NYSE$AL

Air Lease Corporation · Q1 2021 earnings

Q1 2021 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Announced financial results for the first quarter of 2021.

Air Lease Corporation (ALC) reported a decrease in revenues by 7.1% to $474.8 million compared to the same period last year. Net income available to common stockholders was $80.2 million, and diluted earnings per share was $0.70.

  • Took delivery of 10 aircraft from orderbook, representing approximately $602 million in aircraft investments.
  • Placed 95% of contracted orderbook positions on long-term leases for aircraft delivering through the end of 2022 and 80% through the end of 2023.
  • Ended the quarter with $26.8 billion in committed minimum future rental payments.
  • To date, 46% of the lease deferrals granted have been repaid, representing $111.6 million.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$475M

Previous: $511M-7.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.03

Previous: $1.61-36.0%
Net book value fleet

$20.8B

Previous: $19.2B+8.3%
Weighted avg fleet age

4.3

Previous: 3.7+16.2%
Weighted avg lease term

6.9

Previous: 7.2-4.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$41.9M

Previous: $51.6M-181.3%
Free Cash Flow

$42.2M

Previous: $182M-76.9%
Net Income

$84.1M

Previous: $137M-38.7%
Operating Income

$104M

Previous: $172M-39.7%
Gross Profit

$475M

Previous: $215M+120.9%
Cash & Equivalents

$1.33B

Previous: $733M+81.2%
Total Assets

$25.2B

Previous: $22.7B+11.1%
Stock-Based Comp

$5.41M

Previous: $4.43M+22.1%

Revenue & EPS history

ALC · Revenue · Quarterly

$475M

Q1 2021-7.1%vs Q1 2020
Beat estimate in 12 of 16 quarters(75%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ALC · $561M total across 1 segment · Q4 2022

  • Rental of flight equipment
    $561M

Forward guidance

Company expects challenges when transitioning, acquiring or selling aircraft due to travel restrictions and other impacts from COVID-19.

Tailwinds

  • Company has planned capital expenditures for the remainder of 2021 and beyond based on currently expected delivery schedules.
  • Capital expenditures will be less than what was planned prior to the pandemic, which will slow revenue growth.
  • Capital expenditures will further improve strong liquidity position.
  • Company expects aircraft sales activity to increase in 2021 compared to 2020.
  • Company has continued to access the unsecured debt capital markets issuing approximately $3.8 billion in aggregate principal Medium-Term Notes with a weighted average interest rate of 2.6%.

Headwinds

  • Aircraft delivery schedule could continue to be subject to material changes.
  • Aircraft sales activity will not return to pre-pandemic levels during 2021.
  • Travel restrictions and other impacts from COVID-19 may cause challenges when transitioning, acquiring or selling aircraft.
  • COVID-19 has caused disruption in the financial markets.
  • Company cannot reasonably estimate the continued impacts of COVID-19 on business, results of operations and financial condition for the foreseeable future.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 19 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q1 2021

Historical avgQ1 2021

+1.3%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.2%

Avg return

5 days after

+1.2%

Avg return

30 days after

62%

39 / 63 earnings

Positive

+15.5%

Q1 2020

Best reaction

-17.2%

Q2 2024

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026
Q4 2025+0.1%+0.2%-0.1%
Q3 2025-0.3%-0.1%+0.1%
Q2 2025-0.4%+0.7%+15.4%
Q1 2025+8.1%+10.0%+17.0%
Q4 2024+6.7%+10.3%-0.7%
Q3 2024-0.5%+2.2%+5.7%
Q2 2024-17.2%-14.6%-6.8%
Q1 2024-7.0%-4.5%-8.7%
Q4 2023-2.9%-4.1%+11.4%
Q3 2023-1.2%+1.4%+5.7%
Q2 2023-0.9%+0.9%-1.4%
Q1 2023-3.4%-5.9%-5.5%
Q4 2022-4.2%-6.2%-18.5%
Q3 2022+1.3%+2.9%+12.7%
Q2 2022+2.1%+0.8%-3.5%
Q1 2022-6.6%-11.7%-8.8%
Q4 2021+2.5%+2.1%-4.0%
Q3 2021+10.1%+11.6%-8.1%
Q2 2021+1.0%+1.0%-3.6%
Q1 2021-9.1%-7.6%-3.9%
Q4 2020+4.0%+2.0%+3.8%
Q3 2020+10.6%+15.4%+34.5%
Q2 2020+5.1%+10.7%+13.3%
Q1 2020+15.5%+1.7%+49.3%
Q4 2019-4.0%-3.4%-47.5%
Q3 2019-1.1%-1.6%+1.3%
Q2 2019+3.6%+0.7%+8.2%
Q1 2019+1.5%+0.5%+0.5%
Q4 2018-0.2%-0.5%-14.7%
Q3 2018-0.2%-3.7%-10.2%
Q2 2018+1.7%+1.8%-0.4%
Q1 2018-0.6%+0.6%+1.8%
Q4 2017+1.5%-3.1%-8.5%
Q3 2017+1.3%-3.2%+2.8%
Q2 2017+8.3%+8.1%+3.0%
Q1 2017-4.5%-7.5%-0.8%
Q4 2016-4.7%-2.6%-5.6%
Q3 2016+4.7%+4.8%+16.3%
Q2 2016+1.5%-0.4%+4.8%
Q1 2016+6.3%
Q4 2015+2.5%
Q3 2015+5.1%
Q2 2015+3.4%
Q1 2015+0.1%
Q4 2014-1.3%
Q3 2014+1.1%
Q2 2014+4.9%
Q1 2014+3.6%
Q4 2013+5.2%
Q3 2013+3.4%
Q2 2013-1.5%
Q1 2013+2.0%
Q4 2012+5.9%
Q3 2012+2.8%
Q2 2012-0.6%
Q1 2012-6.2%
Q1 2011-6.2%
Q4 2011+1.8%
Q3 2011+2.6%
Q3 2010+2.6%
Q2 2010+7.1%
Q2 2011+7.1%
Q4 2010+7.1%
Q1 2010

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