NYSE$CMA

Comerica Inc · Q4 2019 earnings

Q4 2019 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Comerica's Q4 2019 net income was $269 million, or $1.85 per share, reflecting robust deposit growth, capital management, and strong credit quality.

Comerica Incorporated reported a net income of $269 million, or $1.85 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2019. The results reflected robust deposit growth, capital management, and strong credit quality. Deposits increased $1.5 billion relative to the third quarter, with over 40% from noninterest-bearing deposits.

  • Net income for Q4 2019 was $269 million, translating to $1.85 per share.
  • The return on equity stood at 15 percent, while the return on assets was 1.5 percent.
  • Robust deposit growth was observed, with a $1.5 billion increase relative to the third quarter.
  • Over 40 percent of the deposit growth came from noninterest-bearing deposits.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$810M

Previous: $864M-6.3%
EPS (adj)

$1.85

Previous: $1.95-5.1%
Efficiency Ratio

55.5%

No prior period
Net Interest Margin

3.2%

No prior period
CET1 Capital Ratio

10.1%

No prior period
Common Equity Ratio

10.0%

No prior period
Net Income

$269M

No prior period
Operating Income

$351M

No prior period
Gross Profit

$804M

Previous: $864M-6.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$5.82B

Previous: $4.56B+27.6%
Total Assets

$73.4B

Previous: $70.8B+3.6%
Stock-Based Comp

$2M

Previous: $7M-71.4%

Revenue & EPS history

Comerica · Revenue · Quarterly

$810M

Q4 2019-6.3%vs Q4 2018
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

For full-year 2020 compared to full-year 2019 reported results, management expects the following, assuming a continuation of the current economic and rate environment:

Tailwinds

  • 2 percent to 3 percent growth in average loans, reflecting increases in most lines of business, partly offset by declines in Mortgage Banker Finance and National Dealer Services.
  • 1 percent to 2 percent increase in average deposits, with a continued focus on attracting and retaining relationship-based deposits.
  • Continued strong credit quality, with net credit-related charge-offs similar to 2019 levels (15 basis points to 25 basis points).
  • 1 percent growth in noninterest income, reflecting growth in card fees and fiduciary income, partially offset by lower derivative and warrant income, and assuming no returns on deferred compensation assets.
  • Income tax expense to be approximately 23 percent of pre-tax income.

Headwinds

  • Decrease in net interest income due to the net impact of lower interest rates, 2019 funding actions and lower nonaccrual interest recoveries, partially offset by loan growth.
  • $10 million to $15 million net reduction from interest rates in first quarter 2020 compared to fourth quarter 2019, with a modest decrease for the remainder of the year.
  • 3 percent increase in noninterest expenses, reflecting higher outside processing expenses in line with growing revenue, technology expenditures, typical inflationary pressures and higher pension expense.
  • Common equity Tier 1 capital ratio target of approximately 10 percent.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+7.7%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-12.9%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025+2.0%+3.3%
Q3 2025+1.4%+3.7%+6.0%
Q2 2025+4.6%+6.7%+8.8%
Q1 2025-4.4%+0.3%+5.6%
Q4 2024-5.6%-5.3%-1.3%
Q3 2024-1.0%-1.0%+10.1%
Q2 2024-9.3%-8.9%-0.1%
Q1 2024+3.5%+5.7%+9.4%
Q4 2023+2.6%+0.3%-8.8%
Q3 2023-7.8%-7.8%+8.9%
Q2 2023-2.1%+1.0%-10.8%
Q1 2023-7.1%-13.5%-18.6%
Q4 2022+4.8%+7.9%+10.5%
Q3 2022-12.9%-9.5%-6.2%
Q2 2022+1.9%+1.5%+9.2%
Q1 2022-8.1%-6.9%-18.9%
Q4 2021-6.0%-9.0%-3.7%
Q3 2021+3.1%
Q2 2021+2.2%
Q1 2021-0.3%
Q4 2020-1.0%
Q3 2020+2.9%
Q2 2020+5.0%
Q1 2020+2.8%
Q4 2019-3.4%
Q3 2019-3.6%
Q2 2019-3.4%
Q1 2019+0.4%
Q4 2018+7.6%
Q3 2018+1.9%
Q2 2018+3.4%
Q1 2018-2.9%
Q4 2017+1.8%
Q3 2017+1.6%
Q2 2017-2.7%
Q1 2017+1.6%
Q4 2016-4.1%
Q3 2016+7.7%
Q2 2016+3.4%
Q1 2016+6.0%
Q4 2015-5.7%
Q3 2015-1.8%
Q2 2015-4.7%
Q1 2015-1.0%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014-1.4%
Q2 2014+0.7%
Q1 2014-0.0%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+3.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+0.8%
Q4 2012+5.1%
Q4 2011+2.0%
Q3 2012-4.5%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2010+0.2%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q1 2009-1.9%
Q4 2010-1.9%
Q4 2009-1.9%
Q4 2008-1.9%
Q3 2010+0.5%
Q3 2009+0.5%
Q2 2010+1.6%
Q2 2009+1.6%

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