NYSE$NGVC

Natural Grocers By Vitamin C · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net sales increase driven by comparable store sales and new store sales.

Natural Grocers announced a 3.8% increase in net sales to $230.0 million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2020. The company's operating income was $2.8 million, and net income reached $1.9 million, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $0.08.

  • Net sales increased 3.8% to $230.0 million.
  • Daily average comparable store sales increased 1.9%.
  • Operating income was $2.8 million.
  • Net income was $1.9 million with diluted earnings per share of $0.08.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$230M

Previous: $222M+3.8%
EPS (adj)

$0.08

Previous: $0.10-20.0%
Comp store sales growth

1.9%

Previous: 5.5%-65.5%
EBITDA

$10.6M

Previous: $11.3M-6.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$11M

Previous: -$11.5M+4.6%
Free Cash Flow

-$9.11M

Previous: -$9.31M+2.1%
Net Income

$1.87M

Previous: $2.2M-15.0%
Operating Income

$2.85M

Previous: $4.04M-29.4%
Gross Profit

$60.5M

Previous: $59.1M+2.3%
Cash & Equivalents

$5.16M

Previous: $4.54M+13.7%
Total Assets

$669M

Previous: $310M+115.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$279K

Previous: $399K-30.1%

Revenue & EPS history

Natural Grocers · Revenue · Quarterly

$230M

Q1 2020+3.8%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 8 of 13 quarters(62%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Natural Grocers · $8.5M total across 2 segments · Q3 2022

  • Comparable store sales
    $6.4M
  • New store sales
    $2.1M

Forward guidance

For fiscal year 2020, Natural Grocers expects to open 5-6 new stores and relocate 1-2 stores. They project daily average comparable store sales growth between 0.5% and 2.5%, with net income as a percentage of sales ranging from 0.9% to 1.1%. Diluted earnings per share are anticipated to be between $0.37 and $0.45, and capital expenditures are estimated to be between $28 and $33 million.

Tailwinds

  • Number of new stores: 5-6
  • Number of relocations: 1-2
  • Daily average comparable store sales growth: 0.5% to 2.5%
  • Net income as a percentage of sales: 0.9% to 1.1%
  • Capital expenditures (in millions): $28 to $33

Headwinds

  • The adoption of the new lease accounting standard effective October 1, 2019 is expected to result in incremental occupancy expense
  • The adoption of the new lease accounting standard effective October 1, 2019 is expected to negatively impact diluted earnings per share by $0.01 to $0.02 for fiscal 2020.
  • The company's effective income tax rate for the first quarter of fiscal 2020 was 19.2% compared to 21.0% for the first quarter of 2019.
  • Gross margin decreased to 26.3% for the three months ended December 31, 2019 compared to 26.7% for the three months ended December 31, 2018.
  • Operating income decreased 29.4% to $2.8 million during the first quarter of fiscal 2020 compared to the comparable period in fiscal 2019.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2020

Historical avgQ1 2020

+4.6%

Avg return

Earnings day

+4.6%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.6%

Avg return

30 days after

59%

34 / 58 earnings

Positive

+44.7%

Q2 2020

Best reaction

-35.0%

Q2 2014

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q2 2026-5.2%+1.3%+7.7%
Q1 2026-0.1%-9.8%-4.1%
Q4 2025-6.6%-8.5%-17.0%
Q2 2025+31.5%+8.8%-1.3%
Q1 2025+2.5%-0.5%-23.2%
Q4 2024+31.1%+33.9%+12.7%
Q3 2024+6.0%+0.3%+12.8%
Q2 2024+9.1%+13.1%+16.6%
Q1 2024+18.4%+4.1%+17.7%
Q4 2023+20.1%+28.6%+25.0%
Q3 2023+5.8%+5.3%+1.1%
Q2 2023+11.6%+4.1%+0.8%
Q1 2023-0.9%+2.3%+10.6%
Q4 2022-11.2%-10.1%-22.1%
Q3 2022-5.9%-8.7%-18.1%
Q2 2022-17.1%-11.0%-16.7%
Q1 2022+2.5%+11.6%+30.4%
Q4 2021+10.7%+17.0%+11.4%
Q3 2021+5.1%+4.3%+6.1%
Q2 2021-19.5%-25.4%-29.9%
Q1 2021-0.9%+0.2%-3.0%
Q4 2020+17.0%+24.9%+10.8%
Q3 2020-7.2%-16.3%-33.0%
Q2 2020+44.7%+27.6%+32.8%
Q1 2020-5.1%-5.0%-21.8%
Q4 2019+7.4%+5.8%+10.6%
Q3 2019+29.7%+17.1%+2.9%
Q2 2019+3.9%+5.5%-15.5%
Q1 2019-3.4%+0.2%-8.6%
Q4 2018+35.6%+29.7%+8.3%
Q3 2018+38.4%+31.4%+54.8%
Q2 2018+18.2%+33.2%+55.5%
Q1 2018-23.1%-15.3%-15.6%
Q4 2017+28.3%+32.0%+83.6%
Q3 2017-34.6%-30.3%-32.1%
Q2 2017-7.5%-7.0%-2.1%
Q1 2017-4.4%-4.3%-3.9%
Q4 2016-5.2%-5.5%+5.7%
Q3 2016+1.5%-5.3%-9.0%
Q2 2016+2.6%
Q1 2016-12.9%
Q4 2015+3.5%
Q3 2015+20.0%
Q2 2015-12.2%
Q1 2015+9.8%
Q4 2014+20.1%
Q3 2014-13.4%
Q2 2014-35.0%
Q1 2014+13.3%
Q4 2011+1.4%
Q4 2013-1.8%
Q3 2013-1.4%
Q2 2013+17.5%
Q2 2012+17.5%
Q1 2012+8.4%
Q1 2013+8.4%
Q4 2012+6.1%
Q3 2012-5.8%
Q3 2011
Q2 2011
Q1 2011

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