NYSE$CMA

Comerica Inc · Q1 2020 earnings

Q1 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net loss due to large credit reserves and, to a lesser degree, the net impact of the decline in interest rates.

Comerica reported a net loss of $65 million for Q1 2020, primarily due to a substantial increase in credit reserves and the impact of declining interest rates. Loans increased by over $3 billion in late March, supporting customer borrowing needs, and average deposits rose by $2.8 billion year-over-year.

  • Net loss of $65 million, or $0.46 per share
  • Record $53.5 billion in period-end loans, up $3.1 billion
  • Allowance for loan losses of $916 million, or 1.71% of total loans
  • Efficiency ratio of under 57 percent.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$750M

Previous: $844M-11.1%
EPS (adj)

-$0.46

Previous: $2.08-122.1%
Efficiency Ratio

56.6%

Previous: 50.8%+11.3%
Net Interest Margin

3.1%

Previous: 3.8%-19.3%
CET1 Capital Ratio

9.5%

No prior period
Net Income

-$65M

Previous: $339M-119.2%
Operating Income

$195M

Previous: $667M-70.8%
Gross Profit

$339M

Previous: $831M-59.2%
Cash & Equivalents

$4.86B

Previous: $3.48B+39.5%
Total Assets

$76.3B

Previous: $70.7B+8.0%
Stock-Based Comp

$8M

Previous: $24M-66.7%

Revenue & EPS history

Comerica · Revenue · Quarterly

$750M

Q1 2020-11.1%vs Q1 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Based on management expectations for recessionary conditions, Comerica anticipates growth in average loans and deposits, a decrease in net interest income, and stable noninterest income. Provision for credit losses is highly uncertain and will reflect the economic environment. Noninterest expenses are expected to increase, and capital will reflect the suspension of the share repurchase program.

Tailwinds

  • Growth in average loans, reflecting an increase in Mortgage Banker Finance and support of customers' liquidity needs, including through the Paycheck Protection Program, partly offset by customers' reduced working capital and capital expenditure needs.
  • Growth in average deposits as customers conserve liquidity and receive benefits of economic stimulus programs, partly offset by customers using cash to meet operating needs.
  • Capital to reflect suspension of share repurchase program and focus on supporting customers' financing needs as well as providing an attractive dividend.
  • Stable noninterest income with increase in card fees offset by reduced economic activity and lower market-based fees.
  • Current reserve is appropriate based on expected recessionary conditions as of March 31, 2020.

Headwinds

  • Decrease in net interest income due to the net impact of lower interest rates, partially offset by loan growth.
  • Estimated $55 million net reduction from lower interest rates.
  • Provision for credit losses highly uncertain, reflective of economic environment, including the effects resulting from the duration and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Increase in noninterest expenses from higher outside processing expenses and costs related to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the impact of merit increases, partially offset by continued expense discipline.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+7.7%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-12.9%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025+2.0%+3.3%
Q3 2025+1.4%+3.7%+6.0%
Q2 2025+4.6%+6.7%+8.8%
Q1 2025-4.4%+0.3%+5.6%
Q4 2024-5.6%-5.3%-1.3%
Q3 2024-1.0%-1.0%+10.1%
Q2 2024-9.3%-8.9%-0.1%
Q1 2024+3.5%+5.7%+9.4%
Q4 2023+2.6%+0.3%-8.8%
Q3 2023-7.8%-7.8%+8.9%
Q2 2023-2.1%+1.0%-10.8%
Q1 2023-7.1%-13.5%-18.6%
Q4 2022+4.8%+7.9%+10.5%
Q3 2022-12.9%-9.5%-6.2%
Q2 2022+1.9%+1.5%+9.2%
Q1 2022-8.1%-6.9%-18.9%
Q4 2021-6.0%-9.0%-3.7%
Q3 2021+3.1%
Q2 2021+2.2%
Q1 2021-0.3%
Q4 2020-1.0%
Q3 2020+2.9%
Q2 2020+5.0%
Q1 2020+2.8%
Q4 2019-3.4%
Q3 2019-3.6%
Q2 2019-3.4%
Q1 2019+0.4%
Q4 2018+7.6%
Q3 2018+1.9%
Q2 2018+3.4%
Q1 2018-2.9%
Q4 2017+1.8%
Q3 2017+1.6%
Q2 2017-2.7%
Q1 2017+1.6%
Q4 2016-4.1%
Q3 2016+7.7%
Q2 2016+3.4%
Q1 2016+6.0%
Q4 2015-5.7%
Q3 2015-1.8%
Q2 2015-4.7%
Q1 2015-1.0%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014-1.4%
Q2 2014+0.7%
Q1 2014-0.0%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+3.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+0.8%
Q4 2012+5.1%
Q4 2011+2.0%
Q3 2012-4.5%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2010+0.2%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q1 2009-1.9%
Q4 2010-1.9%
Q4 2009-1.9%
Q4 2008-1.9%
Q3 2010+0.5%
Q3 2009+0.5%
Q2 2010+1.6%
Q2 2009+1.6%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro