NYSE$ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

Reported fourth quarter earnings of $1.22 per share and $1.21 per share on an adjusted basis, affirming earnings growth expectation for 2021.

ADM reported strong Q4 2020 results, with adjusted EPS up 49% excluding the prior-year impact of the retroactive biodiesel tax credit. The company expects growth in operating profit and EPS in 2021.

  • Q4 net earnings were $687 million; adjusted net earnings were $684 million.
  • Q4 adjusted EPS was up 49 percent excluding prior-year impact of retroactive biodiesel tax credit
  • Full-year reported EPS was $3.15; record adjusted EPS of $3.59
  • ADM expects growth in operating profit and EPS in 2021.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$18B

Previous: $16.3B+10.1%
EPS (adj)

$1.21

Previous: $1.42-14.8%
Capital Expenditures

$265M

Previous: $262M+1.1%
Free Cash Flow

-$1.14B

Previous: -$2.08B+45.3%
Net Income

$687M

Previous: $504M+36.3%
Operating Income

$1.14B

Previous: $934M+21.9%
Gross Profit

$1.35B

Previous: $1.17B+15.7%
Cash & Equivalents

$666M

Previous: $852M-21.8%
Total Assets

$33.6B

Previous: $31.5B+6.7%
Stock-Based Comp

$37M

Previous: $23M+60.9%

Revenue & EPS history

ADM · Revenue · Quarterly

$18B

Q4 2020+10.1%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 13 of 16 quarters(81%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

ADM · $17.9B total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • Ag Services & Oilseeds
    $14.4B+16.3%
  • Carbohydrate Solutions
    $2.08B-16.1%
  • Nutrition
    $1.44B+1.9%

Forward guidance

Based on the continued delivery of drivers under our control and improving market conditions as the year progresses, ADM expects strong growth in segment operating profit and another record year of EPS in 2021.

Tailwinds

  • Expect strong growth in segment operating profit in 2021.
  • Expect another record year of EPS in 2021.
  • Confident in another outstanding performance from Ag Services & Oilseeds in 2021 due to strong global demand for grains and oilseeds as well as meal and oils.
  • Carbohydrate Solutions business is well positioned to generate solid profit growth in 2021 as lockdown impacts dissipate.
  • The Nutrition team is expected to deliver solid revenue expansion and profit growth in 2021 based on current organic growth plans.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.0%

Avg return

Earnings day

-0.0%

Avg return

5 days after

+0.8%

Avg return

30 days after

50%

35 / 70 earnings

Positive

+8.5%

Q3 2016

Best reaction

-9.7%

Q1 2017

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+1.6%+1.9%+7.3%
Q4 2025-0.4%-2.6%-2.3%
Q3 2025+0.1%-5.2%-1.2%
Q2 2025+6.0%+6.4%+13.9%
Q1 2025+1.7%+2.2%-1.1%
Q4 2024-5.1%-8.5%-3.9%
Q3 2024-0.7%-0.4%-6.6%
Q2 2024-2.0%-6.9%-3.9%
Q1 2024-3.8%-2.5%-0.9%
Q4 2023+6.1%+8.0%+14.0%
Q3 2023-1.9%-3.3%+2.7%
Q2 2023+4.6%+3.9%-3.3%
Q1 2023-4.7%-3.4%-8.8%
Q4 2022-2.3%-3.2%-4.8%
Q3 2022+4.8%+6.3%+8.4%
Q2 2022+6.4%+9.5%+20.2%
Q1 2022+3.3%-1.5%-2.9%
Q4 2021+5.4%+10.7%+10.6%
Q3 2021-3.2%-3.6%-0.5%
Q2 2021+0.3%+2.2%+2.2%
Q1 2021+5.2%+5.3%+11.0%
Q4 2020-6.6%-5.8%+8.0%
Q3 2020-6.6%-3.3%+1.9%
Q2 2020+1.8%+0.8%+5.4%
Q1 2020-0.1%-6.5%+5.8%
Q4 2019+4.3%+2.4%-14.3%
Q3 2019+4.7%+6.0%+5.9%
Q2 2019-2.5%-8.9%-7.4%
Q1 2019+3.7%+5.6%-6.1%
Q4 2018-5.9%-6.1%-5.2%
Q3 2018+0.4%+0.3%-5.3%
Q2 2018+1.6%+5.5%+6.4%
Q1 2018-2.1%-3.3%-3.7%
Q4 2017+3.9%+2.2%+6.6%
Q3 2017-5.1%-7.1%-6.8%
Q2 2017+0.7%+1.0%-2.0%
Q1 2017-9.7%-7.2%-8.6%
Q4 2016-1.3%-0.4%+0.9%
Q3 2016+8.5%+7.7%+1.7%
Q2 2016-0.7%+0.5%-2.5%
Q1 2016-3.8%
Q4 2015-5.7%
Q3 2015-7.0%
Q2 2015+1.1%
Q1 2015-0.8%
Q4 2014-4.2%
Q3 2014+6.5%
Q2 2014+3.6%
Q1 2014-1.5%
Q4 2013-0.6%
Q3 2013+2.9%
Q2 2013-0.3%
Q1 2013-1.0%
Q4 2012-6.6%
Q3 2012+6.9%
Q2 2012-1.8%
Q1 2012+4.0%
Q4 2011-2.8%
Q3 2011-4.5%
Q2 2011-1.8%
Q1 2011-2.0%
Q4 2008+0.9%
Q4 2010+0.9%
Q3 2010+4.2%
Q3 2009+4.2%
Q2 2010-2.3%
Q4 2009+0.1%
Q1 2009+0.1%
Q2 2009+0.1%
Q1 2010+0.1%

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