NYSE$NGVC

Natural Grocers By Vitamin C · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported strong results driven by increased net sales and comparable store sales, reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and government mandates.

Natural Grocers announced strong Q3 2020 results, with net sales increasing by 18.1% to $265.1 million and a comparable store sales increase of 15.5%. Net income rose by 134.8% to $4.7 million, with diluted earnings per share reaching $0.21. The company opened two new stores and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.07 per common share.

  • Net sales increased 18.1% to $265.1 million.
  • Daily average comparable store sales increased 15.5%.
  • Net income increased 134.8% to $4.7 million, with diluted earnings per share of $0.21.
  • Opened two new stores, resulting in a 4.6% new store growth rate.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$265M

Previous: $224M+18.1%
EPS (adj)

$0.21

Previous: $0.09+133.3%
Comp store sales growth

15.5%

Previous: 2.4%+545.8%
EBITDA

$14.6M

Previous: $11M+32.7%
Capital Expenditures

-$23.3M

Previous: -$20.8M-11.8%
Free Cash Flow

-$18.6M

Previous: -$18.8M+1.2%
Net Income

$4.69M

Previous: $2M+134.8%
Operating Income

$6.69M

Previous: $3.84M+74.3%
Gross Profit

$72.4M

Previous: $58.4M+23.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$29.9M

Previous: $11.7M+156.1%
Total Assets

$675M

Previous: $320M+110.9%
Stock-Based Comp

$199K

Previous: $257K-22.6%

Revenue & EPS history

Natural Grocers · Revenue · Quarterly

$265M

Q3 2020+18.1%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 12 quarters(67%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Natural Grocers · $8.5M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Comparable store sales
    $6.4M
  • New store sales
    $2.1M

Forward guidance

The Company has updated its fiscal 2020 outlook, reflecting year to date results and current trends in light of the rapidly evolving COVID-19 environment and government mandates.

Tailwinds

  • Number of new stores
  • Number of relocations
  • Daily average comparable store sales growth
  • Net income as a percentage of sales
  • Diluted earnings per share $0.79 to $0.83

Headwinds

  • The Company cannot predict the duration or severity of the current environment, and how that could impact financial results.
  • The fiscal 2020 outlook does not contemplate significant additional changes to the current operating environment as a result of further COVID-19 developments and government mandates.
  • incremental occupancy expense
  • which is expected to negatively impact diluted earnings per share by $0.01 to $0.02 for fiscal 2020.
  • Capital expenditures (in millions) $28 to $31

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q3 2020

Historical avgQ3 2020

+4.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

34 / 58 earnings

Positive

+44.7%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q2 2014

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026-5.2%+1.3%+7.7%
Q1 2026-0.1%-9.8%-4.1%
Q4 2025-6.6%-8.5%-17.0%
Q2 2025+31.5%+8.8%-1.3%
Q1 2025+2.5%-0.5%-23.2%
Q4 2024+31.1%+33.9%+12.7%
Q3 2024+6.0%+0.3%+12.8%
Q2 2024+9.1%+13.1%+16.6%
Q1 2024+18.4%+4.1%+17.7%
Q4 2023+20.1%+28.6%+25.0%
Q3 2023+5.8%+5.3%+1.1%
Q2 2023+11.6%+4.1%+0.8%
Q1 2023-0.9%+2.3%+10.6%
Q4 2022-11.2%-10.1%-22.1%
Q3 2022-5.9%-8.7%-18.1%
Q2 2022-17.1%-11.0%-16.7%
Q1 2022+2.5%+11.6%+30.4%
Q4 2021+10.7%+17.0%+11.4%
Q3 2021+5.1%+4.3%+6.1%
Q2 2021-19.5%-25.4%-29.9%
Q1 2021-0.9%+0.2%-3.0%
Q4 2020+17.0%+24.9%+10.8%
Q3 2020-7.2%-16.3%-33.0%
Q2 2020+44.7%+27.6%+32.8%
Q1 2020-5.1%-5.0%-21.8%
Q4 2019+7.4%+5.8%+10.6%
Q3 2019+29.7%+17.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019+3.9%+5.5%-15.5%
Q1 2019-3.4%+0.2%-8.6%
Q4 2018+35.6%+29.7%+8.3%
Q3 2018+38.4%+31.4%+54.8%
Q2 2018+18.2%+33.2%+55.5%
Q1 2018-23.1%-15.3%-15.6%
Q4 2017+28.3%+32.0%+83.6%
Q3 2017-34.6%-30.3%-32.1%
Q2 2017-7.5%-7.0%-2.1%
Q1 2017-4.4%-4.3%-3.9%
Q4 2016-5.2%-5.5%+5.7%
Q3 2016+1.5%-5.3%-9.0%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-12.9%
Q4 2015+3.5%
Q3 2015+20.0%
Q2 2015-12.2%
Q1 2015+9.8%
Q4 2014+20.1%
Q3 2014-13.4%
Q2 2014-35.0%
Q1 2014+13.3%
Q4 2011+1.4%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-1.4%
Q2 2013+17.5%
Q2 2012+17.5%
Q1 2012+8.4%
Q1 2013+8.4%
Q4 2012+6.1%
Q3 2012-5.8%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011

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