NYSE$BLD

TopBuild Corp. · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

TopBuild's Q4 2023 earnings were reported, showcasing increased sales and expanded margins.

TopBuild reported a 1.7% increase in sales to $1.3 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 80 basis points to 19.6% for the fourth quarter of 2023.

  • Sales increased by 1.7% to $1.3 billion.
  • Gross margin expanded by 70 basis points to 30.4%.
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 80 basis points to 19.6%.
  • Commercial and industrial end markets grew 4.9%.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$1.29B

Previous: $1.27B+1.7%
EPS (adj)

$4.69

Previous: $4.40+6.6%
Operating margin

15.9%

Previous: 16.1%-1.2%
Adjusted EBITDA margin

19.6%

Previous: 18.8%+4.3%
Capital Expenditures

-$15.9M

Previous: $20.3M-178.3%
Net Income

$146M

Previous: $144M+1.8%
Operating Income

$205M

Previous: $203M+0.8%
Gross Profit

$391M

Previous: $376M+4.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$4.76M

Previous: $2.64M+80.4%

Revenue & EPS history

TopBuild · Revenue · Quarterly

$1.29B

Q4 2023+1.7%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 8 of 15 quarters(53%)
ActualEstimate

Forward guidance

TopBuild expects another strong year in 2024 with opportunities to demonstrate the advantages of their operating model and take advantage of multiple avenues for growth.

Tailwinds

  • Sales are expected to be between $5.36 billion and $5.56 billion.
  • Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $1.04 billion and $1.13 billion.
  • Mid single digit growth is expected in residential revenue.
  • Mid single digit growth is expected in commercial/industrial revenue.
  • Incremental Adjusted EBITDA (Organic) is expected to be 22% to 27%

Headwinds

  • Capital Expenditures are projected to be 1.5% to 2.0% of sales.
  • Working Capital Goal is projected to be 12% to 14% of LTM Sales.
  • Income Tax Rate is expected to be 25% to 27%.
  • Incremental Adjusted EBITDA (Acquisitions Year One) is expected to be 11% to 16%.
  • Outlook does not include effects related to potential acquisitions or divestitures.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+1.4%

Avg return

Earnings day

+1.1%

Avg return

5 days after

+2.2%

Avg return

30 days after

63%

31 / 49 earnings

Positive

+14.2%

Q3 2019

Best reaction

-14.1%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026-0.6%-0.8%-5.8%
Q4 2025-3.7%-10.8%-28.2%
Q3 2025-1.1%+0.0%+4.8%
Q1 2025-3.1%+1.1%+3.1%
Q4 2024+2.7%+1.4%+3.0%
Q3 2024+2.5%+1.9%+3.3%
Q2 2024-14.1%-12.4%-14.4%
Q1 2024-5.0%-0.8%-1.8%
Q4 2023-2.6%-2.1%+6.7%
Q3 2023+11.1%+20.5%+34.8%
Q2 2023+7.5%+9.2%+8.3%
Q1 2023-3.1%-5.3%-1.8%
Q4 2022+4.1%+4.8%-2.5%
Q3 2022-13.1%-13.9%-7.1%
Q2 2022-6.0%-9.4%-16.5%
Q1 2022+1.0%-0.5%+4.2%
Q4 2021-12.7%-6.1%-12.4%
Q3 2021-1.4%+0.4%+5.0%
Q2 2021+6.0%+8.5%+9.1%
Q1 2021-2.7%-8.5%-15.0%
Q4 2020+1.2%-5.3%+0.9%
Q3 2020+6.9%+6.4%+7.4%
Q2 2020+3.6%+4.4%+12.6%
Q1 2020+8.6%+11.2%+36.6%
Q4 2019-10.0%-16.4%-31.1%
Q3 2019+14.2%+10.5%+14.3%
Q2 2019+10.3%+8.9%+14.2%
Q1 2019+7.8%+13.2%+8.5%
Q4 2018+1.7%+2.3%+11.0%
Q3 2018+7.8%+3.8%-2.6%
Q2 2018-0.4%+0.8%-18.1%
Q1 2018+4.2%+6.2%+8.5%
Q4 2017-5.0%-1.2%+4.3%
Q3 2017-2.2%-0.4%+1.0%
Q2 2017+4.6%+3.7%+5.5%
Q1 2017+2.2%+1.5%+3.5%
Q4 2016+8.2%+7.7%+14.6%
Q3 2016+9.9%+15.4%+25.5%
Q2 2016-7.8%-7.8%-8.5%
Q1 2016+2.6%
Q1 2015+2.6%
Q1 2014+0.7%
Q4 2013+0.7%
Q4 2015+0.7%
Q3 2015+11.5%
Q3 2014+11.5%
Q4 2014+2.2%
Q2 2014+2.2%
Q2 2015+2.2%

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