NYSE$ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co · Q4 2024 earnings

Q4 2024 earnings · · Before market open · Investor relations

Briefing

ADM reported mixed Q4 2024 results with GAAP EPS up but adjusted EPS and segment operating profit down year-over-year. The company announced cost-saving initiatives and a dividend increase.

ADM's Q4 2024 earnings showed a mixed performance. GAAP EPS increased, but adjusted EPS and total segment operating profit decreased compared to the prior year. The company is focusing on cost savings and has announced a dividend increase.

  • GAAP earnings per share were $1.17, up 10% from the prior year quarter.
  • Adjusted earnings per share were $1.14, down 16% versus the prior year quarter.
  • Total segment operating profit was $1,051 million, down 16% versus the prior year quarter.
  • Announced targeted actions to deliver $500 – 750 million in cost savings over the next several years.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$21.5B

Previous: $23B-6.5%
EPS (adj)

$1.14

Previous: $1.36-16.2%
Capital Expenditures

-$492M

Previous: -$439M-12.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$180M

No prior period
Net Income

$567M

Previous: $565M+0.4%
Operating Income

$667M

Previous: $1.24B-46.0%
Gross Profit

$1.36B

Previous: $1.06B+28.0%

Revenue & EPS history

ADM · Revenue · Quarterly

$21.5B

Q4 2024-6.5%vs Q4 2023
Beat estimate in 4 of 15 quarters(27%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ADM · $21.6B total across 3 segments · Q3 2023

  • Ag Services & Oilseeds
    $16.5B-13.9%
  • Carbohydrate Solutions
    $3.33B-7.1%
  • Nutrition
    $1.78B-4.3%

Forward guidance

ADM expects adjusted earnings per share in the range of $4.00 to $4.75 per share for the full year 2025, reflecting weaker market fundamentals and on-going biofuel and trade policy uncertainty.

Tailwinds

  • Focused on improving operational performance
  • Accelerating costs savings
  • Simplifying our portfolio
  • Targeted actions to deliver $500 – 750 million in cost savings over the next several years.
  • Maintaining disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation

Headwinds

  • Softer market conditions going into 2025
  • Policy uncertainty around the world going into 2025
  • Weaker market fundamentals
  • On-going biofuel policy uncertainty
  • Trade policy uncertainty

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2024

Historical avgQ4 2024

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

35 / 70 earnings

Positive

+8.5%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-9.7%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.6%+1.9%+7.3%
Q4 2025-0.4%-2.6%-2.3%
Q3 2025+0.1%-5.2%-1.2%
Q2 2025+6.0%+6.4%+13.9%
Q1 2025+1.7%+2.2%-1.1%
Q4 2024-5.1%-8.5%-3.9%
Q3 2024-0.7%-0.4%-6.6%
Q2 2024-2.0%-6.9%-3.9%
Q1 2024-3.8%-2.5%-0.9%
Q4 2023+6.1%+8.0%+14.0%
Q3 2023-1.9%-3.3%+2.7%
Q2 2023+4.6%+3.9%-3.3%
Q1 2023-4.7%-3.4%-8.8%
Q4 2022-2.3%-3.2%-4.8%
Q3 2022+4.8%+6.3%+8.4%
Q2 2022+6.4%+9.5%+20.2%
Q1 2022+3.3%-1.5%-2.9%
Q4 2021+5.4%+10.7%+10.6%
Q3 2021-3.2%-3.6%-0.5%
Q2 2021+0.3%+2.2%+2.2%
Q1 2021+5.2%+5.3%+11.0%
Q4 2020-6.6%-5.8%+8.0%
Q3 2020-6.6%-3.3%+1.9%
Q2 2020+1.8%+0.8%+5.4%
Q1 2020-0.1%-6.5%+5.8%
Q4 2019+4.3%+2.4%-14.3%
Q3 2019+4.7%+6.0%+5.9%
Q2 2019-2.5%-8.9%-7.4%
Q1 2019+3.7%+5.6%-6.1%
Q4 2018-5.9%-6.1%-5.2%
Q3 2018+0.4%+0.3%-5.3%
Q2 2018+1.6%+5.5%+6.4%
Q1 2018-2.1%-3.3%-3.7%
Q4 2017+3.9%+2.2%+6.6%
Q3 2017-5.1%-7.1%-6.8%
Q2 2017+0.7%+1.0%-2.0%
Q1 2017-9.7%-7.2%-8.6%
Q4 2016-1.3%-0.4%+0.9%
Q3 2016+8.5%+7.7%+1.7%
Q2 2016-0.7%+0.5%-2.5%
Q1 2016-3.8%
Q4 2015-5.7%
Q3 2015-7.0%
Q2 2015+1.1%
Q1 2015-0.8%
Q4 2014-4.2%
Q3 2014+6.5%
Q2 2014+3.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013-0.6%
Q3 2013+2.9%
Q2 2013-0.3%
Q1 2013-1.0%
Q4 2012-6.6%
Q3 2012+6.9%
Q2 2012-1.8%
Q1 2012+4.0%
Q4 2011-2.8%
Q3 2011-4.5%
Q2 2011-1.8%
Q1 2011-2.0%
Q4 2008+0.9%
Q4 2010+0.9%
Q3 2010+4.2%
Q3 2009+4.2%
Q2 2010-2.3%
Q4 2009+0.1%
Q1 2009+0.1%
Q2 2009+0.1%
Q1 2010+0.1%

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