NYSE$AL

Air Lease Corporation · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ALC reported strong Q4 and full-year performance, achieving record revenues and profits for the 4th quarter, with net income increasing 56% and revenues increasing 19% over the prior year’s quarter.

Air Lease Corporation announced strong Q4 2023 results, with a 19% increase in revenues and a 56% increase in net income compared to the prior year's quarter. The company took delivery of 22 aircraft, sold eight aircraft, and ended the year with $31.0 billion in committed minimum future rental payments.

  • ALC took delivery of 22 aircraft from their order book, representing approximately $1.2 billion in aircraft investments.
  • The company recognized a net benefit of approximately $67 million from the settlement of insurance claims related to aircraft previously leased to S7, a Russian airline.
  • ALC sold eight aircraft during the fourth quarter for approximately $440 million in sales proceeds.
  • The company has placed 100% of their committed orderbook on long-term leases for aircraft delivering through the end of 2025 and have placed approximately 65% of their entire orderbook delivering through 2028.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$641M

Previous: $602M+6.6%
EPS (adj)

$1.92

Previous: $1.42+35.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$1.29B

Previous: $53.7M-2502.0%
Free Cash Flow

-$826M

Previous: $370M-323.4%
Net Income

$211M

Previous: $145M+45.2%
Operating Income

$199M

Previous: $152M+30.9%
Gross Profit

$274M

Previous: $214M+27.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$11.3M

Previous: $5.8M+94.4%

Revenue & EPS history

ALC · Revenue · Quarterly

$641M

Q4 2023+6.6%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 9 of 16 quarters(56%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ALC · $561M total across 1 segment · Q4 2022

  • Rental of flight equipment
    $561M

Forward guidance

The commercial aircraft supply/demand backdrop remains highly favorable for ALC's current fleet and their $22 billion forward orderbook scheduled to deliver over the next 4-5 years.

Tailwinds

  • Strong demand for current fleet
  • Favorable supply/demand dynamics
  • $22 billion forward orderbook
  • Orderbook delivers over the next 4-5 years
  • High lease placement rate

Headwinds

  • Potential for aircraft delivery delays
  • Changes in global economic conditions
  • Increased competition from other lessors
  • Impaired financial condition of lessees
  • Obsolescence of aircraft

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

+1.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

39 / 63 earnings

Positive

+15.5%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-17.2%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025+0.1%+0.2%-0.1%
Q3 2025-0.3%-0.1%+0.1%
Q2 2025-0.4%+0.7%+15.4%
Q1 2025+8.1%+10.0%+17.0%
Q4 2024+6.7%+10.3%-0.7%
Q3 2024-0.5%+2.2%+5.7%
Q2 2024-17.2%-14.6%-6.8%
Q1 2024-7.0%-4.5%-8.7%
Q4 2023-2.9%-4.1%+11.4%
Q3 2023-1.2%+1.4%+5.7%
Q2 2023-0.9%+0.9%-1.4%
Q1 2023-3.4%-5.9%-5.5%
Q4 2022-4.2%-6.2%-18.5%
Q3 2022+1.3%+2.9%+12.7%
Q2 2022+2.1%+0.8%-3.5%
Q1 2022-6.6%-11.7%-8.8%
Q4 2021+2.5%+2.1%-4.0%
Q3 2021+10.1%+11.6%-8.1%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2021-9.1%-7.6%-3.9%
Q4 2020+4.0%+2.0%+3.8%
Q3 2020+10.6%+15.4%+34.5%
Q2 2020+5.1%+10.7%+13.3%
Q1 2020+15.5%+1.7%+49.3%
Q4 2019-4.0%-3.4%-47.5%
Q3 2019-1.1%-1.6%+1.3%
Q2 2019+3.6%+0.7%+8.2%
Q1 2019+1.5%+0.5%+0.5%
Q4 2018-0.2%-0.5%-14.7%
Q3 2018-0.2%-3.7%-10.2%
Q2 2018+1.7%+1.8%-0.4%
Q1 2018-0.6%+0.6%+1.8%
Q4 2017+1.5%-3.1%-8.5%
Q3 2017+1.3%-3.2%+2.8%
Q2 2017+8.3%+8.1%+3.0%
Q1 2017-4.5%-7.5%-0.8%
Q4 2016-4.7%-2.6%-5.6%
Q3 2016+4.7%+4.8%+16.3%
Q2 2016+1.5%-0.4%+4.8%
Q1 2016+6.3%
Q4 2015+2.5%
Q3 2015+5.1%
Q2 2015+3.4%
Q1 2015+0.1%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014+1.1%
Q2 2014+4.9%
Q1 2014+3.6%
Q4 2013+5.2%
Q3 2013+3.4%
Q2 2013-1.5%
Q1 2013+2.0%
Q4 2012+5.9%
Q3 2012+2.8%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012-6.2%
Q1 2011-6.2%
Q4 2011+1.8%
Q3 2011+2.6%
Q3 2010+2.6%
Q2 2010+7.1%
Q2 2011+7.1%
Q4 2010+7.1%
Q1 2010

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