0%-16.7%
Q1 2022+2.5%+11.6%+30.4%
Q4 2021+10.7%+17.0%+11.4%
Q3 2021+5.1%+4.3%+6.1%
Q2 2021-19.5%-25.4%-29.9%
Q1 2021-0.9%+0.2%-3.0%
Q4 2020+17.0%+24.9%+10.8%
Q3 2020-7.2%-16.3%-33.0%
Q2 2020+44.7%+27.6%+32.8%
Q1 2020-5.1%-5.0%-21.8%
Q4 2019+7.4%+5.8%+10.6%
Q3 2019+29.7%+17.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019+3.9%+5.5%-15.5%
Q1 2019-3.4%+0.2%-8.6%
Q4 2018+35.6%+29.7%+8.3%
Q3 2018+38.4%+31.4%+54.8%
Q2 2018+18.2%+33.2%+55.5%
Q1 2018-23.1%-15.3%-15.6%
Q4 2017+28.3%+32.0%+83.6%
Q3 2017-34.6%-30.3%-32.1%
Q2 2017-7.5%-7.0%-2.1%
Q1 2017-4.4%-4.3%-3.9%
Q4 2016-5.2%-5.5%+5.7%
Q3 2016+1.5%-5.3%-9.0%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-12.9%
Q4 2015+3.5%
Q3 2015+20.0%
Q2 2015-12.2%
Q1 2015+9.8%
Q4 2014+20.1%
Q3 2014-13.4%
Q2 2014-35.0%
Q1 2014+13.3%
Q4 2011+1.4%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-1.4%
Q2 2013+17.5%
Q2 2012+17.5%
Q1 2012+8.4%
Q1 2013+8.4%
Q4 2012+6.1%
Q3 2012-5.8%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011

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