NYSE$IPI

Intrepid Potash Inc · Q4 2022 earnings

Q4 2022 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Intrepid Potash reported strong financial performance driven by higher potash pricing.

Intrepid Potash, Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year of 2022. The company generated fourth quarter sales of approximately $67 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $23.1 million for the fourth quarter, bringing full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA to $141.8 million.

  • Total sales were $66.7 million in the fourth quarter and $337.6 million for the full-year 2022.
  • Net income was $4.0 million (or $0.30 per diluted share) in the fourth quarter and $72.2 million (or $5.37 per diluted share) in the full-year 2022.
  • Adjusted EBITDA was $23.1 million for the fourth quarter, bringing full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA to $141.8 million.
  • Cash flow from operations was $19.7 million in the fourth quarter, increasing full-year 2022 cash from operations to $88.8 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$66.7M

Previous: $71.8M-7.2%
EPS (adj)

$0.83

Previous: $0.60+38.3%
Adjusted EBITDA

$23.1M

Previous: $24.8M-6.9%
Potash Production

106.0K

Previous: 86+123155.8%
Trio Production

51.0K

Previous: 53+96126.4%
Capital Expenditures

$31.6M

Previous: $7.35M+329.8%
Free Cash Flow

$19.7M

Previous: $19.6M+0.5%
Net Income

$4M

Previous: $224M-98.2%
Operating Income

$6.13M

Previous: $15M-59.2%
Gross Profit

$25.7M

Previous: $21.8M+17.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$18.5M

Previous: $36.5M-49.2%
Total Assets

$794M

Previous: $767M+3.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$2.19M

Previous: $723K+202.5%

Revenue & EPS history

Intrepid Potash · Revenue · Quarterly

$66.7M

Q4 2022-7.2%vs Q4 2021
Beat estimate in 14 of 15 quarters(93%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

Intrepid Potash · $66.8M total across 3 segments · Q4 2022

  • Potash
    $43.8M+12.8%
  • Trio
    $17.3M-29.9%
  • Oilfield Solutions
    $5.73M-32.4%

Forward guidance

Intrepid's key focus for this year will be successful execution on our growth projects, with the goal of improving the cost side of our potash production unit economics.

Tailwinds

  • U.S. farmers have wrapped up two consecutive years of very high profitability
  • Farmers are entering 2023 with strong balance sheets
  • High prices for crop futures point to another year of robust farmer economics
  • Strong demand for our potash and Trio® which we expect to continue throughout the year as farmers will likely be incentivized to maximize their yields
  • There continues to be a structural potash supply gap owing to the Belarusian sanctions and concerns around Russian supply, which should continue to provide a relatively high floor for pricing in 2023 and beyond

Headwinds

  • The strategic focus for our growth capital is to help ensure our potash solar solution mines have more reliable, high quality brine to help reduce production variances that may result from factors outside of our control, such as weather.
  • During the fourth quarter of 2022, we had an extraction well failure at HB, and as a result, we may deploy more growth capital for a new extraction well in 2023.
  • Minor delays in permitting for railroad crossings for improved pipeline system to the HB Solar Solution Mine.
  • Customers reluctance to purchase tons for the upcoming spring application season due to the anticipation of potential price declines.
  • Increased royalty expenses due to increase sales revenues, and increased utility, property taxes, and insurance expenses from inflationary pressures.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2022

Historical avgQ4 2022

-1.8%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.7%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.1%

Avg return

30 days after

51%

34 / 67 earnings

Positive

+19.3%

Q3 2018

Best reaction

-69.9%

Q4 2015

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+2.4%+23.7%-7.4%
Q4 2025+10.6%+13.3%+21.5%
Q3 2025-2.3%-4.1%-2.4%
Q2 2025-5.3%-6.8%-8.4%
Q1 2025+17.3%+17.0%+16.4%
Q4 2024-2.0%+8.0%+17.4%
Q3 2024+13.5%+9.1%+6.7%
Q1 2024+15.3%+19.7%+17.9%
Q4 2023+7.1%-4.2%+1.6%
Q3 2023-7.3%-8.5%-2.7%
Q2 2023-7.8%-1.5%+2.1%
Q1 2023-16.6%-21.2%-24.9%
Q4 2022-7.9%-13.5%-19.8%
Q3 2022-24.4%-20.5%-19.8%
Q2 2022-2.4%-3.0%+3.9%
Q1 2022+8.4%-11.4%-19.8%
Q4 2021+4.6%+19.3%+25.4%
Q3 2021-13.2%-8.0%-18.7%
Q2 2021+12.3%+13.2%+1.7%
Q1 2021+10.8%-16.3%-8.4%
Q4 2020+5.3%+3.3%+9.7%
Q3 2020-8.0%-12.2%+37.2%
Q2 2020-5.3%+2.2%+6.9%
Q1 2020-6.4%-7.3%+18.2%
Q4 2019+1.1%-13.6%-57.6%
Q3 2019-14.0%-21.2%-33.0%
Q2 2019-7.3%-8.5%-11.0%
Q1 2019+0.3%-1.4%-7.5%
Q4 2018+2.9%+3.7%+1.6%
Q3 2018+19.3%+20.8%+2.7%
Q2 2018-13.6%-19.6%-18.9%
Q1 2018+13.5%+11.1%+14.7%
Q4 2017-12.9%-6.3%-4.2%
Q3 2017+5.5%+5.0%-2.9%
Q2 2017+15.2%+6.3%+22.8%
Q1 2017+3.4%+18.5%+27.5%
Q4 2016-6.0%-12.4%-21.2%
Q3 2016+6.2%-6.2%+23.0%
Q2 2016+11.4%+6.5%+13.0%
Q1 2016+8.8%
Q4 2015-69.9%
Q3 2015-28.1%
Q2 2015-4.0%
Q1 2015+5.9%
Q4 2014+4.1%
Q3 2014-9.9%
Q2 2014+0.3%
Q1 2014+4.2%
Q4 2013-11.4%
Q3 2013+1.6%
Q2 2013-5.9%
Q1 2013-7.0%
Q4 2012-5.7%
Q3 2012+2.8%
Q2 2012-5.7%
Q1 2012-11.6%
Q4 2011+2.9%
Q3 2011-5.0%
Q1 2010-9.5%
Q2 2011-9.5%
Q1 2011+2.6%
Q4 2008+7.6%
Q3 2009-2.5%
Q3 2010-2.5%
Q2 2010+0.4%
Q2 2009+0.4%
Q4 2009+0.4%

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