NASDAQ$UAL

United Airlines Holdings Inc · Q4 2020 earnings

Q4 2020 earnings · · Investor relations

Briefing

United Airlines reported a net loss and a decrease in operating revenue compared to Q4 2019, but made progress in reducing core cash burn and identified cost savings.

United Airlines announced Q4 and full-year 2020 financial results, reporting a net loss of $1.9 billion for the quarter and a 69% decrease in operating revenue compared to Q4 2019. However, the company has raised over $26 billion in liquidity and reduced core cash burn to $19 million per day.

  • Reported fourth-quarter net loss of $1.9 billion.
  • Reported fourth-quarter total operating revenue of $3.4 billion, down 69% versus fourth-quarter 2019.
  • Reported fourth-quarter core cash burn of $19 million per day, an improvement of an average of $5 million per day versus the third-quarter 2020.
  • Company expects 2021 to be a transition year focused on preparing for a recovery and anticipates exceeding its 2019 adjusted EBITDA margin by 2023.

Headline financials

Total Revenue

$3.41B

Previous: $10.9B-68.7%
EPS (adj)

-$7.00

Previous: $2.67-362.2%
PRASM

7.85

Previous: 0.14+5515.2%
Load Factor

55.6%

Previous: 82.5%-32.6%
Passenger Yield

14.12

Previous: 0.169+8235.3%
Passengers

14.8M

Previous: 40.3M-63.2%
ASMs

30.7B

Previous: 71.0B-56.8%
RPMs

17.1B

Previous: 58.6B-70.9%
Net Income

-$1.9B

Previous: $641M-395.9%
Operating Income

-$2.14B

Previous: $861M-348.0%
Gross Profit

-$1.38B

Previous: $3.04B-145.4%
Cash & Equivalents

$11.3B

Previous: $2.76B+308.0%
Total Assets

$59.5B

Previous: $52.6B+13.2%

Revenue & EPS history

United Airlines · Revenue · Quarterly

$3.41B

Q4 2020-68.7%vs Q4 2019
Beat estimate in 11 of 16 quarters(69%)
ActualEstimate

Revenue by segment

United Airlines · $3.41B total across 3 segments · Q4 2020

  • Passenger
    $2.41B-75.7%
  • Cargo
    $560M+77.2%
  • Other Operating
    $442M-30.8%

Forward guidance

Based on current trends, the company expects first quarter 2021 total operating revenue to be down 65 percent to 70 percent versus the first quarter 2019. Expects first quarter 2021 capacity to be down at least 51 percent versus the first quarter of 2019. Expects first quarter 2021 ending available liquidity to be similar to year-end 2020 available liquidity of around $19.7 billion1.

Tailwinds

  • Accelerated distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine may lead to faster improvement.
  • Company expects 2021 ending available liquidity to be similar to year-end 2020 available liquidity of around $19.7 billion.
  • Company continues to improve core cash burn in the face of continued COVID-19 headwinds.
  • Company sharpens focus to prepare for recovery.
  • Company expects to exceed 2019 Adjusted EBITDA margin by 2023.

Headwinds

  • Company expects first quarter 2021 total operating revenue to be down 65 percent to 70 percent versus the first quarter 2019.
  • Company expects first quarter 2021 capacity to be down at least 51 percent versus the first quarter of 2019.
  • COVID-19 has changed United Airlines forever.
  • Reported fourth-quarter net loss of $1.9 billion.
  • Reported fourth-quarter total operating revenue of $3.4 billion, down 69% versus fourth-quarter 2019.

Historical earnings impact

How earnings announcements have historically affected this stock's price.

Avg. return before/after earnings

Based on 20 quarterly earnings reports · overlaid with Q4 2020

Historical avgQ4 2020

-0.5%

Avg return

Earnings day

+0.8%

Avg return

5 days after

+3.4%

Avg return

30 days after

48%

33 / 69 earnings

Positive

+18.8%

Q1 2024

Best reaction

-15.4%

Q2 2010

Worst reaction

Earnings price reactions
QuarterReport dateReaction (Day 0)+5 days+30 days
Q1 2026+0.7%-5.4%+3.0%
Q4 2025-1.2%-0.7%+4.1%
Q3 2025-5.8%-3.8%-8.7%
Q2 2025+1.8%+0.7%+7.5%
Q1 2025-0.0%-2.5%+16.3%
Q4 2024+0.5%-2.2%-4.6%
Q3 2024+13.4%+16.7%+43.5%
Q2 2024-1.4%+2.4%-10.6%
Q1 2024+18.8%+25.2%+33.5%
Q4 2023+4.3%+9.6%+13.5%
Q3 2023-8.3%-11.2%-0.6%
Q2 2023+3.2%+2.3%-10.4%
Q1 2023+9.2%+4.9%+13.6%
Q4 2022-5.4%-4.2%-5.2%
Q3 2022+8.3%+12.0%+19.8%
Q2 2022-9.7%-12.4%-9.6%
Q1 2022+10.7%+11.6%-5.2%
Q4 2021-6.0%-9.3%+4.0%
Q3 2021-2.6%-0.9%+0.6%
Q2 2021+10.7%+9.4%+1.1%
Q1 2021-10.0%-4.9%-0.1%
Q4 2020-4.8%-9.8%+7.3%
Q3 2020-2.9%+0.7%+10.6%
Q2 2020-2.0%+1.7%+5.3%
Q1 2020-14.7%-22.7%-10.2%
Q4 2019-7.1%-8.7%-10.9%
Q3 2019+3.1%+3.6%+6.4%
Q2 2019+3.8%+2.7%-10.6%
Q1 2019+5.6%+4.4%-2.3%
Q4 2018+8.1%-3.2%+8.6%
Q3 2018+8.8%+7.5%+13.1%
Q2 2018+9.3%+12.0%+13.3%
Q1 2018+4.9%+6.6%+3.2%
Q4 2017-10.2%+14.4%-7.5%
Q3 2017-11.5%-12.5%-13.8%
Q2 2017-6.9%-10.3%-18.9%
Q1 2017-1.9%+0.7%+10.3%
Q4 2016-0.4%+4.3%+2.4%
Q3 2016+0.9%+4.5%+23.1%
Q2 2016+1.2%-0.3%-0.2%
Q1 2016-9.1%
Q4 2015+3.5%
Q3 2015+9.4%
Q2 2015-1.0%
Q1 2015-0.8%
Q4 2014+5.6%
Q3 2014+1.1%
Q2 2014+1.7%
Q1 2014-14.4%
Q4 2013-6.2%
Q3 2013+0.7%
Q2 2013+3.7%
Q1 2013-0.8%
Q4 2012+2.0%
Q3 2012-5.2%
Q2 2012-6.6%
Q1 2012-3.5%
Q4 2011-2.8%
Q4 2008-2.8%
Q3 2011-4.6%
Q4 2010-4.6%
Q2 2011-4.6%
Q1 2010+4.8%
Q1 2011-3.8%
Q2 2010-15.4%
Q3 2009+0.3%
Q3 2010+0.3%
Q2 2009+2.8%
Q4 2009+2.8%

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