NYSE$MO

Altria Group Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Altria's fourth-quarter earnings were impacted by a significant impairment charge related to its investment in JUUL, but its core tobacco businesses demonstrated strong performance.

Altria reported a net loss due to a $4.1 billion impairment charge on its JUUL investment, though its core tobacco businesses performed well. The company exceeded its cost savings target and increased its dividend. Altria is revising its terms of investment in JUUL and focusing on pre-market tobacco product applications.

  • Altria's core tobacco businesses delivered outstanding performance in 2019.
  • Altria exceeded its $575 million annualized cost savings target.
  • Altria increased the dividend for the 54th time in 50 years
  • Altria recorded a fourth-quarter, non-cash pre-tax impairment charge of $4.1 billion related to its investment in JUUL.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$4.8B

Previous: $4.79B+0.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.02

Previous: $0.95+7.4%
Total Cigarette Share

43.0%

Previous: 43.1%-0.2%
Capital Expenditures

$86M

Previous: $106M-18.9%
Free Cash Flow

$2.48B

Previous: $1.72B+44.1%
Net Income

-$1.81B

Previous: $1.25B-245.2%
Operating Income

$2.43B

Previous: $1.74B+39.2%
Gross Profit

$3.08B

Previous: $2.92B+5.5%
Cash & Equivalents

$2.12B

Previous: $1.33B+58.8%
Total Assets

$49.3B

Previous: $55.5B-11.2%

Revenue & EPS history

Altria · Revenue · Quarterly

$4.8B

Q4 2019+0.3%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 6 of 16 quarters(38%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Altria · $5.76B total across 2 segments · Q4 2019

  • Smokeable Products
    $5.16B-2.7%
  • Oral Tobacco Products
    $605M+5.8%

Forward guidance

Altria expects its 2020 full-year adjusted diluted EPS to be in a range of $4.39 to $4.51, representing a growth rate of 4% to 7% from an adjusted diluted EPS base of $4.22 in 2019.

Tailwinds

  • Increased investments related to PM USA’s commercialization efforts for IQOS
  • Helix’s plans to manufacture and expand U.S. distribution of on!
  • One extra shipping day in the first quarter.
  • Altria expects its 2020 full-year adjusted diluted EPS to be in a range of $4.39 to $4.51
  • Altria expects its 2020 full-year adjusted effective tax rate will be in a range of 23.5% to 24.5%

Headwinds

  • Estimated per share charges in 2020 of $0.05 of tax expense resulting from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (Tax Reform Act) related to a tax basis adjustment to Altria’s ABI investment
  • Altria expects the 2020 full-year total domestic cigarette industry adjusted volume decline rate to be in a range of 4% to 6%, which includes the impact of federal legislation raising the minimum age to purchase all tobacco products to 21.
  • Altria expects continued volatility across tobacco categories and will no longer provide a multi-year forecast for U.S. cigarette volume declines.
  • unfavorable litigation outcomes
  • government, including U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and private sector actions that impact adult tobacco consumer acceptability of, or access to, tobacco products

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2019

Historical avgQ4 2019

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.3%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.7%

Avg return

30 days after

47%

34 / 72 earnings

Positive

+6.7%

Q3 2024

Best reaction

-8.2%

Q3 2023

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.9%+6.7%+2.1%
Q4 2025-5.2%+1.6%+9.4%
Q3 2025-7.8%-7.5%-4.8%
Q2 2025+3.6%+4.3%+13.2%
Q1 2025+1.0%+2.4%+2.2%
Q4 2024-2.1%-0.1%+6.1%
Q3 2024+6.7%+7.3%+14.3%
Q2 2024-1.0%-2.4%+6.4%
Q1 2024+1.1%+2.1%+6.0%
Q4 2023+3.1%+1.2%+1.8%
Q3 2023-8.2%-6.2%-3.2%
Q2 2023-1.9%-3.1%-2.6%
Q1 2023+1.8%+1.0%-4.5%
Q4 2022+4.3%+4.3%+3.3%
Q3 2022+0.0%-0.4%-3.4%
Q2 2022-0.5%-0.5%+4.1%
Q1 2022+1.2%+0.9%-0.9%
Q4 2021+2.0%+2.4%+4.1%
Q3 2021-7.1%-7.1%-7.9%
Q2 2021+0.9%+0.4%+4.0%
Q1 2021+1.2%+1.4%+4.3%
Q4 2020-1.8%-0.6%+4.3%
Q3 2020-1.1%+3.3%+9.5%
Q2 2020-1.2%-2.3%+3.8%
Q1 2020-6.3%-9.1%-3.5%
Q4 2019-5.1%-7.2%-19.4%
Q3 2019-2.0%+0.6%+8.1%
Q2 2019-6.4%-4.7%-12.0%
Q1 2019-3.5%-0.7%-4.2%
Q4 2018+2.9%+2.6%+10.4%
Q3 2018+1.3%+5.7%-13.8%
Q2 2018+0.1%+1.4%+1.6%
Q1 2018+0.5%+0.3%-0.4%
Q4 2017-1.3%-5.4%-11.1%
Q3 2017+1.8%+0.7%+2.6%
Q2 2017-6.7%-8.7%-10.7%
Q1 2017-0.8%+0.2%+6.5%
Q4 2016+0.4%+0.2%+6.2%
Q3 2016+2.1%+1.5%-0.1%
Q2 2016-1.2%-0.4%-3.1%
Q1 2016+1.9%
Q4 2015+3.6%
Q3 2015-1.6%
Q2 2015-1.9%
Q1 2015-0.1%
Q4 2014-1.1%
Q3 2014+1.6%
Q1 2014+2.1%
Q4 2013-3.3%
Q3 2013-0.4%
Q2 2013-3.6%
Q1 2013+1.5%
Q4 2012+1.5%
Q3 2012-1.2%
Q2 2012-0.3%
Q1 2012-0.2%
Q4 2011+1.4%
Q3 2011+1.1%
Q2 2011+0.7%
Q1 2011-0.5%
Q4 2007+2.7%
Q4 2010+2.7%
Q3 2010+1.2%
Q2 2010-1.4%
Q1 2009+1.2%
Q1 2010+0.9%
Q4 2009+2.2%
Q3 2008-0.5%
Q3 2009-0.5%
Q4 2008-0.7%
Q2 2009-0.7%
Q2 2008-0.7%

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