NYSE$ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co · Q4 2023 earnings

Q4 2023 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

ADM reported a decrease in earnings for Q4 2023, impacted by lower margins and unplanned downtime, while announcing a new share repurchase program.

ADM's Q4 2023 earnings were lower compared to the previous year, with a decrease in adjusted segment operating profit and adjusted EPS. The decline was attributed to lower pricing and execution margins, lower equity earnings, and unplanned downtime, partially offset by improved manufacturing costs.

  • GAAP EPS was $1.06, down 42% compared to Q4 2022.
  • Adjusted EPS was $1.36, a 30% decrease compared to the prior year period.
  • Segment operating profit was $1,235 million, a 23% decrease year-over-year.
  • Adjusted segment operating profit was $1,399 million, down 16% from Q4 2022.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$23B

Previous: $26.2B-12.4%
EPS (adj)

$1.36

Previous: $1.93-29.5%
Capital Expenditures

-$439M

Previous: $478M-191.8%
Net Income

$565M

Previous: $1.02B-44.6%
Operating Income

$1.24B

Previous: $1.61B-23.3%
Gross Profit

$1.06B

Previous: $1.76B-39.8%
Stock-Based Comp

$14M

Previous: $24M-41.7%

Revenue & EPS history

ADM · Revenue · Quarterly

$23B

Q4 2023-12.4%vs Q4 2022
Beat estimate in 4 of 15 quarters(27%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ADM · $21.6B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Ag Services & Oilseeds
    $16.5B-13.9%
  • Carbohydrate Solutions
    $3.33B-7.1%
  • Nutrition
    $1.78B-4.3%

Forward guidance

ADM expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $5.25 to $6.25 for the full year 2024, reflecting moderating margin conditions and higher costs offsetting improved volumes.

Tailwinds

  • Global grain and oilseed supply is expected to increase.
  • Strong volumes and lower energy costs are anticipated to support margin expansion in starches and sweeteners.
  • Nutrition segment is expected to see mid single digit revenue growth.
  • Operating income is expected to be higher in Nutrition versus 2023.
  • Vegetable oil demand growth from renewable diesel and low single digit soybean meal demand growth to support structural margin improvement.

Headwinds

  • Moderating margin conditions are expected.
  • Higher costs are anticipated.
  • Global soybean crush margin will decline in 2024.
  • Milling margins are expected to be lower.
  • Ethanol margins are expected to be lower.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2023

Historical avgQ4 2023

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

35 / 70 earnings

Positive

+8.5%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-9.7%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.6%+1.9%+7.3%
Q4 2025-0.4%-2.6%-2.3%
Q3 2025+0.1%-5.2%-1.2%
Q2 2025+6.0%+6.4%+13.9%
Q1 2025+1.7%+2.2%-1.1%
Q4 2024-5.1%-8.5%-3.9%
Q3 2024-0.7%-0.4%-6.6%
Q2 2024-2.0%-6.9%-3.9%
Q1 2024-3.8%-2.5%-0.9%
Q4 2023+6.1%+8.0%+14.0%
Q3 2023-1.9%-3.3%+2.7%
Q2 2023+4.6%+3.9%-3.3%
Q1 2023-4.7%-3.4%-8.8%
Q4 2022-2.3%-3.2%-4.8%
Q3 2022+4.8%+6.3%+8.4%
Q2 2022+6.4%+9.5%+20.2%
Q1 2022+3.3%-1.5%-2.9%
Q4 2021+5.4%+10.7%+10.6%
Q3 2021-3.2%-3.6%-0.5%
Q2 2021+0.3%+2.2%+2.2%
Q1 2021+5.2%+5.3%+11.0%
Q4 2020-6.6%-5.8%+8.0%
Q3 2020-6.6%-3.3%+1.9%
Q2 2020+1.8%+0.8%+5.4%
Q1 2020-0.1%-6.5%+5.8%
Q4 2019+4.3%+2.4%-14.3%
Q3 2019+4.7%+6.0%+5.9%
Q2 2019-2.5%-8.9%-7.4%
Q1 2019+3.7%+5.6%-6.1%
Q4 2018-5.9%-6.1%-5.2%
Q3 2018+0.4%+0.3%-5.3%
Q2 2018+1.6%+5.5%+6.4%
Q1 2018-2.1%-3.3%-3.7%
Q4 2017+3.9%+2.2%+6.6%
Q3 2017-5.1%-7.1%-6.8%
Q2 2017+0.7%+1.0%-2.0%
Q1 2017-9.7%-7.2%-8.6%
Q4 2016-1.3%-0.4%+0.9%
Q3 2016+8.5%+7.7%+1.7%
Q2 2016-0.7%+0.5%-2.5%
Q1 2016-3.8%
Q4 2015-5.7%
Q3 2015-7.0%
Q2 2015+1.1%
Q1 2015-0.8%
Q4 2014-4.2%
Q3 2014+6.5%
Q2 2014+3.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013-0.6%
Q3 2013+2.9%
Q2 2013-0.3%
Q1 2013-1.0%
Q4 2012-6.6%
Q3 2012+6.9%
Q2 2012-1.8%
Q1 2012+4.0%
Q4 2011-2.8%
Q3 2011-4.5%
Q2 2011-1.8%
Q1 2011-2.0%
Q4 2008+0.9%
Q4 2010+0.9%
Q3 2010+4.2%
Q3 2009+4.2%
Q2 2010-2.3%
Q4 2009+0.1%
Q1 2009+0.1%
Q2 2009+0.1%
Q1 2010+0.1%

Discussion

Share your read of this quarter. Sign-in carries your eToro identity.

Join the conversation

Sign in with eToro to post your read of this quarter and vote on others'.

Sign in with eToro