NYSE$CMA

Comerica Inc · Q3 2020 earnings

Q3 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Net income of $211 million, or $1.44 per share, was achieved, driven by strong credit quality and deposit growth.

Comerica reported a net income of $211 million, or $1.44 per share, for the third quarter of 2020. The results reflect the resiliency of the company's relationship-focused business model, with customers conserving cash and adjusting operations. Deposit growth continued, and credit quality remained strong.

  • Earnings per share increased 80 percent compared to the second quarter.
  • Net income increased $98 million, or 87%.
  • Average noninterest-bearing deposits increased $3.2 billion.
  • Net charge-offs were 26 basis points, and nonperforming assets remained below historic levels.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$710M

Previous: $842M-15.7%
EPS (adj)

$1.44

Previous: $1.92-25.0%
Efficiency Ratio

62.8%

No prior period
Net Interest Margin

2.3%

Previous: 3.5%-33.8%
CET1 Capital Ratio

10.3%

Previous: 10.0%+3.0%
Net Income

$211M

Previous: $292M-27.7%
Operating Income

$582M

Previous: $561M+3.7%
Gross Profit

$705M

Previous: $807M-12.6%
Cash & Equivalents

$11.1B

Previous: $4.12B+170.6%
Total Assets

$83.6B

Previous: $72.8B+14.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$6M

Previous: $5M+20.0%

Revenue & EPS history

Comerica · Revenue · Quarterly

$710M

Q3 2020-15.7%vs Q3 2019
Beat estimate in 14 of 16 quarters(88%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

Comerica expects gradual improvement in economic conditions. The outlook excludes any impact from loan forgiveness on loans, net interest income and expenses.

Tailwinds

  • Average deposits to remain strong and relatively stable (excluding the benefit of possible additional fiscal stimulus).
  • Net interest income relatively stable with lower loan balances as well as the impact of lower LIBOR and securities yields, mostly offset by careful management of loan and deposit pricing, the full quarter benefit of the larger securities portfolio and lower wholesale funding.
  • Maintain strong capital levels with a focus on supporting growth as well as providing an attractive return to our shareholders.
  • Growth in National Dealer Services as inventory levels begin to slowly rebuild.
  • Several fee categories due to improving economic conditions.

Headwinds

  • Decline in average loans reflects decreases in Mortgage Banker Finance due to a reduction in activity and the cyclical impacts on Middle Market, Large Corporate and Energy.
  • Provision for credit losses reflects pace of economic recovery; net charge-offs modestly higher.
  • Decrease in noninterest income as third quarter levels of deferred compensation, securities trading income and bank-owned life insurance not to repeat.
  • Reduced card fees as economic stimulus benefits recede.
  • Increase in noninterest expenses reflects technology projects and seasonal impact of staff insurance, mostly offset by third quarter levels of deferred compensation and charitable contributions not expected to repeat.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 15 quarterly earnings reports

Historical avg

-0.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

-1.9%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.0%

Avg return

30 days after

52%

36 / 69 earnings

Positive

+7.7%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-12.9%

Q3 2022

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025+2.0%+3.3%
Q3 2025+1.4%+3.7%+6.0%
Q2 2025+4.6%+6.7%+8.8%
Q1 2025-4.4%+0.3%+5.6%
Q4 2024-5.6%-5.3%-1.3%
Q3 2024-1.0%-1.0%+10.1%
Q2 2024-9.3%-8.9%-0.1%
Q1 2024+3.5%+5.7%+9.4%
Q4 2023+2.6%+0.3%-8.8%
Q3 2023-7.8%-7.8%+8.9%
Q2 2023-2.1%+1.0%-10.8%
Q1 2023-7.1%-13.5%-18.6%
Q4 2022+4.8%+7.9%+10.5%
Q3 2022-12.9%-9.5%-6.2%
Q2 2022+1.9%+1.5%+9.2%
Q1 2022-8.1%-6.9%-18.9%
Q4 2021-6.0%-9.0%-3.7%
Q3 2021+3.1%
Q2 2021+2.2%
Q1 2021-0.3%
Q4 2020-1.0%
Q3 2020+2.9%
Q2 2020+5.0%
Q1 2020+2.8%
Q4 2019-3.4%
Q3 2019-3.6%
Q2 2019-3.4%
Q1 2019+0.4%
Q4 2018+7.6%
Q3 2018+1.9%
Q2 2018+3.4%
Q1 2018-2.9%
Q4 2017+1.8%
Q3 2017+1.6%
Q2 2017-2.7%
Q1 2017+1.6%
Q4 2016-4.1%
Q3 2016+7.7%
Q2 2016+3.4%
Q1 2016+6.0%
Q4 2015-5.7%
Q3 2015-1.8%
Q2 2015-4.7%
Q1 2015-1.0%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014-1.4%
Q2 2014+0.7%
Q1 2014-0.0%
Q4 2013+4.4%
Q3 2013+3.0%
Q2 2013-1.2%
Q1 2013+0.8%
Q4 2012+5.1%
Q4 2011+2.0%
Q3 2012-4.5%
Q2 2012+2.6%
Q1 2012+1.4%
Q3 2011-0.1%
Q2 2011-2.4%
Q1 2010+0.2%
Q1 2011+0.5%
Q1 2009-1.9%
Q4 2010-1.9%
Q4 2009-1.9%
Q4 2008-1.9%
Q3 2010+0.5%
Q3 2009+0.5%
Q2 2010+1.6%
Q2 2009+1.6%

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