NYSE$CMA

Comerica Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported a net income of $215 million, with earnings per share increasing by 3% compared to the third quarter, driven by revenue growth and strong credit quality.

Comerica's Q4 2020 net income was $215 million, or $1.49 per share, a 3% increase over the third quarter. This was driven by revenue growth and strong credit quality, with deposits increasing nearly $1.5 billion. The CET1 ratio increased to 10.35 percent.

  • Earnings per share increased 3 percent compared to the third quarter.
  • Revenue increased 3 percent and credit quality remained strong.
  • Deposits increased nearly $1.5 billion.
  • CET1 ratio increased to 10.35 percent, above the 10 percent target.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$734M

Previous: $810M-9.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.49

Previous: $1.85-19.5%
Efficiency Ratio

64.3%

Previous: 55.5%+15.9%
Net Interest Margin

2.4%

Previous: 3.2%-26.3%
CET1 Capital Ratio

10.3%

Previous: 10.1%+2.1%
Net Income

$215M

Previous: $269M-20.1%
Operating Income

$278M

Previous: $351M-20.8%
Gross Profit

$734M

Previous: $804M-8.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.03B

Previous: $5.82B-82.3%
Total Assets

$88.1B

Previous: $73.4B+20.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $2M+200.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Comerica · Revenue · Quarterly

$734M

Q4 2020-9.4%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

The outlook for the first quarter of 2021, compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, is based on management expectations for gradual improvement in economic conditions.

Tailwinds

  • Average deposits to remain strong.
  • Careful management of loan and deposit pricing.
  • Income tax expense to be approximately 22 percent of pre-tax income, excluding discrete items.
  • Maintain strong capital levels.
  • Preferred stock dividends of $6 million.

Headwinds

  • Decline in average loans reflects decreases in Mortgage Banker Finance and Energy, partially offset by growth in National Dealer Services and general Middle Market. PPP loan forgiveness potentially exceeds additional advances.
  • Decline in net interest income with lower average loan balances, LIBOR and security yields as well as two fewer days in the quarter.
  • Provision for credit losses reflects pace of economic recovery; net charge-offs modestly higher.
  • Decrease in noninterest income as fourth quarter levels of deferred compensation asset returns, card fees, warrants and securities trading income not expected to repeat, as well as a seasonal reduction in syndication fees; partly offset by increases in service charges on deposit accounts, fiduciary income and brokerage fees.
  • Decrease in noninterest expenses reflects lower deferred compensation and pension expenses, seasonal reduction in occupancy, staff insurance and advertising, as well as a two less days in the quarter; partially offset by higher annual stock-based compensation.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+7.7%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-12.9%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025+2.0%+3.3%
Q3 2025+1.4%+3.7%+6.0%
Q2 2025+4.6%+6.7%+8.8%
Q1 2025-4.4%+0.3%+5.6%
Q4 2024-5.6%-5.3%-1.3%
Q3 2024-1.0%-1.0%+10.1%
Q2 2024-9.3%-8.9%-0.1%
Q1 2024+3.5%+5.7%+9.4%
Q4 2023+2.6%+0.3%-8.8%
Q3 2023-7.8%-7.8%+8.9%
Q2 2023-2.1%+1.0%-10.8%
Q1 2023-7.1%-13.5%-18.6%
Q4 2022+4.8%+7.9%+10.5%
Q3 2022-12.9%-9.5%-6.2%
Q2 2022+1.9%+1.5%+9.2%
Q1 2022-8.1%-6.9%-18.9%
Q4 2021-6.0%-9.0%-3.7%
Q3 2021+3.1%
Q2 2021+2.2%
Q1 2021-0.3%
Q4 2020-1.0%
Q3 2020+2.9%
Q2 2020+5.0%
Q1 2020+2.8%
Q4 2019-3.4%
Q3 2019-3.6%
Q2 2019-3.4%
Q1 2019+0.4%
Q4 2018+7.6%
Q3 2018+1.9%
Q2 2018+3.4%
Q1 2018-2.9%
Q4 2017+1.8%
Q3 2017+1.6%
Q2 2017-2.7%
Q1 2017+1.6%
Q4 2016-4.1%
Q3 2016+7.7%
Q2 2016+3.4%
Q1 2016+6.0%
Q4 2015-5.7%
Q3 2015-1.8%
Q2 2015-4.7%
Q1 2015-1.0%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014-1.4%
Q2 2014+0.7%
Q1 2014-0.0%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+3.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+0.8%
Q4 2012+5.1%
Q4 2011+2.0%
Q3 2012-4.5%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2010+0.2%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q1 2009-1.9%
Q4 2010-1.9%
Q4 2009-1.9%
Q4 2008-1.9%
Q3 2010+0.5%
Q3 2009+0.5%
Q2 2010+1.6%
Q2 2009+1.6%

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